1/ Yesterday, I thought that the market might use the data to re-hype the recession expectations and start the second exploration.

However, the data was unexpectedly good. US retail sales expenditures in July increased by 1% month-on-month, and the number of initial jobless claims last week was slightly lower than expected, falling to the lowest level since July.

The sharp rise in US stocks seems to have swept away the haze of recession, but we cannot be too optimistic at present. The pressure on the manufacturing industry is still there, and there is uncertainty in the short-term economy.

2/ But as a good student, the US stock market will never make people worry too much. If you are worried, it will be good to add some defensive stocks.

On the other hand, #BTC is not very good here. It basically ignores the data and starts the second exploration as scheduled.

Yesterday, the small gap of the previous rise was filled. Has the second exploration been completed? It should not be considered yet.

Personally, I want to wait patiently for the resonance area of ​​the previous low and 0.618, 53300-54200; and the lower edge of the channel near 51300.

3/ In addition, from a statistical perspective, is it better to cut interest rates by 25% or 50%?

Inflation and retail data provide reasons for a 25% cut, but do not support a 50% cut. The market interprets this as negative. Let's see how much the cut is.

Figure 1: It describes the performance of the S&P 1-5 years after the first 25% or 50% cut. From the data, a 25% cut is more friendly.

Figure 2: It shows that in addition to the rate cut, the economy is the key, and a rate cut in a non-recessionary environment can bring positive growth.