美联储降息

At the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on May 8, closely watched by the financial markets, the real concern is not that the Fed will not cut interest rates, but that Fed Chair Powell will no longer signal any expectations of easing. Historically, the Fed's interest rate cuts need to meet two key conditions. First, the rise in prices must be effectively controlled, and inflationary pressures must significantly ease. Only when inflation data returns to a reasonable range can the Fed have room to cut rates to avoid triggering a sharp rise in prices again. Second, the economy faces substantial recession risks; if no interest rate cuts are taken, it could lead to a systemic crisis. Cutting rates can stimulate economic recovery and prevent the economy from falling into a deep recession.

Based on current data, a rate cut in May is almost impossible. From the inflation data, although some inflation indicators have recently eased, they are still above the long-term target set by the Fed. At the same time, although there are signs of a slowdown in the U.S. economy, there has not yet been a substantial recession risk that would prompt the Fed to decisively cut rates. Additionally, the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies continues to disrupt the market. Adjustments to tariffs will affect corporate costs and consumer spending, subsequently impacting economic growth and inflation levels. This makes the Fed more cautious in its monetary policy decisions, and the window for rate cuts is unlikely to open in the short term.

It is noteworthy that Trump frequently pressures on social media, emphasizing that 'inflation has subsided, and the Fed should cut rates immediately.' The underlying motivation is that rate cuts can stimulate economic growth, lower corporate financing costs, promote corporate investment and expansion, and thus drive economic development; at the same time, rate cuts often push up the stock market, and investors are more willing to invest in the stock market due to lower funding costs, which undoubtedly enhances his political achievements and gains more support on the economic front.
#美联储FOMC会议 #Strategy增持比特币 #美联储降息 #币圈 #区块链

$ETH In my 8 years of experience in the cryptocurrency space, based on my historical understanding of Bitcoin #BTC and Ethereum #ETH , let me discuss why I am heavily investing in Ethereum today. Previously, I mentioned to my followers that Ethereum #ETH would experience a pullback before the upgrade. This morning's pullback was as I expected; I anticipated a drop to around 1740 to go long. However, I initiated a long position at 1785, and seeing that there was no potential for a further drop, I added to my position at 1810. Currently, my cost basis for Ethereum long is at 1805. Why am I bullish? I experienced the Ethereum Shanghai upgrade in 2023, and there is also the interest rate decision on the 8th. From a macroeconomic perspective, although many people believe that interest rates will remain unchanged, based on a series of actions by the understanding king recently, and I previously wrote an article regarding some insights after Trump took office, I believe there is a high possibility of a rate cut in the interest rate decision on the 8th. Even if it remains unchanged, considering the pressure exerted by Trump recently, Powell will also relent somewhat, and the market will react in advance. Therefore, I believe there will be a significant increase tonight and tomorrow. Ethereum will not drop again! If you do not seize this opportunity, you will really miss out! #BTC #美联储降息

Pay attention to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on May 7, with the target expected interest rate remaining unchanged; the market has already priced it in.

Key information time nodes for the Federal Reserve in the future:

May 07 Federal Reserve interest rate decision
May 21 Federal Reserve meeting minutes
June 18 Federal Reserve interest rate decision (dot plot update)
July 02 Federal Reserve meeting minutes
July 30 Federal Reserve interest rate decision
August 13 Federal Reserve meeting minutes
September 17 Federal Reserve interest rate decision (dot plot update)

$BTC
#比特币战略储备 #美联储利率决策即将公布 #美联储降息

Early Morning! Federal Reserve, Major Announcement!

The latest meeting minutes released by the Federal Reserve send a strong signal. The minutes show that Federal Reserve officials decided to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts in the coming months due to inflation being higher than expected and the uncertain inflation impact of policies since Trump's administration. They believe that interest rates are close to or at a suitable moment to slow down rate cuts, as cutting rates too quickly may cause inflation pressures to rise again.

However, a key figure at the Federal Reserve, Waller, has a different view. On January 8, he stated that inflation will continue to decrease towards the 2% target, and he supports further rate cuts this year. He feels that the foundation of the U.S. economy is quite stable, the job market is good, and tariffs have little impact on inflation and monetary policy.

From the meeting minutes, officials feel that interest rates are about to reach a point where they should slow down rate cuts because cutting rates too quickly may cause inflation to rise again. They also mentioned that while inflation may get close to 2%, the process might take longer than previously thought, and deflation might even have stopped.

Moreover, many officials believe that the risks of rising inflation have increased, with reasons including recent high inflation data, potential changes in trade immigration policies, geopolitical issues, a loose financial environment, strong household spending, and rising housing prices.

Regarding employment, they expect the job market to remain quite stable, but they still need to monitor labor market indicators. Last month, when the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, there were officials who opposed it, indicating significant internal disagreements on the rate cut issue within the Federal Reserve.

In summary, the future policy of the Federal Reserve will still depend on how the data changes, with no fixed timetable.

#美联储降息

【Regarding the Federal Reserve's Decision on Interest Rate Cuts in 2025】

The current market has fully anticipated that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times in 2025, a expectation that reflects the market's high concern for the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy direction. However, recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes and official statements indicate that the path for interest rate cuts in 2025 may not be as clear and aggressive as the market expects. According to the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes from December 2024, officials expect only two interest rate cuts in 2025, each by 25 basis points. This adjustment in expectation is based on the Federal Reserve's cautious consideration of inflation pressures and economic data.

First, although the U.S. economy has shown some resilience in 2024, the pace of inflation decline is still slower than expected, which makes the Federal Reserve more cautious in its interest rate decisions. Additionally, the policies of newly elected President Trump may further drive inflation, which requires the Federal Reserve to weigh its decisions more carefully.

Second, the adjustment in market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts has triggered volatility in global financial markets. U.S. stocks have experienced significant fluctuations under the expectation of rate cuts, while U.S. Treasury yields have shown a complex trend due to the dual effects of rate cut expectations and inflation concerns. Furthermore, the exchange rate of the dollar and gold prices have also fluctuated due to changes in market expectations regarding the pace of rate cuts.

In this context, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut plan for 2025 appears more strategic and flexible. Its decisions will increasingly depend on the performance of economic data, especially changes in inflation and the job market. This means that although the market anticipates three rate cuts, the actual number and pace of cuts still carry uncertainty, and investors need to closely monitor the Federal Reserve's policy signals and the dynamic changes in economic data.

Overall, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut plan for 2025 is not only a response to economic conditions but also a reflection of the need for policy flexibility in the context of increasing global economic uncertainty.
#美联储降息 #美联储降息！泼天的富贵，走势兑现，消息面相对滞后，结构面永远领先消息面~

There is a key sentence in the speech of Fed Powell: interest rate hikes and cuts should be decided based on subsequent changes in economic data. The GDP of the United States in the first quarter was 1.6%, and the GDP in the second quarter was 2.8%. The second quarter data will be revised on Thursday this week, and it is very likely to be revised to more than 3.

The employment data is a cycle from March this year to March next year. The revision of 818,000 reductions before Powell's speech is obviously a planned and premeditated attempt to fuel the market's desire to cut interest rates. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits is 170,000, a new low in one or two months. The US economy is not in recession. The July Sam's rule (when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points or more relative to the lowest point in the previous 12 months, the economy is likely to have entered a recession) ignited recession concerns. According to historical experience, the Sam's rule has been verified in all nine US recessions since 1960. However, Powell's speech expressed his cautious attitude towards the use of the Sam's rule in advance. The proposer of the Sam's rule himself also said that the US economy "has not yet fallen into recession." The Sam's rule may not apply to the current US economy.

The above data show that the US economy is developing well and there is no recession. It is impossible to cut interest rates in September.
The US dollar index will fall to 95-99 by the end of the year

Everyone says that interest rates will be cut, but when responding, we must do the opposite. If the good news is not realized, it will be bad news.

#美联储降息 #鲍威尔讲话

Arthur Hayes: The U.S. Treasury will release a quarterly refinancing announcement next week, which is expected to re-accelerate the crypto bull market

On April 26, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes wrote on the X platform: "As expected, tax revenue increased by about $200 billion to the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA). Forget the Fed meeting in May. The refinancing announcement for the second quarter of 2024 will be announced next week. What strategy will Yellen adopt?
Here are a few options:
1. Stop issuing Treasury bonds by draining TGA to zero, which will inject $1 trillion of liquidity into the market.
2. Shift more borrowing to short-term Treasury bills, which will withdraw funds from reverse repurchase (RRP), equivalent to injecting $400 billion of liquidity into the market.
3. Combine options 1 and 2, do not issue long-term bonds, only issue short-term Treasury bills, and drain TGA and RRP at the same time, which will inject $1.4 trillion of liquidity into the market.
The impact of the Fed is negligible, and Yellen is a powerful character.
If any of the above three options occurs, the stock market is expected to rise, and most importantly, the cryptocurrency bull market will re-accelerate."
#美联储降息 $BTC

December 18th Cryptocurrency Market Important News Overview:

1. #BTC☀ Continues to Break New Highs: Bitcoin has risen for three consecutive days, reaching a peak of $108,353, very close to the $110,000 mark. Bitcoin is leading the market, while altcoins are performing weakly. Ethereum has dropped to around $3,870, Dogecoin has fallen to $3.88, and XRP has corrected to $2.56. However, HSk remains strong, reaching a new high of $2.2.

2. Bloomberg Analysts Predict: A wave of cryptocurrency ETFs is expected to be launched next year, with XRP and SOL likely following LTC and HBAR ETFs, becoming #重点关注 objects.

3. #MicroStrategy Market Cap Surge: If Bitcoin rises to $138,000, MicroStrategy's market cap will surpass that of Starbucks and Nike. MicroStrategy currently holds 439,000 Bitcoins, making it the world's largest corporate holder of Bitcoin.

4. #BVNK Completes Financing: Stablecoin infrastructure platform BVNK successfully completed a $50 million Series B financing round, led by Haun Ventures.

5. #美联储降息 High Probability: The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December is as high as 95.4%.

#合约挑战 5000u to 50000u The third day ended, and the current account has 6308.59u.

I was first taught a lesson by $ETH in the past two days, and then I got some back on various copycats! I have posted all the order-making processes on the square to tell everyone, if you can't keep up, think about why!

To be honest, this weekend's market is really boring, everyone should take a rest and have some fun, and if there is a chance, I will give you some benefits!

#美联储降息

Brothers, guess a wave #美联储利率决议即将公布 #美联储降息 #Federal Reserve

On the first day of the congressional hearing on monetary policy, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated that the labor market is solid, inflation remains above the 2% target, and there is no rush to cut interest rates. The likelihood of a rate cut in June by the Federal Reserve has further diminished, and the cryptocurrency market continues to remain sluggish under its influence.

The supply of stablecoins has been increasing, but BTC has not shown a corresponding rise, still hovering below $100,000.

Historically, most Februarys have ended with gains, especially during bull markets. Now that February is nearly half over, BTC remains in a downtrend. In this cycle, every time BTC experiences a slight pullback, the altcoin market encounters a catastrophic decline. If BTC cannot rebound and surpass $100,000 by the end of the month, the situation in the altcoin market may further deteriorate.

Now everyone is mocking ETH, but I still have confidence in ETH's future trends. The arrival of altcoin season requires ETH; without BTC's rise, there will be no bull market, and similarly, without ETH's rise, there will be no altcoin season. Without the wealth creation myths of altcoin season, it will be impossible to attract a large number of new users. Relying solely on imitating ETH's existing ecosystem without any innovation, SOL's rise is merely a battle among existing users, at most, as seen now, where only a few coins can keep up with BTC, while the majority of other coins languish. I believe in the vitality of the crypto space, I believe 2025 will be a year of explosive bull markets, and I believe there will still be an altcoin season in this cycle, so I also believe that ETH's spring will eventually come. 🥳

11652021562
38769032259
#比特币后市
#ETH走势分析
#山寨季到来

As the saying goes, only when the benefits are slowly released can the bull market last for a long time.

100X community news:
CME data shows the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in March has dropped to 8%

On February 14, according to CME Fed Watch: The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in March is 92%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 8%. The probability of keeping rates unchanged through May is 32.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 62.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 5.1%.

#美联储降息 $BTC

Two interest rate decisions to watch in the next 12 hours:

◓ The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision between 1-2 AM Beijing time on the 19th

◓ The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision between 12-1 PM Beijing time on the 19th

#美联储降息 ，#日本央行降息

Is the Fed practicing its iron-headed skills?

As long as the Fed continues to maintain high interest rates, does not cut interest rates, and siphons global liquidity, it will definitely put pressure on the exchange rates of other countries. Compared with the daily life, we have already defended it very well.

Bitcoin next door continued to fall sharply today. This place that is most directly affected by liquidity can be clearly seen. Even with the halving every four years and the clear cards of ETF passing, the power of interest rate hikes can also force you to press a small bear market.

Last week, the debate between the King of Understanding and the King of Sleep was obviously at a disadvantage. I have said before that if the sponsor supports the Democratic Party, then the US stock market will definitely not collapse, and interest rate cuts will come immediately. If the sponsor supports the King of Understanding, then interest rate cuts will definitely not come immediately, and there will even be one or two interest rate hikes (surprise or not?)

At present, it seems that there is a trend and sign of the King of Understanding's return.

Speaking of which, if this continues, the East and the West will compete for both superiority and life and death. The financial market will be completely involved, and a bunch of economic theories will have no say.

First, the consumption suppression brought about by high interest rates will further hit our exports and foreign trade. Many fragile economies face systemic risks. The balance sheets of national companies and individuals will take longer to repair. The fight between the East and the West will further weaken the consensus of globalization. We are likely to be on the eve of a great depression.

Secondly, our AAA cannot go well. There are so many things to protect with limited bullets, such as houses, DFZF, debts, exchange rates, and it is not their turn.

Thirdly, the Americans themselves are likely to do stress tests. Even if they cannot pay back hundreds of banks and interest, they will drag down the biggest opponent. Anyway, they have already gone all in. If they win, the problem will be solved. If they cannot win, they will suffer a bloodbath.

Finally, all markets such as Bitcoin will be drained, and various high-quality assets will usher in a violent killing. At that time, it will be another round of extremely cruel and profitable wealth transfer.

The good show is still to come. Are you ready?

If you don't know what to do with the current market and keep losing money, come to May #美联储降息 #BTC走势分析 #美国首次申领失业救济人数超出预期 $WLD $PEPE

📈 Financial market is changing: Fed rate cut is imminent, global market volatility intensifies📉

Recent financial market dynamics have attracted widespread attention, especially about the Fed's possible rate cut decision. The market expects that the Fed may take early rate cut measures to appease market sentiment before the FOMC meeting on September 18.

Therefore, August may be a volatile month, and investors need to be prepared for various market trends to cope with the last opportunity to enter the market in this cycle!

In addition, the plunge in global financial markets and cryptocurrency markets has triggered a variety of speculations:

1. First, some people believe that the conflict between Israel and Hamas, coupled with the assassination of Hamas leaders in Iran, triggered panic selling in financial markets. But some people disagree with this view because conflicts in the Middle East have always had a long history, and this incident is not enough to trigger World War III.

2. Secondly, the unexpected interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan may also be one of the reasons for the market turmoil. Although Japan has long implemented a zero interest rate policy to combat deflation, the Bank of Japan recently decided to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, which has caused a certain impact on global financial markets. However, there are also views that although this move has a certain impact on the market, it is not enough to trigger a global economic panic or collapse.

3. In addition, given the poor performance of US labor data last Friday, the rise in unemployment is also considered to be one of the factors leading to financial market turmoil.

However, mainstream media and large institutions will use this series of events to hype, combined with a sharp correction in the financial market, so that the global financial market is shrouded in panic. This view is verified by the recent performance of the US and Japanese stock markets.

Viewpoint:

Given the large increase in US stocks in the past one or two years, this round of 10% to 20% correction may be a healthy market adjustment in the long run.

At the same time, Bitcoin hit a record high of $74,000 before the fourth halving, and the current correction is just a normal correction phenomenon of the bull market outlook.

However, for those investors who have accumulated enough chips, the next time the market explodes, it will be the time to reap the benefits!

#美联储降息 #全球市场动态 #加密货币趋势

🌟Discussion on the relationship between the U.S. dollar index and Bitcoin trends🌟

Let’s focus on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), an indicator that essentially reflects the strength of the U.S. dollar relative to five other major currencies. Next, we want to analyze the trend relationship between DXY and Bitcoin price.

Historically, we have observed a significant phenomenon: when DXY rises, Bitcoin often performs poorly, usually either sideways or in a downward trend.

Taking 2020 as an example, before the last bull market started, DXY quickly fell back to around 90 after reaching a high of 102. However, during this time period, Bitcoin ushered in a strong rise. This can be verified from several arrow marks in the screenshot provided below.

This pattern shows that during periods of rising DXY, the Bitcoin price side tends to fall and vice versa. Therefore, some people believe that DXY can be regarded as a reverse indicator of Bitcoin.

🔍 But recently, things are a little different. Bitcoin has soared from US$24,000 to US$74,000, while DXY has made little movement and is still fluctuating sideways between 100 and 107. Looking back at the end of 2022, DXY is also 105, and Bitcoin is only about $16,000. What now? DXY is also 105, and Bitcoin has reached $60,000! Therefore, this change is definitely a positive sign for Bitcoin’s long-term trend.

💸 As the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in the second half of this year, if the DXY trend falls as predicted, Bitcoin may usher in a strong rise. Although the impact of DXY on Bitcoin is a long-term trend, judging from the current situation, the trend of Bitcoin is still quite stable.

At the same time, facing the fact that Bitcoin is currently at around 60,000, there is still a support level of 60,000, coupled with the strong support in the 58,000-60,000 range, and the support of the last Bitcoin low of more than 56,000, investment Investors should not panic at the current position.

Finally, when it comes to investing, everyone must always maintain a calm mind and make investment analysis and judgments based on data and past historical trends. This will definitely allow you to develop a good investment strategy in the investment market. and habits.

#美元指数 #比特币走势 #市场分析 #投资策略 #美联储降息

It was mentioned a long time ago that you can intervene in the long orders of the June reversal, but the original expectation was that it would go south first to remove liquidity and then go north, but the outcome was to go north.
This pull-up was also ignited by two positive factors. One is the positive CPI data that strengthened the Fed's interest rate cut in September, and the other is the sudden Trump shooting incident, which is also closely related to the US election in November. But no matter what the news is, it is always news, and it will always be in line with the market movement. The improvement of market sentiment has appeased more and more people's hearts, and the market can be effectively and steadily promoted.
For the short term, I started with the Heyue order from 55,000 to 57,000. I will consider selling or profiting near the high point of the previous structure (63,800). There must be a point of reaction at this position, because the market sentiment has not reached a very hot point, and no more people are willing to pay the cost to take over the chips realized by the big sellers, so they can only be thrown to lower people to take on the subsequent risks. To put it simply, the first obvious correction of this rally can be roughly around 63,800. Since the market's confidence and enthusiasm have not yet fully recovered, more positive factors need to be implemented to completely inspire the market.
From a long-term perspective, it seems that everyone is sure of a rate cut in September and Trump's inauguration in November, but for some big buyers, even if these are potential positive factors, they are ultimately debatable. No one will pay for the risk, and they will have to wait for further positive factors to be implemented before they can make a decision. But no matter what, this potential positive factor cannot be ignored in driving the market to improve. As long as confidence is growing, long-term highs are not a big problem. #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #美国6月CPI大幅降温 #特朗普遇袭 #美联储降息

[Bitcoin is facing a direction decision, whether it can break through 69,000, or whether it will be inserted again, tonight! ★Non-farm night, the data has been released, employment is higher than expected, the unemployment rate is higher than expected, the market predicts an interest rate cut in May-June, waiting for the Fed's speech]

In the past two days, in addition to the trend of Bitcoin in the blockchain market spreading throughout the financial world, the trend of gold has also extremely affected people's hearts. After rising for many consecutive days, gold has exceeded US$2,165 per ounce and reached a record high, effectively holding above US$2,000.

U.S. stocks hit new highs again, while U.S. bonds continued to soar. The employment and economic situation caused by high interest rates continues to deteriorate, especially the employment situation, and the US unemployment benefit data increased again. At the same time, the trade account data, which is an important economic indicator, also fell short of expectations, and employment and the economy faced a double decline.

Moreover, the Fed's attitude is constantly changing, and its attitude towards interest rate cuts is becoming increasingly clear. Although there are still internal differences, there are still concerns among officials about cutting interest rates prematurely. However, Powell's statements in the past few days have clearly shown the overall attitude of the Federal Reserve, once again releasing dovish remarks. Based on concerns about the economy, the first interest rate cut will soon be ushered in.

★Look at the data released tonight

U.S. non-farm payroll employment increased by 275,000 in February, compared with an expected increase of 200,000, compared with the previous increase of 353,000.

The U.S. unemployment rate was 3.9% in February, compared with the estimate of 3.7% and the previous value of 3.7%.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield rose sharply after the release of non-farm payrolls data, and was last at 4.108%.

Employment is higher than expected, but not as good as the previous value, and the unemployment rate is higher than expected, which is a mix of good news and bad news. However, the market generally predicts an interest rate cut in May or June, the U.S. dollar index falls, non-U.S. currencies rise, gold continues to rise, and Bitcoin is expected to have a breakthrough.

#热门话题 #美联储降息 #非农数据 $BTC #BTC