Many people guessed correctly about today's opening, but may not have accurately predicted the process during the session, which was not spectacular.
After the initial jump in A-shares, the gains narrowed, which does not match the rise in U.S.-listed Chinese stocks overnight, as the market begins to fully digest the announced stimulus effects.
1. Some investors may take profits during the opening rise. If today's closing gains narrow to less than 1%, then subsequent increases will be very difficult. Today's trend, while not a matter of life and death, will determine the outcome.
2. After the initial frenzy, investors calm down to ponder whether the words on paper will meet market expectations. Investors are also evolving, with previous references, they are paying more attention to actions. Currently, most institutions expect the People's Bank of China to cut the reserve requirement ratio before the end of the year, and to cut interest rates and reserve requirements next year to release easing policies, which may support the market in the short term. However, for the medium to long-term trend, we still need to wait for the details of the fiscal policy.
3. It is almost certain that there will be some "detailed" good news (details of economic goals and stimulus plans) later this week, depending on whether the market is satisfied. The final interpretation of the U.S. stock market belongs to Wall Street, while the trend of the Chinese stock market depends on how retail investors understand it.
4. After rising on Monday, the U.S. dollar index struggles to climb further, confirming that the global market is in a wait-and-see mode—waiting for the U.S. November inflation data on Wednesday evening. If the core CPI rises to 4%, this data will become a "game-changing data point." Currently, the market estimates an 85% probability of an interest rate cut next week.
Watch and wait.
