#交易分析101 This involves a cognitive bias where many investors believe it will play out like last time, with a replica market trend, which is actually a form of cognitive distortion. Why do I say this?

Because subjective and objective factors have changed.

Subjectively, the audience of the market has changed; it is no longer just speculation in the secondary market. The audience is starting to develop towards the primary market, and there are more smart people in the market whose actions lead to a stronger wealth effect for them. They will undoubtedly focus on new investments rather than old ones. The last replica market will not be taken seriously by them.

Objectively, there are more investment targets available in the market, and these targets, compared to replicas, are more suitable for speculation and have lower entry barriers. There is no selling pressure similar to that of replicas, in other words, the speed of making money is faster.

Considering the above factors, it can be concluded that expecting a replica season is highly likely to be like trying to catch a sword thrown into the river.