Yesterday, I saw a piece of information and quickly sent a reminder to the community.
In hindsight, Bitcoin fell 3000 points as expected against the backdrop of the U.S. stock market hitting new highs.
I glanced at various reasons found within the circle.
As long as you are looking for reasons, reasons will always come knocking at your door. The one that is most intimidating and easiest to understand is—
"On July 4, according to Whale Alert monitoring, the eighth dormant Bitcoin whale address, which had been inactive for 14 years, has just been activated. As of now, this address has at least 80,009 BTC that have all been activated."
Can this news cause BTC to drop? Yes, but at most it will drop $300 and will quickly rebound.
Old Xu wants to tell everyone that the short-term script is that 108,000 is not a short-term bottom; it is highly likely to continue to fall and even break through the 100,000 mark again. It may take a couple of months before a new round of clear upward momentum begins.
What is the underlying logic behind that?
Is the trade war rising again?
"U.S. President Trump: Plans to impose tariffs ranging from 60% to 70% and from 10% to 20% on different countries. Countries will start paying these tariffs on August 1."
No, the panic effect of this news is not greater than that of the ancient whale; it does not determine the direction of the tide.
90% of the news is a facade story meant to fool the gullible. The factor that directly and fundamentally affects Bitcoin's trend is market liquidity. As a leading risk asset, Bitcoin is most sensitive to liquidity, and its trend can even lead the broader market.
The reason that is more likely to determine Bitcoin's trend in the next month is the One Big Beautiful Bill Act officially signed on July 4, which includes a key point of raising the debt ceiling from $4 trillion to $5 trillion. Although in the medium to long term, this is a positive for the capital market because it corresponds to the restart of fiscal expansion policies.
But in the short term, this bill will raise the U.S. debt ceiling, and the U.S. Treasury will start issuing bonds on a large scale to replenish the TGA account balance. In the absence of the Federal Reserve expanding its balance sheet to purchase bonds or even reducing its balance sheet, this will withdraw liquidity from the market rather than inject it, tightening market liquidity and putting pressure on the crypto market.
For the crypto market to see a real explosive surge, it may have to wait until late August to September for the dawn to come. The next couple of months will be quite risky, so be cautious when going long.
Say another horror story, even if the Federal Reserve officially cuts interest rates in the next few months, if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates, the rapid appreciation of the yen will force a large number of arbitrage trades to close, triggering a short-term global asset sell-off, which will also bring a brief market downturn, meaning that if you focus on visible good news, there is a high probability you will get hurt.
So-called positive news landing is actually negative news, which is a simplistic statement. Behind it, there are usually fine market operations affecting market liquidity. Generally, there is speculation that large positive news will rise before it lands, but at the moment of landing, there is often a short-term liquidity disturbance that causes a drop, and afterward, the positive news may still ferment and rise.
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