On March 4, 2025, two major storms hit the crypto market and the political arena simultaneously—a mysterious whale bet on Ethereum’s plunge with 50x leverage, with unrealized profits exceeding $78 million; while former U.S. President Trump suddenly blasted 'short sellers disrupting the market,' hinting at 'major actions' tomorrow. Amidst this intertwining, global investors hold their breath waiting for a potential historic market turning point.
1. The 'crazy bets' of the whale: 50x leveraged shorting of ETH sets records
1. Historic unrealized profits and risks
According to on-chain monitoring data, a certain giant whale has been shorting ETH with 50x leverage on the Hyperliquid platform since January 2025, opening at $3,429.45, with current unrealized profits soaring to $78 million. If the ETH price rises to $3,507.3, their position will be forcibly liquidated, with potential liquidation risks reaching $53.8 million. This operation is not only an extreme case of leveraged trading but is also viewed as a 'reverse ambush' on market trends.
2. From floating losses to huge profits: The dramatic reversal of strategy
This whale is not venturing for the first time. In December 2024, when it first shorted ETH with 50x leverage, it experienced a floating loss of $1.2 million, but through multiple margin calls (such as an additional $5 million USDC in January 2025), it ultimately turned a loss into a profit during the market correction. Its recent shift to Bitcoin shorts ($13.45 million, 50x leverage), although currently showing a floating loss of $60,000, represents only 1/4 of the historical peak, demonstrating a flexible risk management strategy.
2. Trump's 'anti-short' rhetoric: Political games ignite the market powder keg
1. The undercurrent of 'whales betting on Trump’s victory'
In October 2024, an anonymous account 'zxgngl' placed a $7.22 million bet on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket for Trump’s victory, raising his probability of winning to 66.3%. This action is interpreted as the market's early reaction to Trump's policy inclinations, especially the expectation that he might relax crypto regulations.
2. Trump’s surprise strike: Targeting short sellers
Recently, Trump, along with business leaders like Musk, publicly criticized short selling, calling it a 'market manipulation tool.' Muddy Waters CEO Carson Block warned that such rhetoric could incite populist sentiment, lead to sudden changes in regulatory policies, or even trigger panic selling in the market. Coincidentally, the whale's short position and Trump's remarks have almost simultaneously fermented, raising concerns about a hidden connection between the two.
3. Speculations on tomorrow’s 'big events': The market may face three major changes
1. Sudden changes in regulatory policies
The 'major actions' hinted at by Trump could involve SEC restrictions on short selling transactions or push for stricter leverage regulations in the crypto market. If realized, high-leverage positions (like the whale’s 50x short) will face policy-driven liquidation risks.
2. The life-and-death struggle of ETH prices
If the current ETH price breaks $3,507.3, the whale's position will be liquidated, potentially triggering a chain sell-off; conversely, if it continues to decline, its unrealized profits may exceed $100 million, attracting more follow-on short positions. Market liquidity may thus experience severe fluctuations.
3. Election funding flowing into the crypto market
If the bets by Trump supporters' 'whales' expand further, it may drive more political funds into prediction markets and crypto assets, forming a feedback loop of 'election results - policy expectations - price volatility.'
4. Investor warning: Survival rules under high volatility
1. Beware of the leverage "double-edged sword"
The case of the giant whale proves that even experienced traders can see their 50x leverage turn from loss to profit (or vice versa) within hours. Ordinary investors must set strict stop-losses to avoid becoming 'fuel' for the market.
2. Focus on 'Trump risk premium'
The influence of political rhetoric on the crypto market is rising. Investors need to track the dynamics of Trump's team in real-time, especially their statements on Federal Reserve policy, crypto tax regulations, and other issues.
3. Diversified allocation and hedging strategies
Balancing positions between ETH/BTC shorts and Trump-related assets (such as MAGA tokens, election contracts) can partially hedge against single market risks.
Conclusion
When the 'whale bets' meet the 'Trump storm,' market irrationality is being pushed to the extreme. Tomorrow may become one of the most iconic moments in crypto history—whether it is an epic liquidation or a policy black swan, investors must maintain awe to find opportunities in the eye of the storm.
