The future trend of Bitcoin: the long-short game and future prospects in the fog
Since its birth, Bitcoin has made waves in the global financial market with its unique decentralized characteristics and potential investment value. Its price trend is like a roller coaster, full of uncertainty, especially since 2025, the sharp fluctuations have caused all walks of life to think deeply about its future direction. As of February 2025, after experiencing previous high fluctuations, the price of Bitcoin showed a significant correction, falling below the $90,000 mark at one point, causing market panic.
Judging from historical price trends, Bitcoin prices are closely related to the halving cycle. The fourth halving in April 2024 will reduce the block reward to 3.125 BTC, slowing the growth rate of supply. Historical data shows that after the halvings in 2012 and 2016, Bitcoin saw significant increases in the following 12-18 months. After the halving in 2012, Bitcoin rose from US$650 to a high of US$20,000 in 2017; after the halving in 2016, it rose from US$9,000 to a peak of US$69,000 in 2021. This shows that the halving event has a significant long-term driving effect on prices. Judging from the current situation, the tightening effect on the supply side is gradually emerging, providing potential support for price increases.
