Recent market volatility has left many Dogecoin (DOGE) holders feeling anxious. However, according to analysts' latest on-chain analysis, a key signal is emerging: Dogecoin may have entered a zone of deep undervaluation on the blockchain.
Dogecoin's price is way below its 'actual cost'
Data shows that the theoretical price of Dogecoin is $0.08475, but the actual market price is around $0.12845. This means the current trading price is about 34% lower than the average cost reflected by on-chain trading activities!
To put it simply: most holders are in the red, and the market has taken a considerable hit.
Two key indicators are sending warnings.
1. MVRV = 0.6730: Market cap is about 32.7% lower than realized value, indicating valuation is at a historical low.
2. NUPL = -0.4859: categorized as a 'surrender sell-off,' indicating that panic sentiment is being released.
Aphractal AI points out: 'This is currently the clearest signal on the Dogecoin blockchain, average holders are in a loss state, and assets are in undervalued territory. MVRV below 1 and NUPL negative means the market is burdened with massive unrealized losses, not excessive optimism.'
But has DOGE hit the bottom? Not necessarily.
The report also reminds us that Dogecoin's long-term delta growth rate is -77.79%, showing that the speed of valuation expansion is far below previous levels.
We're still in the 'post-distribution/low growth phase,' not at the starting point of a structural bull market.
On-chain activity: fund movement is faster than user growth, with 37,510 active addresses (up 13.71% in 24 hours) and 23,665 transactions (up 3.88% in 24 hours, but down 3.97% over 7 days), with an adjusted on-chain transaction volume of $185.55 million (up 69.69% in 24 hours!).
The conclusion is clear: large transfers are driving growth, not the daily retail activity. Dogecoin is showing characteristics of 'value flow over user flow.'
Exchange balances: slowly decreasing, not a sign of aggressive accumulation.
Exchange reserves stand at 28.33 billion DOGE (approximately $2.42 billion), down 0.20% in the last 24 hours and down 0.60% over the past 7 days. This indicates that selling pressure is slowly easing, but no clear accumulation signal has formed yet.
Market structure remains weak: down 4.59% in the last 7 days, down 21.99% in the last 30 days, down 31.69% year-to-date, and down 58.01% over the last year. Current price is 23.09% below the 200-day moving average, RSI is nearing oversold territory (33.99), and MACD is still showing a bearish trend.
Derivatives market: Bulls are still aggressive.
Open interest is $750.82 million, with a long-short ratio of 2.3167 (retail is clearly leaning long), but the delta value between large holders and retail is -0.3004, indicating that big money isn't following the optimistic sentiment.
In the past 24 hours, Dogecoin's liquidation total reached $2.3 million, with longs liquidating $1.62 million, accounting for 70.6%, showing clear long pressure.
Key recovery threshold: $0.12845.
This is Dogecoin's realized price. Only when the price rebounds and stabilizes at this level can we truly say the gap between spot price and holding cost is narrowing. As of the time of writing, Dogecoin is priced at $0.08516.