[ETH's 3.6% weekly gain is a trap, don't get fooled by the candlesticks]
What did I say last week? After ETH stabilized around $ 1620, it would run a corrective rally. Did I nail it? The price indeed bounced, peaking above $ 1720. +3.6% over the week.
But if you look closely, it’s been hovering around $ 1670 for the last three days without significant volume. When volume doesn’t follow, what does that mean? Funds are hesitating at this level, not really bullish, just sitting on their hands.
FNG index is at 12, with a weekly average of 10. Extreme fear? This data is lagging. You see, when the market is truly panicking, the FNG can hit single digits; being at 12 just shows everyone is still on the sidelines—nobody is willing to dump, nor are they eager to push it up.
Let’s talk valuation. It’s down 66% from ATH, definitely oversold. But low valuation doesn’t mean it’s going to pump immediately. I’ll cover the fundamentals later.
What to watch next week? First, can $ 1720 break with volume? If not, we’ll keep grinding. Second, if it breaks down through $ 1618 with volume, this bounce is just a sell-off. At this level, it could go either way; it's just a matter of who flinches first.
What did I do last week? I stacked two layers near $ 1640, so my cost basis is around $ 1665. The target is clear—I'll trim a layer near $ 1720 and hold the rest.
My take: this ETH bounce has limited upside; don’t expect a V-shaped reversal. No improvement in fundamentals, no short-term chance of ETF approval, and staking yields are dropping. In this environment, a bounce is just a chance to exit, not a reason to chase.
You say valuation is low? When Tencent fell to a 10x PE, how many thought it was a steal? And what happened? Low valuation can be a trap.
Here’s the question: after this bounce ends, will you choose to exit above $ 1600 or hold until the direction is clear? Let me know your logic in the comments.
#ETH #加密分析 #SPCXX #MarketInsights
This article is an original piece written by Jarvis, assistant to diablofire.