Source: Talking about Li and other things
There is not much to talk about in the market these two days. People seem to be more concerned about changes in macro factors, such as the direction of the Federal Reserve's policy, the US stock earnings season, etc. Of course, there are also some related developments in the crypto field, such as:
- Coinbase is said to have received a subpoena from the U.S. CFTC seeking customer data related to Polymarket.
- Grayscale announced that it is considering a number of digital assets for future investment products, including KAS, APT, ARB, TIA, HBAR, etc. (don’t copy their homework).
- Messari plans to cut about 15% of its workforce.
- The U.S. Department of Justice is suing the operators of cryptocurrency mixing services Blender and Sinbad.
- Pendle will launch a $6.1 million airdrop to vePENDLE holders.
- The U.S. Senate Banking Committee will establish its first subcommittee dedicated to cryptocurrency.
- Circle donated $1 million in USDC to Trump’s inaugural committee, noting that the committee was open to accepting donations in the stablecoin.
- Standard Chartered Bank to provide cryptocurrency custody services in the European Union.
- The Russian Ministry of Finance will sell the Bitcoin assets seized from the Infraud hacker group (not much, just 1,032).
- Nvidia's Jensen Huang's speech caused all quantum computing stocks to plummet (quantum computing will not be realized in the next 20 years).
- Animecoin releases ANIME token economics, HYPE stakers can get airdrops.
- Ever since Binance announced the launch of ZEREBRO (an AI Meme on Solana) perps, the coin has only fallen and not risen for more than ten days in a row (what else can I say, even the leeks are crying when they see it, haha).
...I feel like there are endless news to read every day. How to quickly find useful information from the massive amount of news is a problem that needs to be continuously improved. But personally, I don’t recommend spending too much time on reading news every day. I personally prefer to read those long articles with more depth or documents of a data nature. Of course, if you don’t have so much time to read, you can also consider using ChatGPT or GroK2 to quickly extract the core content of the document.
After talking about some information that we have paid attention to in the past few days, let’s continue to briefly talk about the two topics of escaping the bull market and learning effects.
1. Questions about escaping the bull market
A few days ago (January 10), Mr. Heng in the group gave a sharing session on how to escape the top of a bull market and buy the bottom of a bear market. After the sharing session, he also sent a summary document of more than 7,000 words to the group and summarized more than 40 commonly used indicators for escaping the top/buying the bottom using Excel. It can be seen that Mr. Heng's research on this matter is still very in-depth and attentive, and it is worth learning for each of us. As shown in the figure below.
Here I will simply select a few of Mr. Heng’s opinions for you (some private numbers are hidden):
- It is impossible for most people in the market to make money. In fact, each round is about finding new investors. Most of the main funds will only build positions at the bottom and distribute them to the right people at the top.
- The biggest positive news and the craziest time are the craziest distribution times.
- Opportunities to make big money only exist in a bear market when liquidity is exhausted. Opportunities to lose big money only exist in a bull market when people are full of noise and greed.
- My cost is below 20,000, and I have started selling in batches at ** million as planned. This is the exit plan I made after completing the bear market purchase.
- There are less than ** days left to the first possible (theoretical) peak, which means that a large correction close to the halving level may occur at any time.
- The time when you least want to leave the bull market is when you should leave.
- When everyone has no confidence, you should believe in hope. When everyone is full of confidence, you should doubt the risks.
Recently, many people have been discussing the topic of escaping the top of the bull market, but I found that many people on social media still only look at the price. For example, some KOLs tell you that you should not sell, and you should wait until the price rises to more than $150,000 before selling. Some KOLs even swear to tell you that Bitcoin will definitely rise to $1 million this year, and then you will be obedient and go all in when Bitcoin reaches $100,000, and decide to wait for your fortune. But do you know that those KOLs really have coins themselves? Or can their average holding cost be the same as yours?
Any transaction should be based on one's own position management. We have sorted out and discussed the topic of position management many times before. Interested parties can directly search and review through Huali Huawai's e-book (Blockchain Methodology) (Volume 1 + Volume 2). As shown in the figure below.
On the basis of reasonable position management (suitable for your own risk preference), we combine some on-chain indicators, K-line indicators, macro factors, news, or some KOLs' personal opinions to make auxiliary judgments. This is a relatively rational investment operation idea. Of course, if you have formed your own "methodology" (we will discuss some issues of methodology below), you can also ignore some of the influencing factors.
Otherwise, if you just follow the crowd or make transactions based on your so-called personal feelings, then there is a high probability that you will just be giving away money to the market.
Here we can give another specific example, and just take an on-chain indicator of Long-term Holders, as shown in the figure below.
What can you discover from this single indicator above?
Here we give some simple references: Judging from the indicator data in the above figure, it seems that some long-term holders (including Smart Money) are exiting at this stage, allowing short-term holders coming in later to take over. The red area has just touched the dotted line position below. Judging from this indicator alone, this looks like a danger warning signal, which seems to mark a new top range of the relative cycle.
So, let me ask you, on the one hand, some KOLs tell you that BTC will rise to 1 million US dollars this year, and on the other hand, some indicators are prompting you to enter a relatively dangerous range. What should you do to maximize your own interests?
We cannot provide you with a specific answer to this question because everyone's position, risk preference, etc. are different. You need to find the answer that suits you.
Some people can find greater opportunities to make money in the most dangerous bull market top period, while others are trapped at the top of the bull market when they have the best chance to make money, or even lose money. There is no so-called standard unified answer that suits everyone in this market.
Different people view the problem of bull top differently.
Some KOLs believe that the current market is just the beginning and starting point of the bull market. I even saw some KOLs say that the bull market has not started yet. I don’t know what the basis of these KOLs’ judgment is. If their vision has been set 20 years later, then I can agree that now is just the starting point of the bull market or the bull market has not started yet. Otherwise, it is misleading the majority of retail investors and novices. If we only look at it from a small cyclical perspective, then in this cycle, Bitcoin has risen from the relative bottom range of 15,000 US dollars to the present. In fact, this round of bull market has been going on for quite a long time. How can we think that the bull market has not started yet!
Of course, if you can also extend your vision to 10 or 20 years later, then the old saying in the previous article by Huali Huawai still applies: For the future, it is never expensive to buy BTC now, and you can always maintain the currency-based thinking.
But if your horizon is limited to a few months, weeks, or even N trades in a single day, then you need to customize a strict trading strategy based on your position management, and think about how you can defeat these trading opponents in such a high-risk market with the in-depth (including insider) participation of various institutions/teams/professional traders, or what skills (such as you are proficient in K-line indicators, you have access to first-hand information sources...) and specialties (such as you have more patience than most people, you have enough time and energy to study and research...) that can ensure that you can outperform most of the leeks in the market.
In short, there is no standard answer to the question of when the bull market will peak. Whether it is the article shared by Huali Huawai before, the live broadcast shared by Heng Laoban a few days ago, or the views and execution strategies shared by other partners in the group, these can only be used as a reference for you. In fact, the person you need to ask the most about this question is not others, but yourself or your own position.
As for ourselves, we have actually shared it in Hua Li Huawai’s previous article. I successfully executed PlanA in December last year and successfully sold out 10% of the big pie position. Next, I just need to continue to press the original position. As long as the plan is strictly implemented, if it weren't for learning records and writing articles, I wouldn't even look at any K-lines.
2. Questions about learning outcomes
In the previous article, we mentioned that we spent most of last year (2024) sorting out "methods", so we named the e-book collection of the previous year as (Blockchain Methodology) (originally wanted to call it (Crypto Methodology), but I still think the word blockchain is cooler). As shown in the figure below.
But I have recently discovered a problem, that is, many people seem to be limited to the level of "reading" when reading e-books, and are unable to apply what they have learned to other situations, such as further completing the subsequent "recording", "classification" and "application".
In fact, based on my personal learning experience, no matter what method or strategy we use, when we browse other people’s content, we have only completed the most basic “knowing or understanding”. This is still a long way from becoming our own “methodology” and using it for our own benefit.
Let me give you another example. For example, in the e-book, we have introduced and shared many indicators related to Bitcoin and altcoins. For example, you may have seen 20 indicators for Bitcoin, but if you want to use these 20 indicators for your own benefit, you should complete the following new steps:
Record: Record the indicators you see and think will be helpful to you in a table by taking notes. Before recording, you need to plan the categories of the table according to your personal needs. If you are used to using Excel, you can divide it into categories such as indicator name, indicator address, current value, instructions for use, etc.
Classification: As the amount of records increases, you will find that different indicators can actually be further classified, such as on-chain indicators, sentiment indicators, K-line indicators... and so on.
Application: While the above records and classifications are constantly being improved, what you need to do next is to try to apply these indicators in combination with actual practice (practical operations), and then continuously optimize them in combination with your own position management. You can even try to further form your own "characteristic indicators" on this basis, and then "visualize" or "data" your characteristic indicators through mathematical induction or calculation.
The above are just textual theories. Next, I will make a draft of a practical demonstration form based on the above theories from my personal perspective, hoping to give you some ideas. As shown in the figure below.
In the above picture, based on my personal needs, I have added three additional columns: data delay, trigger or not, and selling range. Then based on the numerical results of these columns, I can simply make a mathematical formula, such as positioning in percentage, setting different weights for different indicators, and different weights occupy different percentages. Finally, for example, if the comprehensive result shows that it is in the 0-30% range, it means that you can buy at the bottom, the 30%-80% range means that you can make a fixed investment or do nothing, and the 80%-100% range means that you can sell in batches.
With this set of steps from "reading - recording - classification - application", I can slowly form my own "methodology" in this matter and use it for myself. What I need to do next is to repeat and improve the previous 4 steps to make my own "methodology" more effective, more in line with my own position management, and more able to adapt to changes in market cycles.
Of course, these are just some simple examples, and the table above is just a temporary draft for demonstration. What we provide here is actually a method or idea. If you agree with this learning idea, I suggest you to organize it yourself according to your personal needs (that is, don't leave a message to ask me for a ready-made table, or simply ask me to make any table for you). This will help you learn and implement better. Or, if you have a better learning method or suggestion, you are welcome to leave a message to share with everyone.
