1/ The S&P fell 0.8%, the Nasdaq fell 2%, and the Russell rose 3.47%. The profit-taking of big tech stocks and the rotation of sectors continued.

The view is maintained. From the current point of view, it cannot be said that it is the beginning of a collapse, but it is still a normal correction.

This week's major events:

Macro: Thursday's Federal Reserve meeting; Friday's major non-farm report

Earnings report release: Microsoft, META, AAPL, Amazon, the focus is still on AI, but the focus has become "when to realize" and "expected investment and return"

2/ Last week, both the US second quarter GDP (2.8%, far exceeding expectations) and the June core PCE (in line with expectations) supported the expectation of a September rate cut, and even the probability of a 75 basis point rate cut before the end of the year has increased to 60%.

The market has also begun to hype that every subsequent interest rate meeting will cut interest rates, and the premise is definitely a sudden weakening of the economy or a sudden increase in unemployment, but there is no sign of this at present. Therefore, the consensus of the September rate cut is the best result.

3/ Last week, we mentioned that #BTC may encounter resistance at the upper edge of the channel, but if the callback does not break 63500, it is still expected to continue to rise.

Last week, the lowest price just rebounded to around 63500 and began to rebound. It has now stood on the upper edge of the channel and touched the VAH of the overall channel consolidation area.

If the closing price is still stable above tomorrow, the parallel top of 72000 and the previous high of 74000 will be reached with a high probability.

4/ I wonder if it will successfully break through this time? If it continues to stand above the channel, the bull flag that I have been thinking about for a long time may really come true, and the imagination space will open up at once.

I don’t know yet. I want to see more, but I dare not see too much. Continue to take profits in batches upwards, and you may sell them at a high price, but this is discipline and you have to abide by it. If you ride a roller coaster every day, your money will not be in your pocket.

August 4 is the new moon, which has been quite accurate in the past few months. I wonder what will happen this time?