Expectations of interest rate cuts continue to increase, and the market is correcting: Is it a squat to accumulate energy or a short-term trap?
1. Institutional position dynamics
Recently, there have been significant changes in institutional holdings. The holdings of Big Pie surged three times compared to last week, showing that institutions are strongly optimistic about it. At the same time, the aunt's position has continued to rise in the past two weeks, and even exceeded the position of the pie at one time. This series of data shows that institutions generally hold bullish sentiments, and the market is expected to usher in a new round of rising prices. However, it should be noted that the upper pressure level for market growth is near 105,000. Once this position is exceeded, further attention can be paid to the potential upside of 110,000-150,000.
2. Analysis of interest rate cut expectations
Judging from market reaction, interest rate cut expectations are continuing to increase. With the release of small and large non-agricultural data, the market's expected probability of an interest rate cut in December has increased from 65% to 86%. This shows the market's strong expectations for a rate cut. However, it is worth noting that the CPI data to be released on Wednesday may become the last obstacle before cutting interest rates. Once this data is released, the path to interest rate cuts will be clearer. Therefore, the decision to cut interest rates at 3 a.m. on December 19 attracted much attention from the market.
Whether the market correction is a squat to accumulate strength or a short-term trap requires a comprehensive judgment based on more market information and data. Investors should remain cautious and pay close attention to market dynamics and news changes to make wise investment decisions.
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