萨姆规则

🚨 "Sam's Rule" is a hot search! The US unemployment rate has soared to 4.3%, and the shadow of economic recession has shrouded the market!

📉 As the "Sam's Rule" is triggered, it indicates that the pace of economic recession is getting closer. The latest non-agricultural data made everyone sweat. The speed of US corporate recruitment has stepped on the brakes, and the unemployment rate has climbed to a three-year high. "From social media to financial markets, this keyword is very popular, and even AI and Nvidia's plunge have to give way.

📊 As soon as the data was released, the market reacted immediately. The Fed's expectations for a rate cut in September jumped from 25 basis points to 50 basis points. Traders placed bets one after another, and the "recession trading" mode was fully opened. Behind these data is the weakness of US consumer spending, which not only drags down GDP, but also brings uncertainty to the global economy.

🌐 "Sam's Rule" has always been a reliable leading indicator of economic recession over the years. Rising unemployment may mean a weak labor market and reduced consumer spending, which in turn affects overall economic growth.

💡 For the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin, economic uncertainty is often seen as a double-edged sword. On the one hand, concerns about a recession may push investors to seek safe-haven assets, and Bitcoin may be favored due to its decentralized nature. On the other hand, if there is a large-scale panic sell-off in the market, all risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, may be hit.

📈 In such an environment, the volatility of the cryptocurrency market may increase, bringing new opportunities and challenges to investors. For investors seeking stability, they may need to pay more attention to market dynamics and adjust their investment strategies in a timely manner to cope with possible market fluctuations.

💡 Under the shadow of the "Sam Rule", the cryptocurrency market may become a new option for investors to hedge against traditional market risks. However, this also requires investors to have a higher risk awareness and market insight. Under the threat of recession, the safe-haven properties of cryptocurrencies may be recognized and accepted by more people.

🔍What do you think of the impact of the "Sam Rule" on the cryptocurrency market? Do you think now is the time to increase cryptocurrency investment, or should you be more cautious? Leave your opinion in the comments section!。#经济衰退预警 #萨姆规则 #加密货币投资策略

📊 Sahm Rule: A "crystal ball" or a smokescreen for recession?

Hello everyone! Today we are going to talk about the hot topic recently - the Sahm Rule.

The Sahm Rule was proposed by former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm in 2019 and is said to be an indicator that can be used to predict recessions. But the question is, is the Sahm Rule really reliable?

🔍 Let's first talk about the historical confirmations that have been obtained in the past. The Sahm Rule can indeed confirm the existence of a recession in the past recession cycle, but the problem is that it has never successfully predicted any recession in advance. Therefore, some people believe that this is actually like hindsight!

At the same time, there is also a view that the Sahm Rule was only proposed in 2019. Although the previous recessions can now be inferred based on this rule, the Sahm Rule did not successfully predict any signs of recession in advance. Therefore, we don't have to worry too much!
🤔 My personal opinion is that although many people are discussing the Sahm Rule now, don't forget that even the founder of the rule, Claudia Sahm, said that despite the weaker-than-expected economic data in recent days, the Fed does not need to cut interest rates urgently. Does this mean that the current data does not match her economic indicator, or are we over-interpreting it a bit?

📉 However, the market has been volatile in recent days, and everyone is looking for a signal that fits with it. But don't forget that true wisdom lies in comprehensive analysis, not relying on a single indicator. The Sahm Rule may be a valuable reference tool, but it has not yet proved itself to be a reliable prophet.

💬 So, here comes the question:
- What do you think of the Sahm Rule? Is it a magic weapon for predicting economic recessions, or is it just a coincidence?
- Will you rely on such economic indicators when making investment decisions?

Share your thoughts in the comments section, and let's discuss how to look at market signals more intelligently!
#萨姆规则 #经济衰退 #投资智慧 #SahmRule

A little-known fact: Since the Sam rule was proposed, there has not been a real verified recession (if you insist that the COVID-19 recession counts, just ignore what I said) #萨姆规则 #经济衰退