#美联储何时降息？ #美国失业率 $BTC

According to the current unemployment rate trend, the probability of a 50bp rate cut in September is extremely high. Even if the unemployment rate accelerates further, the rate can be cut by 75bp in September

It doesn’t matter if Intel plummets, because Intel is just like Yageo Vanke in A-shares. In 2007, Yageo Vanke was a big blue chip, but it is no longer the case now. Those who look at semiconductors know that Intel is not good

The core now is whether the unemployment rate in the United States will continue to accelerate. 3.9 in April, 4.0 in May, 4.1 in June, and 4.3 in July are far beyond expectations. And I have said before that the unemployment rate is a lagging data. Once it accelerates, it often means that companies are starting to close down in large numbers and companies can’t bear it. Then the acceleration is often inertial. You can see Dongda in the second half of 2022 What will happen in the future

Of course, the Fed has another explanation. On the one hand, the sharp rise in unemployment this time is due to the hurricane, and temporary layoffs account for a part of it. On the other hand, the Fed believes that the rise in unemployment this time is not caused by layoffs, but because illegal immigrants have taken away job opportunities for legal workers

I don’t know whether the Fed is right, or the Fed is too arrogant, just like in 2018, or too cautious, just like in 2021. No one knows

Last month, when the unemployment rate came out, I mentioned that theoretically the Fed should cut interest rates. Inflation is not the core variable later, and the job market is more important, because the unemployment rate accelerated last month (it only deteriorated by 0.1% in the previous few months, and it directly deteriorated by 0.1% last month), so I said that interest rates will definitely be cut in September

But of course I still think there is a small probability of recession, but yesterday’s data still makes it difficult to determine the depth of the recession. The SAHM rule of the Federal Reserve is not absolute. Under the market probability pricing, the sharp rise in unemployment rate increases the risk of a deep recession. Therefore, the core data in the future is the unemployment rate. Other data should also be paid attention to. If the unemployment rate continues to rise rapidly, then the US economy may have a hard landing, and the global economy will be bloody. Don’t think that if the US stock market collapses, funds will flow back to A-shares. Domestic problems are domestic. Now only foreign trade is good. If the US economy collapses, foreign trade will also deteriorate, and domestic demand is expected to shrink faster. So the big one may just be the beginning... I hope the US recession is controllable.