Today, on February 28, 2025, the U.S. Core PCE data will be released at 16:30 Türkiye time (TSİ), and U.S. stock markets will open at 17:30 TSİ. These events could significantly impact global financial markets and cryptocurrencies. Let’s break it down:
📌U.S. Core PCE Data and Expectations
Core PCE is a key inflation indicator for the FED, excluding volatile food and energy prices. the monthly expectation for January is +0.3%, compared to the previous +0.2%. Annual figures aren’t specified, but markets anticipate a slight uptick.
- Above Expectations (>0.3%): Signals rising inflation, potentially strengthening the dollar and pressuring risky assets like stocks and crypto as FED rate hike odds rise.
- Below Expectations (<0.3%): Suggests controlled inflation, possibly weakening the dollar and boosting risk assets, including crypto, with earlier rate cut hopes.
- On Expectations (0.3%): Likely a neutral market reaction, though volatility may depend on other data and FED comments.
📌U.S. Stock Market Opening (TSİ 17:30)
When U.S. markets open, PCE’s initial impact will clarify:
- Positive Scenario (Low PCE): Stocks could rise with rate cut optimism, favoring tech and growth stocks.
- Negative Scenario (High PCE): Inflation fears might trigger a sell-off, increasing risk aversion.
📌Impact on Crypto
Crypto, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum, is sensitive to U.S. macro data and stock movements:
- High PCE: A stronger dollar and stock declines could pressure crypto short-term, though some see it as an inflation hedge longer-term.
- Low PCE: A weaker dollar and rising stocks could lift crypto, supporting Bitcoin above $100K and altcoin gains.
- Volatility: Expect swings at 16:30 TSİ (data release) and a clearer trend by 17:30 TSİ (market open).#PCE $BTC