The US Federal Reserve has been talking about cutting interest rates for a long time, but there has been no actual cut so far. Yes, it is already August, the second half of the year. Do you think it can still be cut this year? Actually, there are two questions. One is whether the Fed can still cut interest rates this year. The other question is whether the Fed has already cut interest rates. Is it a cut or not? This may be a big problem. On the surface, the Fed has not cut interest rates so far. Whether it can cut interest rates this year, I say it is uncertain. Why do I say that? Because US Treasury bonds are not selling well. If you lower its interest rate, it will be even harder to sell. There is another big problem. If it cuts interest rates, the US dollar index may fall. What should we do? Ah, this is a very difficult decision. So now the US is doing something. What is it doing? First, the issuance of US Treasury bonds is decreasing in long-term bonds and increasing in short-term bonds. Why? Because the market demand for long-term U.S. Treasury bonds is decreasing, we can't be optimistic about you in the long term. Now it's not right, so we have to make do with short-term ones. Although the return is a little lower, the risk is a little lower. So now there is such a problem, that is, if the interest rate of U.S. Treasury bonds is further reduced, the Treasury bonds will not be sold, so they have this worry. Therefore, there is such a question now, saying whether I can cut interest rates immediately, then I have to use various reasons to say that I can't cut interest rates yet, but what is this actually? This is a risk premium debt product provided by the U.S. government for its Treasury bonds. The higher the risk, the higher the corresponding interest rate. In the past, the U.S. dollar was the safest bond, but now it is not safe, its risk has increased, and you have to increase the interest you pay to others. This is called risk premium. High risk is accompanied by high return. That's right. So it is because of the existence of this risk premium that he dare not blindly cut interest rates. So what does he do? He uses this trick to force other economies to cut interest rates, such as forcing the euro to cut interest rates. What is he actually doing in this way?That is, you have to cut interest rates first, leaving me room to cut interest rates. Why? Because if you cut interest rates, I will also cut interest rates, and my US dollar index will not fall. Do you understand this principle? The lower the interest rate, the more likely its exchange rate will depreciate. This is relative. Now there are 6 currencies in the US dollar index. If these 6 currencies all cut interest rates, then my dollar will be strong. I have not cut interest rates. If you all cut interest rates by a relatively large margin, and I cut a little, the US dollar index will not fall too much. This is how it is maintained. The credit of the US dollar maintains the hegemony of the US dollar, so that more people will not abandon the US dollar. Therefore, today the United States maintains high interest rates, in fact, more consideration is the hegemony of the US dollar, not inflation, nor employment, so it can falsify employment data. The economy is not bad, very good, our employment is very strong, so we don’t need to cut interest rates. In fact, today’s international struggle is the focus of the spearhead. In fact, it is the US dollar. Because of this focus, the international chaos cannot stop. Only in this way can they drive more capital to the United States and maintain it. The strength of the US dollar, so we need to look more, deeper, and farther. So you think it will not fall this year, right? It may fall, but it depends on whether other countries cooperate. Among the six currency countries in the US dollar index, the European euro accounts for 56%, nearly 57%, and then the Japanese yen ranks second, the British pound ranks third, and there are other currencies such as Sweden, Swiss franc, whether they cut interest rates, and how much they cut interest rates, and then we can decide whether the US dollar will cut interest rates. Understand this principle. #杰克逊霍尔年会 #美联储何时降息？ #美国7月PPI低于预期 $BTC $ETH $BNB
