ETH bleeding 2% while BTC holds relatively steady. The ETH/BTC ratio continues to be a one-way trade โ and not in ETH's favor.
But here's why I'm not rushing to short it.
๐ The Data:
โข Price: $2,454.94
โข 4H RSI: 49.5 โ dead neutral, no momentum either way
โข Daily RSI: 62.6 โ still structurally bullish
โข Volume: $1.02B โ normal, no panic selling
โข SMA7 4H: $2,479 โ price is BELOW its short-term average
โข SMA25 4H: $2,447 โ acting as support right now
โข Daily SMA99: $1,915 โ ETH is still 28% above the long-term trend
The 4H chart is compressing. Price between SMA7 and SMA25, RSI at 49.5, volume normal. This is the calm before a directional move.
๐ฏ Trade Plan (Short-term fade):
โข Entry zone: $2,436 - $2,474
โข Stop Loss: $2,531 (above SMA7 4H + buffer)
โข TP1: $2,363
โข TP2: $2,290
โข TP3: $2,192
R/R is 1.2x on TP1, improves to 2.3x on TP2 and 4.0x on TP3. The short thesis works if ETH loses the $2,435 floor and retests the $2,290 area.
โก The counter-argument: daily structure is bullish and L/S ratio at 1.52 means the crowd is already somewhat long. If BTC stabilizes, ETH could snap back fast. This is a scalp, not a position trade.
I'm watching $2,435 as the line in the sand. Above it, ETH is consolidating. Below it, we're heading to $2,290.
ETH bulls or bears โ who's winning this weekend? ๐
#ETH #Ethereum #DYOR
โ ๏ธ Not financial advice. Trade your own plan. Crypto is volatile โ manage your risk.