Bitcoin (
$BTC ) could climb to between $380,000 and $450,000 from March 2028, according to crypto analyst Sykodelic, whose latest market outlook has sparked a heated debate on X over whether the current bear market is actually a mid-cycle correction.
The forecast stands out because it argues that
$BTC has not yet completed its broader bull cycle, even with many traders believing that the market topped in October 2025.
Analyst Says Bitcoin Is Still in the Middle of a Larger Cycle
In a July 29 newsletter preview shared on X, Sykodelic said the current bear market is a mid-cycle correction and not the end of the cycle, comparing it to stretches from 2011 to 2013 and 2019 to 2021. With that in mind, the analyst predicted the OG cryptocurrency will reach between $380,000 and $450,000 starting in March 2028.
His price target leans on two tools: the 200-week simple moving average multiplied by five and a quantile-95 statistical band already sitting near $330,000.
Analyst Says Bitcoin Is Still in the Middle of a Larger Cycle
In a July 29 newsletter preview shared on X, Sykodelic said the current bear market is a mid-cycle correction and not the end of the cycle, comparing it to stretches from 2011 to 2013 and 2019 to 2021. With that in mind, the analyst predicted the OG cryptocurrency will reach between $380,000 and $450,000 starting in March 2028.
His price target leans on two tools: the 200-week simple moving average multiplied by five and a quantile-95 statistical band already sitting near $330,000.
Naysayers Dig In
That forecast drew immediate criticism. One of the doubters, X user Bitcoin Daily, who identified themselves as a data scientist, said they ran Sykodelic’s own 890-day spacing rule backward from the October 2025 high and landed in spring 2023, which, by his own framework, would make October 2025 the top, not the midpoint.
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They also noted that Sykodelic’s chart had entirely skipped the 2015 to 2017 cycle. Furthermore, his two reference rallies measured different things, with June 2011 being a full cycle top followed by an 89% drop, while June 2019 was a bear market rally high that fell 55%.
Another thing Bitcoin Daily highlighted was that the last three cycle tops landed 525, 546, and 534 days after their halving. Meanwhile, March 2028 falls 38 days before next year’s halving, meaning Sykodelic’s $380,000 top would come in a period where such an event has never happened before.
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