Macroeconomic Interpretation: Many friends may wonder why the market was on an upward trend this Monday, showing signs of breaking new highs, only to plummet from a high of $102,762 on Tuesday, quickly dropping to around $92,500?
On December 26, the day after Christmas (Christmas Day in the U.S.), we analyzed the resistance level for BTC near $102,770 and the support level near $92,520 in the research report. This week, the highest and lowest points of the market have all aligned with the predicted resistance and support levels. For specifics, refer to the article from December 26.
This week, global financial markets and the cryptocurrency market experienced multiple major events and policy news shocks, reshaping market trends and prompting investors to reassess future trends. Below is a summary of this week's hot events and an in-depth analysis of their impact on the crypto market.
One, #特朗普 Tariff policy rumors trigger market volatility
This Monday, as The Washington Post reported that Trump's team is exploring a universal import tariff plan targeting key imported goods, the dollar index plummeted, while U.S. stock futures and the cryptocurrency market surged. This news reflects the market's high sensitivity to the potential protectionist policies that Trump may adopt. However, Trump's refutation on Tuesday reversed market sentiment, causing declines in both U.S. stocks and the cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC), showing the market's heightened vigilance towards policy uncertainty.
Two, #美联储降息 Expectations delayed
The market generally expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates earlier this year, but this week, the market significantly postponed the expectation of rate cuts to June or July for the first time. This change has led to a re-adjustment of inflation expectations and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, putting pressure on dollar-denominated assets such as U.S. stocks and BTC, causing prices to fall. This reflects the market's high attention to the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and its significant impact on asset prices.
Three, Trump's remarks trigger turmoil in global asset markets
Trump's series of remarks regarding inflation, interest rates, foreign policy, and military actions have further intensified volatility in global asset markets. Trump's idea of merging the U.S. and Canada using "economic power" and plans to overturn Biden's offshore drilling ban, among other measures, demonstrate his tough stance on foreign policy. These remarks have negatively impacted the three major U.S. stock indices and the cryptocurrency market, leading to a collective decline in the market.
Four, #美联储会议纪要 Revealing the path of rate cuts
The minutes released by the Federal Reserve show that although they decided to cut rates by 25 basis points, they expect the pace of rate cuts in 2025 to slow significantly. Market participants still hold uncertainty about the future path of the federal funds rate over the next year, increasing market volatility. The cryptocurrency market, as a high-risk asset, is particularly sensitive to changes in Federal Reserve monetary policy.
Five, The U.S. government plans to sell BTC from the Silk Road case
The U.S. government's plan to sell BTC seized in the Silk Road case led to a brief drop in BTC. This event highlights the impact of government policies on the cryptocurrency market. Although Trump previously stated he would not sell any BTC after taking office, it remains to be seen whether the government can successfully sell these bitcoins.
Six, Data on #非农数据 and Unemployment Rate is about to be released
This Friday evening, non-farm payroll data and unemployment rate data will be released, which are crucial for assessing the health of the U.S. economy and will directly affect the Federal Reserve's future rate policies. Cryptocurrency market investors need to closely monitor this data, as it may trigger significant fluctuations in market sentiment.
Comprehensive Analysis: This week's hot events indicate that policy news, economic data, and government actions have significant impacts on the crypto market. Rumors about Trump's tariff policies, the postponement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, Trump's tough rhetoric, and the government's plan to sell BTC have all exacerbated market volatility. At the same time, the release of non-farm payroll data and unemployment rate data will also provide new guidance for the market.
For cryptocurrency market investors, facing such a volatile market environment, it's essential to remain calm and rational, closely monitor policy dynamics and changes in economic data, and adjust investment strategies in a timely manner. In the future, as more policies and economic data are released, the cryptocurrency market may face new opportunities and challenges.
BTC Data Analysis:
In this market, you will find that during a market uptrend, all you see are positive news, while during a downtrend, everyone often sees negative news.
Many news items are sometimes just to guide us to see and lead market bullish and bearish sentiment, and media reports often carry some bias towards either side, which may have certain vested interests, such as holding short positions wanting to accumulate at lower levels will sing bearishly, while holding long positions or wanting to expand spot profits will sing bullishly. Of course, it is not necessarily the media itself that holds positions; it could be that the capital controlling the media has corresponding holdings.
For example, in this round of negative news, #U.S. stocks fell, overnight #Bitcoin ETF saw a large outflow of funds, Coinank data shows an outflow of $569 million yesterday, and the U.S. government plans to sell BTC:
U.S. officials confirmed to media DB News today that the Department of Justice has been authorized to liquidate 69,370 BTC (worth about $6.5 billion) seized in the Silk Road case. As a result of this news, BTC experienced a brief decline.
It is reported that the Department of Justice requested permission to sell these assets due to fluctuations in Bitcoin prices. When asked about the next steps, a DOJ spokesperson stated, "The government will proceed according to the judgment of this case."
The progress of this event is "approved for sale," but the Department of Justice is currently unable to determine when these bitcoins will be sold. There are only 11 days left until Trump officially takes office on January 20, and Trump had previously stated that he would not sell any bitcoins after taking office. Given the efficiency of the U.S. government, it remains to be seen whether the DOJ can successfully sell.
