The prediction platform Polymarket has opened bets on a potential audit of the US gold reserve by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon Musk. On February 16, Senator Rand Paul called on the billionaire to conduct an inspection of the precious metal storage at Fort Knox—the first audit since 1974. Musk supported the idea.
“This gold is the property of the American people. I really hope it’s still there!” wrote the head of DOGE.
As a result, two markets emerged on Polymarket: one for betting on whether the audit will take place by May 2025, and another forecasting its results. Users were skeptical about the likelihood of an independent audit. At the time of writing, the probability of it being conducted by the end of April was estimated at 40%.
As for the possibility that Fort Knox does not hold the declared 4600 tons of bullion, traders assigned a probability of only 21%.
Amid growing doubts about the integrity of the US gold reserve, Senator Cynthia Lummis once again called for the creation of a strategic bitcoin reserve. She emphasized that its status could be verified by anyone using a simple computer.
Agne Linge, Head of Development at WeFi, suggested to The Block that blockchain technology could be used to ensure the transparency of the gold reserve’s status. She referenced Musk’s expressed support for using the technology for financial oversight. Analysts at Bitfinex questioned whether President Donald Trump would agree to a public audit of the reserves, despite circulating conspiracy theories about their actual size.
“However, if evidence were obtained, it would have a significant impact on the dollar and negatively affect the economy as a whole,” they acknowledged.
Linge added that a potential shortfall would drive up gold prices, though temporarily. The price of the precious metal has hit an all-time high, exceeding $2,900 per ounce.
Goldman Sachs raised its annual price target for gold to $3,100. Analysts cited strong demand from central banks, according to Reuters. Increasing political uncertainty, including concerns over Trump’s tariff policies, could push the price to $3,300, experts suggested. Recall that, according to US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, bitcoin is a competitor not to the dollar, but to gold.