To be honest, think carefully about this matter! Trump keeps shouting for the return of manufacturing, claiming to work on a century-long plan, but the most ruthless move is to sacrifice his own stock market. Don’t doubt it, I’ll break down three harsh realities for you:
First point, the Fed is his arch-rival! Powell and his team insist that US economic data is good enough to reach heaven, and they still dare to say 'Higher for Longer' despite inflation not being suppressed. But Trump knows very well—high interest rates mean the dollar's hegemony is as stable as a mountain; where is the motivation for manufacturing to return to the US? So now he’s like holding a torch forcing the Fed to release liquidity, but they just won’t budge!
Second point, the US stock market is his most handy tool. Do you know how much Americans rely on the stock market? 64% of household assets are tied up in the stock market, and the consumer market directly follows the index. Once the US stock market drops by 30%, even the grandmas will have to save money on groceries, and the inflation data will immediately show a cliff-like plunge. This move is much more effective than a trade war, after all, the common people’s wallets are quicker to react than factory assembly lines!
Thirdly, this is essentially a gamble. Trump is now like someone playing Russian roulette, betting that a collapse of the US stock market won't trigger a financial tsunami. But don't forget, the lessons from the 2008 subprime crisis are still fresh; Wall Street won't easily play the fool. However, if CPI really falls below 2%, where will the Fed put its face? Once the interest rate cut channel opens, a combo of dollar depreciation + low interest rates will naturally lead to the return of manufacturing.
To put it simply, this is a meticulously designed 'stress test'. The Trump team probably calculated long ago: a 10% drop in the stock market can be endured, but a 20% drop will cause trouble. But do you think he really dares to let the stock market collapse? I actually think this is more like a smokescreen—while singing the blues about the stock market to create panic, they are secretly laying out plans in cryptocurrency and emerging markets. After all, which politician who truly understands finance would go against their own treasury?
Lastly, here's a heartbreaking truth: We in the crypto space study K-lines all day but fail to notice that the top-level design has already set a scythe at our necks. If the US stock market really collapses, global asset pricing power will shift, and at that time, discussions about Bitcoin halving and Ethereum upgrades will look trivial. This game is far more important than just focusing on the Fed’s speeches! #美股崩盘 #BTC
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