On August 22, 2025 (Friday) at 10 PM, global investors will focus on Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver an important speech at the global central bank annual meeting. This will not only affect the nerves of global financial markets but may also have far-reaching implications for the cryptocurrency market.
1. Speech background: Global macroeconomic uncertainty
Since 2025, the global economy has faced multiple challenges, including easing inflationary pressures, slowing economic growth, weakening momentum in the job market, and rising geopolitical uncertainties. The market is focused on whether Powell will signal a 'dovish' shift or continue to maintain high interest rate policies to curb potential inflation rebounds.
2. Three potential impact paths on the crypto market
1. If Powell signals a dovish stance (increased expectations for interest rate cuts)
Impact: Positive for the cryptocurrency market
A weakening dollar and improved liquidity expectations will drive up prices of major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Risk appetite in the crypto market is rising, and funds may flow back from traditional assets into the crypto space, with sub-sectors like DeFi, Layer 2, and GameFi possibly experiencing upward trends.
The market may anticipate the start of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle in 2026, further strengthening Bitcoin's 'digital gold' asset hedging attributes.
2. If Powell maintains a hawkish stance (long-term high interest rates)
Impact: Negative for the cryptocurrency market
Strong dollar expectations are reinforced, and traditional risk assets (especially crypto assets) face valuation compression pressure.
The stablecoin market may face selling pressure, with arbitrage funds for assets like USDT and USDC possibly flowing out.
On-chain liquidity continues to shrink, making it difficult for DeFi TVL to grow effectively, and the project financing environment is tightening.
3. Ambiguous or neutrally cautious speech
Impact: Short-term market fluctuations, but mid-term reliant on data
The crypto market may exhibit a pattern of 'rising first, then falling' or extreme fluctuations, with investors awaiting more employment, inflation, and other data to confirm policy direction.
Increased volatility, beneficial for quantitative trading strategies and high-frequency trading platforms.
3. Historical experience of Jackson Hole's impact on the crypto market
The policy tone of the Jackson Hole annual meeting often indicates the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in the coming months. When Powell proposed the 'average inflation targeting' in 2020, Bitcoin surged over 30% in the following two months. This indicates that the crypto market is highly sensitive to marginal changes in monetary policy.
Chairman Powell's speech at Jackson Hole may become a turning point for the repricing of global assets in the second half of 2025. For the crypto market, this speech will determine whether the market experiences a warm breeze or faces another cold wave. Regardless of the outcome, investors should be prepared for risk management and dynamic responses, embracing this era full of opportunities amid volatility.
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