While BTC remains stuck around $77,500, an instrument that had become a symbol of stress has instead recovered to par: STRC.
The facts: STRC, Strategy’s variable-rate preferred stock (par value $100, 12% coupon), has returned to around $99 — nearly par — after four months below it, according to coverage of Strategy’s Q3 call (Coinotag, Oct. 31) and a recap of the same call (CoinJuice, Oct. 31). STRC briefly fell to around $75 in June. The Q3 call also revealed: net income of $19.53 billion (including a $20.91 billion fair-value gain on BTC), and holdings of 848,517 BTC as of Oct. 25 — but net BTC purchases that quarter were only around 1,666 BTC (bought 7,218, sold 5,552). Capital was redirected to a $5.07 billion dollar reserve (about 3.4 years of coverage for preferred dividends plus interest) and roughly $2.04 billion in STRC buybacks year to date. Starting November 1, STRC is switching to daily dividends: $1.00 per share throughout November at an annual rate of 12%.
Market context: BTC is still below $80,000 following a major hack this week, and the market remains fearful. So STRC’s recovery isn’t a reflection of BTC’s price — it reflects Strategy’s credit market improving first.
What I’m watching next: whether daily dividends actually begin on November 1, whether STRC holds near par if BTC tests $76,000 again, and whether the $5.07 billion reserve is enough to reassure preferred shareholders.
My opinion: this quarter, Strategy didn’t add BTC — it repaired its balance sheet. STRC returning to par means the market has regained confidence in its credit structure, even though BTC’s price hasn’t recovered. I think that’s actually more important to watch: credit confidence is recovering before the price.
What do you think — is STRC’s recovery a sign that confidence in the treasury company is returning, or is it just the effect of $2 billion in buybacks?
This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.
#Strategy #SahamAS