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The Fed Holds Interest Rates for the Fifth Consecutive Time at 3.50-3.75%

The Fed officially held its benchmark interest rate at 3.50-3.75% at the FOMC meeting on Wednesday (29/7), with a 9-3 vote, amid inflation pressures triggered by the Trump-Iran war.

Key Points

Regional Fed presidents Lorie Logan, Beth Hammack, and Neel Kashkari dissented, calling for a 25 bps rate hike

Consumer inflation eased to 3.5% YoY last month, but is expected to rise again due to fluctuations in oil prices amid the Trump-Iran war

The Fed said the economy is expanding at a "solid pace" and remains committed to its 2% inflation target

Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Lisa Cook also voiced concerns about the potential for further rate increases

Market Impact

Mixed sentiment for Indonesia: the hold on interest rates eases immediate pressure on the rupiah

Additional factor for BI Rate room to maneuver going forward, amid still-elevated domestic rupiah pressure.
#SAHAM

🌍 GLOBAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE

⚠️ Regime: Mixed, hawkish RBA, AI sentiment split
🧭 Main Driver: Expectations of RBA rate hikes and split AI sentiment
🎯 Confidence: 5/10

With no major US economic data, the focus is on the hawkish RBA stance and AI sentiment split between infrastructure investment and a delay in the OpenAI model. The short-term outlook is likely to be wait-and-see, with sector volatility.

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🛢 OIL 🟢 (6/10)
Bias: 📈 LONG
Urgency: Medium
• Oil prices are stronger
• Australian energy stocks are expected to rise
• No new supply disruptions
• A hawkish RBA could limit upside
Oil is supported by stronger prices and expectations for energy stocks, but without new supply disruptions, the rally may be capped.

🥇 GOLD (XAU) 🟡 (5/10)
Bias: ⏳ WAIT
Urgency: Low
• No new inflation data or yields
• Mining company news has no macro impact
• Market focus is on AI and the RBA
Gold has no direct catalyst; price action is waiting for yields and DXY, which is not reflected in the news.

₿ BITCOIN 🟡 (5/10)
Bias: ⏳ WAIT
Urgency: Low
• No ETF flows or crypto regulation
• Liquidity and the USD are not in focus yet
• Mixed risk-on/risk-off sentiment
Bitcoin has little in the way of catalysts—no ETF flows or new regulation—so direction is set by global risk-on/risk-off sentiment.

📉 STOCKS 🟡 (5/10)
Bias: ⏳ WAIT
Urgency: Medium
• OpenAI cancels the GPT-6.1 release, weighing on AI sentiment
• Samsung adds $1B to AI infrastructure
• Raytheon wins a $20.7B contract, and RTX shares rise
• The RBA is expected to raise rates again
Mixed equities: the delay of GPT-6.1 weighs on AI sentiment, but Samsung’s investment and Raytheon’s contract provide sector support; a hawkish RBA adds caution.
#saham #BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #XAU #oil

*DON'T MIX UP SBR/RBS IN FOREX, CRYPTO & STOCKS! Here's the Difference 🚨*

Many beginners think SBR (Support Becomes Resistance) & RBS (Resistance Becomes Support) are the same in every market. WRONG—THE CHARACTERISTICS ARE DIFFERENT!

Here’s a summary so you don’t get hit by a False Breakout:

*1. FOREX & GOLD (XAUUSD) - The Neatest 👑*
The most liquid market. If resistance breaks (RBS), the retest is usually very clean—price bounces right back.
Strategy: Place Buy Limit / Sell Limit in the flip zone. A tight Stop Loss can work.
Nature: Rarely manipulated.

*2. CRYPTO ($BTC , ALTCOIN) - The Wildest 🤡*
Often gives Fakeouts! Breaks, then comes back—breaks again. If you enter right when the breakout happens, you’re often swept.
Strategy: YOU MUST wait for confirmation! Wait for a retest + an H4 bullish/bearish candle + big volume. Don’t use small timeframes.
Nature: Volatile, so your stop loss must be wider.

*3. STOCKS (IDXC) - The Trickiest 👀*
Breakout without volume = a trap set by the “big players” (bandar). Many bull traps happen at RBS.
Strategy: Check volume & the broker summary first. A valid breakout happens when volume is above the 3x average.
Nature: Volume is king.

*Conclusion:*
The SBR/RBS concept is the same, but execution is different.
Forex = Technicals alone are enough.
Crypto = Technicals + patience to wait for confirmation.
Stocks = Technicals + Volume + the bandar.

Which market do you trade the most? And where do you most often get false breakouts? Comment below!


#trading #technicalanalysis #forex #FedRateWatch #saham #SBR #RBS #learntrading

main aman aja
#CPIWatch #saham $AAPL.US