Sam's Rule founder said: Stronger non-farm data will likely trigger a recession! This is an ignored news!
Around 3 p.m., I was still doing aerobics, but I saw this news. At the same time,#BTCalso fell slightly after the news.
The news comes from Goldman Sachs' interview with Claudia Sam, the founder of the Sam Rule. From the interview, I can see that Sam's original intention was to release a good signal of stability.
Although the Sam rule has appeared recently, there are still more optimistic expectations, but the market has focused on her final speech.
The main reason why the Sam Rule has attracted attention online recently is that the U.S. unemployment rate in July reached 4.3% in August, triggering the Sam Rule's expectations of economic recession, leading to a decline in risk markets.
At the same time, Sam's Rules began to be mentioned extensively on the Internet.
Here is a brief explanation of Sam's rules:
The Sam rule is triggered if the current three-month average unemployment rate is 0.5 percentage points or more above the lowest three-month average unemployment rate over the past 12 months, indicating that the economy may have entered the early stages of a recession.
Moreover, after the Sam rule is triggered, the economic recession often has already occurred for four months, which has been largely proven in historical data, so the triggering of the Sam rule caused market panic.
However, what I actually want to say is that the Sam's rule is actually based on the method of carving a mark on a boat to find a sword. The Sam's rule was proposed in 2019. This rule was used to verify a large amount of data from several previous economic recession cycles in the United States. It was perfectly verified, with only one early failure. Therefore, the rule is considered to be a very "perfect" indicator of economic recession expectations.
When I finished reading this article on the stair machine, I basically understood that Sam wanted to stabilize the current US economy through the interview with Goldman Sachs.
First of all, she also admitted that the Sam rule actually failed twice in 1959 and 1969. Of course, there was an economic recession six months after its failure. However, Sam believed that the current US economic data, especially the 3% GDP in the second quarter, did not need to worry about the possibility of a recession for the time being.
But at the end of the interview, Sam said that overly strong non-farm data might reignite her expectations of a recession.
The reason is that if the non-farm data in August is too strong, the Federal Reserve may ignore the severity of the decline in employment data in July, and may even cause Federal Reserve members to believe that the possibility of a rate cut is reduced.
After the content of this interview was released, the pre-market sentiment of the U.S. stock market obviously declined, and the price of BTC fell in the short term.
Although the actual situation may not be as pessimistic as Sam thought, the CME swap rate shows that there is no probability of not cutting interest rates at present, but we still need to be vigilant.
Because the interest rate decision is imminent this month, if the Federal Reserve really announces that it will continue to maintain interest rates this month, the market will inevitably be in an uproar. I think this possibility is unlikely.
#萨姆规则 #BTC☀