Most have returned to shore or are still slightly negative
Very few are making a profit, those who started investing, DCA from July/August.
The market fluctuates unpredictably in the short term, but I will target a few factors to follow the market, helping everyone have a plan to hold on and control themselves when everything becomes excessive:
1/ Price #BTC at least this season we will witness 6 digits
2/ Price #ETH , ETF has been approved. At least it will break the peak. Below ETH there is a whole chain of assets that need liquidity, so first ETH must rise.
3/ Price $LINK a techcoin indicator that works quite well with ETH. LINK will soar when the market is extremely good
4/ Total 3 index: the peak of 2021 is 1100B, three times that of 2018, currently only 900B. At least it should hold up to 1500 - 2000B. More optimistically, we can look towards the 3000B mark
5/ Altcoin season index, when it happens is when one should exit. Currently at 63, meaning 63% of the top 50 coins are running faster than BTC. When it reaches 80-90 then the market is about to crash. The upward cycle has prepared itself. It can run for at most 1-2 more months
6/ Regarding time/cycle:
- The year following the U.S. presidential election is a good year
- The year following Halving is a good year
- Q1 is usually the quarter of altcoins
- ETH usually rises sharply at the beginning of the year after a year when Bitcoin rises sharply
7/ The new trend of the market: I think there will be another ponzi trend to attract funds. Previous seasons had ICO, Staking, GameFi, Move-to-earn. This season has memes, but I still hope for another trend.
8/ Market psychology: when the peak of greed occurs, excessive, pulling relatives and friends to play. Everything is no longer controllable
Another important thing is when making a profit, do you know when enough is enough or sell this to buy that. Until it goes down again, just jump into DCA.