As time enters the second half of 2024, along with the increasingly "hot" temperature in the northern hemisphere, the financial market also expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year. And tonight, a moment that the global market is paying close attention to is undoubtedly coming: the Federal Reserve will announce its July interest rate decision at 2 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday.
Although an immediate rate cut is unlikely, the market expects the Fed to release the "ultimate trailer" for a rate cut in September. Market participants expect that the Fed will be able to officially "open the door" to a rate cut in September six weeks from now at tonight's meeting.
The Fed has met four times in the first half of this year, and each time it has considered a rate cut as a later consideration. But this time, developments in inflation and the labor market should lead officials to signal that a rate cut is likely at their September meeting.
For investors, given that the focus of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision tonight is not on whether there will be a rate cut this month, but whether the Fed will give an announcement on the next meeting - especially whether there will be a rate cut at the next meeting (September), any subtle changes in the details of the monetary policy statement released at 2 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday will be worth paying attention to.
In addition, the US non-farm payrolls data for July will be released two days after the interest rate meeting (Friday).