$ARX Recently, the market has continued to drift downward—this “warm-water-boiled-frog” style selloff is the most exhausting 📉.
🔍 **Breakdown of the Major Selloff Causes (Based on On-Chain Data)**
From the provided 15m candlestick chart, the market is in a **highly low-volatility state** (average range only 0.76%), but the power between bulls and bears is extremely imbalanced:
1. **Liquidity is drying up**: The average trading volume per candle is only about 200k; the minimum is even just 1247. This means very few sell orders can punch a deep hole, with no major capital stepping in to absorb.
2. **Bullish confidence has collapsed**: There are many bearish candles. Although the bodies are not large (weak bearish), there’s almost no bullish counterattack (the 9 false bullish candles have only a 6.7% real body ratio). Funds are just grinding around the 0.1485 area—they have no intention to push a rally.
3. **Periodic suppression**: Without seeing a breakout via a high-volume bullish candle, all rebounds are merely continuations downward. The current sideways consolidation looks more like building up strength for the next leg lower 📉.
⚡ **Short-Term Opening Position Plan (Focus on Low-Volatility Bounce Trading)**
Right now, the order book depth is extremely poor. Large funds should not enter; smaller funds can attempt **ultra-short squeezes**:
* **Position**: Price is nearing recent psychological support, but bulls have not mounted a counterattack.
* **Strategy**: **It’s not recommended to blindly catch a falling knife.** Wait for a 15m candle to break out with volume (>500k) above 0.1495 and hold it before considering a very light long entry. Place a stop-loss below 0.1470.
* **Preferred**: Stay on the sidelines. In this “low-volatility drifting down” environment, it’s often a process of digesting sell pressure. Without a clear bottom-reversal signal (such as a volume-widening envelope after a needle/price wick), the bearish trend is unchanged.
Never go heavy on the wrong side in illiquid “air coins”—be patient and wait for right-side signals ⚠️.
#ARX #Crypto #Trading