Today, many residents in Beijing and Shanghai received a big gift package. The government launched a consumption incentive policy with real money. The special subsidy funds for Shanghai alone exceeded 4 billion yuan. 85% of this money came from the country's super-long-term special government bonds, and 15% was borne by the municipal finance.
I won't list the specific subsidy items one by one, as the content is very long, so I suggest you search for relevant news. The main ones involved are car purchases, old car replacements, 2,000 yuan subsidies for the purchase of 8 types of home appliances, 15% subsidies for old home appliances, etc. It's not a gimmick, it's real benefits.
There are also discounts in Beijing. I received a notification to give out 20% off coupons, with a maximum subsidy of 2,000 yuan per item. I forwarded it to my wife and asked her to research what to buy. In fact, the Gunslinger gaming laptop I bought not long ago is within the promotion range. If I buy it now, I can save 2,000 yuan. I feel sad that I missed the big deal (the brand of laptops has been sold out)
So it is impossible to give money to 1.4 billion people across the country, but it is possible to give several billion consumption vouchers to Beijing and Shanghai in a small range. Then we will see the situation. I think it is possible to promote it to second-tier cities to boost the sluggish consumption.
Affected by this positive news, the home appliance sector surged by more than 3% today, becoming the sector with the highest increase in the two markets. The government issued 10 billion consumer vouchers, and the leverage effect can drive 40 billion in consumption. The people have received real benefits, which is much more real than the fake release of M2 idling. Keep issuing, don't stop.
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Today, the A-share turnover was 580 billion. Although the Shanghai Composite Index was in the red, the median of the entire market rose by 0.76%. Investors recovered a little bit of their losses, all from banks. The banking sector was -1.5% today, ranking last in the entire market.
Although the interest rate for existing mortgages was not finalized over the weekend, I think it is highly likely that this will be pushed forward, because the market has already seen an inverted interest rate spread of 1.5% between existing mortgages and first mortgages. This is of course seriously unreasonable, and the leeks with existing mortgages are not dead, they will definitely try every means to replace the loan to reduce interest expenses, which will eventually lead to various non-compliant chaos.
In the second half of last year, the government led a reduction in the interest rate on existing loans, with an overall reduction of 0.73%. The effect was obvious, but as the situation develops, another adjustment of a similar magnitude is needed to further reduce the pressure on those who make monthly payments and release consumption potential.
The CSI Bank Index has fallen 8% in the past five days, having lost all the gains in the second quarter. Some of the funds have flowed out of the banking sector and returned to the mass entrepreneurship and innovation sector. This is a gratifying thing for the mass entrepreneurship and innovation shareholders who are deeply in the red. However, we should also pay attention to a negative fact, that is, there is a clear outflow of funds from the A-share market as a whole. Even if the banks lose all the gains this year, the mass entrepreneurship and innovation sector will not be able to return to the level at the beginning of the year.
Many people look at the Shanghai Composite Index when judging the position of the stock market, but in fact the Shanghai Composite Index has been seriously distorted. The ChiNext Index, Science and Technology Innovation 50, CSI 500 and CSI 1000 have actually fallen to near the lows in February this year. I think it is no coincidence that the dividend sector's sudden collapse at this time is likely to be a part of the funds flowing back to buy at the bottom, intending to turn bicycles into motorcycles.
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1. Institutions judge that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 69%. When I saw the first half of the sentence, my heart skipped a beat. It turns out that the second half of the sentence is that the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 31%. My goodness, don't breathe heavily when you speak next time.
2. Today there is a Hong Kong stock that fell 98.4%, called Shengneng Group. This is another typical Hong Kong stock market maker. The market maker determines the market value and trading volume in order to make the stock meet the conditions for inclusion in the index. Once included in the index, some institutions will be found to take over the market, and finally the money will be shared privately. This is a particularly dark industry chain in Hong Kong, but this time their trick was exposed by the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission, saying that 31 shareholders held nearly 90% of the shares, and the shareholdings were highly concentrated, and then suddenly collapsed. I checked that the major shareholder’s name is Hou Haolong, who is from Xinxiang, Henan. The company is also from there. He also won the May 1st Labor Medal in 2013.
3. The World Bank predicts that India's GDP growth rate will rise from 6.6% to 7%. In the financial field, we see a thriving India, but on TikTok, we see an India where women are gang-raped every day.
4. Bridgewater Fund sold a large number of gold ETFs, almost clearing out its positions, but Goldman Sachs recently believes that gold still has great potential for growth. I personally don’t want to add gold ETFs at this position, and I won’t buy them unless they fall.
5. The foldable screen concept has risen well recently, mainly because it is expected that the market penetration rate of foldable screens may increase after the launch of Huawei mobile phones. The current optimistic expectation is that it can reach 4.8% in 2028, that is, 4.8 out of 100 mobile phones will use foldable screens. The current market penetration rate is about 1.5%. I am not against the hype of related concepts, but I still stick to my previous view that foldable screen mobile phones will definitely not be big in the medium and long term.
That’s all for today.