Yangfei News 2025.2.28

【Market Data】

Bitcoin Market: $84665 (Market Share 59.74%)

Ahr999 Indicator: 0.87 (Regular Investment 0.45~1.2)

Greed Index: 16 (Extreme Fear) #比特币价格走势分析 $BTC

Yangfei News | Analysis of Key Bitcoin Market Indicators on February 28, 2025

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【Core Data Insights】

1. Price and Dominance

- Current Bitcoin Price: $84,665 (Market Cap Share 59.74%), short-term rebound does not change the downward trend, the market is still in the “bear market inertia” phase.

- Historical Comparison: Current price has retraced 23% from the January 2025 peak ($110,000), approaching the early levels of the 2024 bull market.

2. Ahr999 Indicator: 0.87

- Interpretation: Within the “Regular Investment Range” (0.45~1.2), long-term allocation value is prominent, but caution is needed for short-term indicator dulling risk (if it drops below 0.8 or accelerates to the bottom).

3. Greed Index: 16 (Extreme Fear)

- Signal Significance: Reached a new low since the 2022 LUNA crash, retail selling pressure is close to its peak, a contrarian investment window may have opened.

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【Three Key Contradictions】

| Contradiction Dimension | Bearish Logic | Bullish Logic |

| Macroeconomic Policy | Strong Dollar suppresses risk asset valuations | Panic sentiment may force a shift in Federal Reserve policy |

| Capital Flow | $2.4 billion outflow from ETFs in a week, institutions withdrawing | On-chain whale addresses increase their holdings to a three-month high |

| Technical Analysis | Daily chart breaks below 200-day moving average, bearish trend strengthens | Weekly RSI approaches oversold territory, rebound demand accumulates |

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【Simplified Operation Strategy】

- Short-term (within 1 month): If the price stabilizes above $82,000, consider light long positions; if it drops below $78,000, stop loss and observe.

- Long-term (6 months+): Monthly regular investment (Ahr999 < 1.2), focus on allocating Bitcoin + compliant AI tokens (like FET).

- Risk Hedging: Hold 5%~10% stablecoins to guard against the risk of consecutive exchange liquidations.

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Data Verification: The Greed Index deviates from price to reach historical extremes, with an average return rate exceeding 180% in similar situations over the past 10 years after 6 months.

Warning: The current leverage liquidation dense zone is $88,000~92,000, and a rebound to this area may trigger a new round of short squeezes.

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*Note: Data is compiled from CoinMarketCap, Glassnode, TradingView, strategies are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice.