1. **Short-term market dynamics: plunge and panic**
- **Prices fall below key support**: Bitcoin fell sharply in the short term on February 27, 2025, falling below $84,000 for the first time since November 2022. Ethereum also fell 5.6% and fell below $2,300.
- **Fear Dominates**: The Fear & Greed Index plummeted to 10 (Extreme Fear), reflecting a rapid deterioration in market sentiment and a significant increase in selling pressure. Historical data shows that extreme panic phases may be potential opportunities for reverse positioning.
- **Technical signals**: The candlestick chart shows that it is currently in a downward trend, and the trading volume is enlarged when the price falls, indicating that the selling pressure is intensifying. The Williams indicator does not show overbought or oversold, but the price is close to the new support level near $80,000. If it falls further, it may trigger a larger decline.
2. **Ahr999 indicator interpretation: the fixed investment window is still open**
- **Fixed investment range applicability**: The Ahr999 index of 0.87 is in the "fixed investment range" of 0.45~1.2, but compared with the historical lows of the current price ($84,276) (such as the plunge to $48,800 in August 2024), the current price is still high.
- **Strategy Recommendation**: If the market continues to fall and Ahr999 drops further (such as close to 0.45), the profit and loss ratio of the fixed investment may be higher; currently, we need to be vigilant about short-term volatility risks, and it is recommended to invest in batches rather than all at once.
3. Long-term drivers: halving and ETF inflows
- **Halving effect**: In April 2024, Bitcoin will complete its fourth halving (block reward drops to 3.125 BTC). Historical patterns show that prices may peak 12-18 months after the halving (estimated to reach $150,000-200,000 by the end of 2025).
- **ETF funding impact**: The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has continued to attract institutional funds since its approval in January 2024. The current total holdings exceed 732,000 bitcoins. The long-term lock-up effect may reduce the circulation volume and support the price.
- **Federal Reserve Policy**: The market expects that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in 2025, and the release of liquidity may further benefit risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Summarize
Bitcoin is dragged down by market panic and technical selling pressure in the short term, but will benefit from the halving cycle, institutional capital inflows and improved macro liquidity in the long term. There are structural opportunities in volatility. Investors need to weigh their risk appetite and dynamically adjust their strategies based on both technical and fundamental factors.