From a structural perspective, Bitcoin has risen from $15,443 to $73,000 in the first phase. After a long consolidation, it is now in the second phase of the upward trend. If we calculate based on an increase of around 380% in the first phase, the target for the second phase is directly aiming for $220,000, with a minimum of $140,000. As long as the pullback does not exceed 33%, the overall upward trend will not be broken. A pullback exceeding 20% (that is, dropping below $87,000) is a very good opportunity for medium to long-term positioning, buying in batches, and controlling stop-loss within 10%. If the drop exceeds 33% (that is, dropping below $73,500), then the trend needs to be reassessed.
The current volatile structure is still unclear, and it may continue to wash out or build a new structure. Now is not the time for pattern confirmation. For short-term positions, take a bite and leave; do not be greedy. If a pullback of over 20% occurs, it will be a good opportunity for us to chase over 100% returns. The bull market is not over; we just need to patiently wait for better entry points.
In summary, in the medium to long term, Bitcoin will continue its bull market in 2025. It is currently in the second phase of the upward trend, with a theoretical increase of over 220,000 and a minimum increase of over 140,000. Note: During the second upward phase, any pullback in Bitcoin cannot exceed 33%; therefore, when the pullback exceeds 20%, it is the best time to gradually position for the medium to long term. The continuing volatile structure during Bitcoin's rise has randomness, and it is easy to get squeezed if you participate. If you do participate, try to maintain a small position and focus on quick entry and exit, placing emphasis on medium to long-term positioning when a pullback of over 20% occurs.
I personally believe that the current wide fluctuations in Bitcoin have not yet ended. Sudden drops and surges are not characteristics of the start of a new major market trend. Partners in the medium to long term should wait for an opportunity to position with a pullback of over 20%.
