The current price of Bitcoin is around $90,000, and its total market value is about $2 trillion, which is similar to Meta. If Bitcoin wants to catch up with Microsoft's $3 trillion market value, it has to rise to $150,000. If compared with Apple's $4 trillion, it has to reach $200,000. If it competes with gold's $20 trillion, it will get $1 million. We are not in a hurry to compare with gold, but Bitcoin is highly correlated with copper prices. You can take a look at this data first! ! !
For Bitcoin to reach 1 million US dollars, a huge amount of money must flow in! ! The good news is that since 2010, the circulation of US dollars has increased by an average of 1 trillion per year, and it has doubled in the past 10 years! ! This money has driven real estate to the most expensive in history, the stock market is also ridiculously expensive, and gold has reached a new high. If some of these trillions of funds suddenly flow into Bitcoin, wouldn’t the price take off?
The total value of all assets in the world is about 900 trillion US dollars, and Bitcoin's market value of 2 trillion US dollars is still one of the smallest assets in all asset classes, and its growth space is still huge! ! Especially if you consider that the current stock market is already at the most expensive valuation level in history, according to the Shiller PE Ratio, an indicator of stock market valuation, the current valuation level of the stock market has only been so high once in the past 150 years~ At the same time, soaring real estate market prices and rising mortgage rates have made real estate increasingly unaffordable, and the continued increase in global government fiscal deficits has also gradually reduced the trust in the government bond market. In such a market environment, investors have almost no choice but to decide between gold or Bitcoin!
The outlook for Bitcoin is very optimistic, but it should be noted that these factors already existed in November 2021, yet in the following year, Bitcoin still fell by 80%!! Therefore, many investors are worried that we may be at a similar historical node and Bitcoin may experience a sharp drop again. For traders, it is crucial to accurately grasp the rise and fall cycle of Bitcoin.
The rise and fall of Bitcoin is indeed closely related to the economic cycle. If we superimpose copper prices on the Bitcoin chart, we will find that Bitcoin is highly correlated with copper prices. Many people may not realize that Bitcoin trading behavior is actually strongly affected by global economic activities, and copper prices are one of the indicators of the health of the global economy! ! This also explains why when economic growth accelerates and people have more disposable funds in their hands, they are more willing to invest in high-risk assets such as Bitcoin, thereby driving up Bitcoin prices/ Doctor Copper has long been regarded by financial markets as a barometer of economic activity. When copper prices rise, it usually means that the global economy is growing! ! At present, copper prices have risen by 15% since the beginning of 2025. If copper prices further break through the year's high, every similar situation in history has corresponded to the strong performance of Bitcoin prices~
The ISM manufacturing new orders index also suggests that the global economy may be entering a new round of recovery cycle. This indicator is a survey data that measures the volume of new orders in the manufacturing industry. When corporate orders increase significantly, it often means that economic activity is accelerating! ! Historical data shows that in 2012-2014, 2016-2018 and 2020-2021, the periods when the ISM index rose were accompanied by a strong rise in Bitcoin prices. If we superimpose the trend of Bitcoin with these economic indicators, we will find that the current situation is similar to January 2017. After two years of economic downturn, Trump took office and introduced a series of tax cuts and economic stimulus policies, which led to a rebound in economic activity and a surge in Bitcoin prices! And now we are seeing similar signs of a recovery in the economic cycle again, which may mean that Bitcoin is at the starting point of a new bull market! !
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin broke through a key resistance level at the end of 2024 and has been firmly above it in the past few months. If economic growth continues to strengthen, Bitcoin is expected to maintain this breakthrough and enter a higher market value level! ! But like any transaction, we must be clear about risk management. If Bitcoin cannot hold the current support level, then this breakthrough may prove to be a false breakthrough, which may trigger a deeper correction~ But in general, the current Bitcoin trading opportunities are very worthy of attention, with controllable risks and extremely high potential returns! !
Source: Bravos Research
