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疯不疯狂嗯
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分析一下策略
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$ETH 回调做多 ### **仓位与风控策略** | **支撑区** | 仓位占比 | 止损位 | 止盈阶梯 | |-------------|---------|--------|---------------| | 3,850-3,860 | 5% | 3,830 | 3,890→3,930 | | 3,820-3,830 | 3% | 3,810 | 3,870→3,900 | | 3,750-3,760 | 2% | 3,740 | 3,820→3,850 | > 📌 **总仓位≤10%**，避免单点重仓
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新手看不懂，试试AI 根据最### 核心数据变化分析 ### 未来3-6小时走势推演 #### ▶ 看跌场景（概率60%）： - **回调路径**：$3,751 → $3,746（EMA20）→ $3,741（EMA30）→ $3,725（EMA60） - **触发条件**： - MACD负值持续扩大 - 价格30分钟内无法重回$3,753上方 - **关键支撑**： - **$3,741**（EMA30+日内存量低点） - 若跌破则加速至 **$3,698**（截图底部支撑线） #### ▶ 震荡场景（概率30%）： - **区间**：$3,741 - $3,766（早前高点） - **触发条件**： - EMA(20)支撑有效 - MACD柱状线收窄（空头减弱） #### ▶ 突破场景（概率10%）： - **反转信号**：放量突破 **$3,781.26**（24h新高） - **必要条件**： - 成交量突增至5万以上（需3倍当前量能） - MACD快速金叉 ### 操作策略 #### 1. **短线空头机会**（主推）： - **入场**：现价$3,751轻仓空，或反弹至$3,760加仓 - **止盈**：$3,741（第一目标）→ $3,725（第二目标） - **止损**：$3,766上方（防范假突破） #### 2. **多头防御策略**： - **观察区**：$3,741-3,746（EMA20-30区间） - **抄底信号**： - 出现长下影线 + 成交量放大至3万以上 - MACD负值缩窄 - **止损**：$3,725下方 #### 3. **突破追单条件**： - 若意外拉升突破$3,781，追多至$3,800 - 需满足：VOL > MA(5)=53,422 + MACD转正 --- ### 关键风险提示 1. **时间敏感窗口**： - 欧洲交易时段结束（18:00-20:00）可能放大波动 - 若美股开盘后加密货币联动下跌，恐加速回调 2. **指标背离预警**： - 价格未破前高但MACD已死叉 → **顶背离雏形** - 若$3,725失守，将触发多头止损盘 > **结论**：ETH未来几小时偏向**震荡下行**，重点关注$3,741-3,746支撑带。建议以**逢高做空**为主，严格设置止损。若22:00前无法收复$3,753，则回调趋势确认。
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$ETH 都看跌的时候，往往它就一直涨🧐
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