I recently traveled from Guangdong to Nanning, then north to Duan, and just arrived in Bama last night, busy without time to update externally.

Just right, it was too hot during the day, so I took the opportunity to write something for everyone to follow up on the market situation and operational ideas.

A key piece of information was released on Tuesday (July 9) —

"On Tuesday, the U.S. Treasury announced plans to increase the cash reserves of the Treasury General Account (TGA) from about $313 billion on July 3 to $500 billion by the end of July, expecting to reach a level consistent with the cash balance policy of about $850 billion in September. According to the Treasury's statement, this target is consistent with previous forecasts, but the rebuilding pace is milder."

At the same time, funding will be raised by increasing the weekly benchmark Treasury auction size rather than issuing cash management bills. This method has a relatively low impact on market liquidity supply, and due to high deficit spending in July and August, the Treasury Department cannot quickly replenish the TGA; more incremental funding will be completed in September.

Based on this, before Bitcoin's breakout, I provided three operational suggestions internally within the community —

1. In terms of patterns, most altcoins have stopped falling; a sell-off may quickly rebound.

2. Abandon short selling, go long on spot.

3. The breakout has occurred; it seems the short-term liquidity disturbance is limited, so hold onto spot for now.

You can verify against the timing I posted; they all indicated before the market started to rally significantly.

To put it plainly, compared to the initial judgment a week ago, the rise and fall rhythm has reversed, meaning that the previous judgment was that there would be pressure in early July and August, followed by a start at the end of August to September.

Currently, the short-term liquidity risk disturbance has been alleviated, coupled with the imminent Fed rate cuts, it is highly likely to start early, and the risk of a decline after mid-August to September will significantly increase.

In the current crypto market, apart from Bitcoin maintaining the traditional coin's continuous rally, other altcoins may spike and then immediately crash. Therefore, it is crucial to identify clear operational nodes and retreat as necessary.

Otherwise, it would be like drawing water with a basket, resulting in nothing.

Risk warning: Please do not use my information to engage in contracts; the information is for reference only. Articles can be relatively lagging, and I am not your father; I have no obligation to keep you updated on every market change.

If you don't even understand the entry position and stop-loss, it would be better to throw yourself into the river than to blindly commit to a particular direction of rise or fall.

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