#washtrading Community Insights & Market Sentiment

$MUU within two hours, it was smashed to 24.70, then pulled back to 25.94. A 4-hour K-line swallowed 3.05 million lots of chips, with a trading volume of 78.59 million. This is not distribution. It’s a washout.

Market signals

Funding rate 0.00%. Bulls and bears refuse to yield to each other. Mark price 25.94, spot price 25.94, and the basis is almost zero. What does this mean? Leveraged funds have already been completely cleared out. That previous wave of sell-off uprooted the longs. What’s left is essentially the spot order book. When the fee rate goes to zero, it is often the night before a turning point. I’ve seen this signal too many times—when the funding rate becomes stagnant like dead water, then it suddenly rallies or suddenly crashes. No middle ground.

Market sentiment

Over the past 24 hours, it’s up 0.74%, and on the surface it looks calm. But the 24-hour trading value is 122 million. For a coin whose market cap isn’t that large, this volume isn’t small. It means someone is absorbing. After that needle drop to 24.70, no one cuts. Instead, it’s quickly yanked back up. The sentiment isn’t panic—it’s numbness. Numbness is more dangerous than panic—because it indicates the trapped positions have already gone flat and won’t keep getting smashed lower. When nobody in the group is cursing, the bottom is close.

Whale activity

Look at volume. In the past 120 hours, the two largest volume bars each smashed out two lows at 24.80 and 25.21. The volumes were 3.18 million and 3.83 million units, respectively. But pay attention: after both of these, there was no continuation to make new lows. After the whales smashed, they stopped. It’s not that there was no inventory to sell—it’s that they didn’t want to sell anymore. True distribution happens while pulling up and selling out, not just smashing two bearish candles and calling it a day. This is a classic washout technique—smash to generate panic volume, forcing retail to hand over chips, and then slowly absorb sideways. Smart money never enters with trumpets blaring.

Volume-price structure

The 24-hour high is 26.70, the low is 24.70. The weighted average price is 25.77. The current price 25.94 is above the average. The volume-price relationship is healthy. Pullbacks with decreasing volume and rebounds with expanding volume—this is the standard bottom structure. On the 4-hour timeframe, support levels are 24.70 and 25.21; resistance levels are 27.43 and 27.69. 24.70 was tested once and has already been confirmed effective. 25.21 was tested twice and it’s held. The structure is converging. Trading volume shrank from the peak of 3.83 million units to the latest 180,000 units—a decline of 95%. When volume shrinks to the extreme, it signals a change is coming.

K-line details

The second-to-last 4-hour K-line closed at 26.04, with a rather long lower wick. The low went down to 24.76, and the close pulled back above 26. The previous candle was even harsher: the low was 24.70, and it closed at 25.28. Both K-lines found support in the same range. A double-bottom pattern has formed. Looking further back, the rally-and-retrace from 26.70 to 29.09 had a very long upper shadow and also very large volume—that was a fake breakout. Now it has fallen back to recharge. If the next candle can hold above 26.50, the bottom is confirmed.

Nini’s plan

Slightly bullish, but not in a hurry. At the current price 25.94, I’m placing a long order around 25.20, with a stop loss at 24.50. The first target is 27.43; if it breaks, then we’ll look at 29.09. Position size is not large. This kind of market can’t be rushed. If the washout isn’t over yet, it may grind a bit more. I’m waiting.

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