Old Dog stumbled upon EWY late at night, up 3.816% in the last 24 hours, price pinned at 183.35, volume surged to 86.75 million, not explosive but definitely has that pent-up energy. What really got me sitting up was the funding rate, at 0.00014806; while it’s not a big positive number, it hasn’t flipped red for several days, with open interest piling up to 93,000 contracts, nearly 20% fatter than the average over the past two weeks. This scenario of long positions getting squeezed while paying overnight fees is something Old Dog has seen more than once; it either continues to squeeze or gets slammed down hard.
This wave of EWY’s movement isn’t a lone wolf. I checked on-chain, and in the binance-tradfi-perp route, the concentration of net longs at the top addresses is visibly rising. Market makers have their orders set strategically, with thick sell walls from 183 to 185; it doesn't seem like a true pressure, more like they’re waiting for high-flying opponents to step in and catch a bottom. The crypto market just regained some strength during Friday’s night trading, and the stablecoin inflow in the Asian market suddenly accelerated, while at the same time, EWY’s buy orders began to ramp up. Korean retail traders are juggling US stocks in one hand and crypto in the other; you can see the same pulse in both markets every now and then. Last year’s Q2 bounce was similar, with EWY rising 15% from its lows, and the on-chain perpetual funding flipping from negative to positive; spot prices held solid for a week before getting slapped back during a US stock market opening night.
If I just focus on EWY, I’d say the expectations for Korean exports are warming up, sentiment is turning positive. But I’m watching the interplay between perpetual contracts and funding rates; with the positive rates holding firm, shorts either don’t dare to enter or are waiting for a signal to flip. There’s something counterintuitive about the current sentiment; there are articles everywhere saying this wave for EWY is different, aiming for 190 or even higher. The more uniform that noise gets, the less confident Old Dog feels about jumping in. The last similar setup was when I chased it at 190 back in March; perpetual open interest reached a new high, with rates double what they are now, and I ended up getting stopped out, that pain is still etched in my account.
So my take is straightforward: I won’t chase longs around 183, I’ll accept missing out. If the 4-hour candlestick closes above 187 and the funding rate isn’t explosively positive, I might take a small position, maxing out at two layers, with a stop loss at 184; if I’m wrong, I’ll take my exit. If it grinds below 178 for too long and slips further down, I’m ready to open a short position to catch a long squeeze.
Trading Tags:
#BinanceFutures #TradFi #USDⓈM
#EWY #EWYUSDT $EWY