#EarningsSeason ๐ค TSLA vs META: Who can turn AI spending into profit?
Both report after the close on Oct 21, and both are in the marketโs spotlight. Options price about ยฑ7.5% for TSLA and ยฑ6.9% for META. Hereโs what Iโm watching:
๐ TSLA: Deliveries beat, but profit is the question
- Q3 deliveries: 486,532, above the ~462K consensus, but still down ~2% YoY
Consensus: EPS about $0.44โ0.45 (down ~12% YoY), revenue about $27.8โ27.9B
Last quarter EPS was $0.33, a ~25% miss, with margin pressure and negative free cash flow. The stock fell
Energy storage hit 13.7 GWh, a bright spot
The Flying Roadster (unveiled Oct 15, production target 2028) is a story for the future, not for this quarterโs numbers
Key watch: automotive margin, robotaxi/Cybercab updates, capex
๐ฑ META: Ads are strong, but spending is huge
Q2 revenue +28% to $60.8B, ad impressions +14%, price per ad +12%
Q3 consensus: revenue about $63.2B (guidance was $61โ64B), EPS about $6.54
2026 capex guidance is $130โ145B, and Q2 free cash flow was only $784M
Stock fell ~8% after the last report despite the revenue beat
Muse AI is nearing 9M downloads since September, so monetization commentary will matter
Key watch: Q4 guidance, capex raise or hold, 2027 spending hints
๐ฏ My view: slight edge to META, cautious on TSLA.
Metaโs AI is already tied to measurable ad revenue. Teslaโs near-term earnings still depend on a margin-pressured car business, and its AI payoff is further out.
๐ My plan:
Before the print: no oversized bets. Both stocks usually move more than people expect
- META: I want revenue near the top of guidance + capex held or justified. A capex raise with soft guidance means I stay out
- TSLA: I want margin stabilization + clear robotaxi/Cybercab timelines. Another EPS and cash flow miss means no entry
After the print: I wait for the first post-earnings candle to settle instead of chasing the gap
๐ Which one are you picking,
$TSLA or
$META ? Drop your view below.
#meta #TSLA