Crypto With Ali

Investing.com - Jefferies telah membangun kerangka kuantitatif baru untuk penetapan harga emas yang menargetkan $4.650 per ons pada akhir tahun, dengan mengesampingkan pendorong tradisional seperti suku bunga riil dan dolar AS demi perilaku cadangan bank sentral dan defisit fiskal.
https://investing.com/pro/landing-pagelanding-page
Proyeksi ini mengisyaratkan kenaikan sekitar 5% dari harga spot. Bagi investor pasar saham, ekspresi ekuitas yang paling langsung dari reli emas yang berkelanjutan tetaplah para penambang emas besar dan perusahaan royalti — nama-nama seperti Newmont dan Agnico Eagle, yang pendapatan dan arus kas bebasnya meningkat secara mekanis ketika harga emas terealisasi naik di atas biaya keberlanjutan all-in mereka.

The PONS Bag from Unipcs is now worth nearly $10 million. He is currently occupying an insane $PONS position.
He initially invested only $67.7K in 10.9M PONS, but that bag now has a value of more than $9.99M. That is more than $9 million in unrealized profit from the initial entry, or roughly a return of 149 times.
The kind of on-chain trade that you don't often see is a bet of $67K turning into almost $10M. Additionally, he is still holding the entire bag, so the most interesting aspect right now is what happens if #pons continues to run.
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#ZECHitsANewAllTimeHigh #BitcoinETFsBiggestDailyInflowSinceJanuary #RussiaUkraine72-hourCeasefire #USAugustJobGrowthNearlyTriplesForecast #USAugustAvgHourlyEarningsRise3.1%

Emas turun lebih lanjut pada hari Selasa setelah berbalik dari level tertinggi lebih dari tiga bulan pekan lalu.
Ekspektasi Fed yang hawkish dan kenaikan imbal hasil Treasury membuat logam mulia ini tetap berada di bawah tekanan.
XAU/USD menguji zona support kunci saat momentum beralih memihak para penjual.
Emas (XAU/USD) memperpanjang koreksinya dari level tertinggi lebih dari tiga bulan yang disentuh pekan lalu dan jatuh ke level terendah baru dalam dua pekan pada hari Selasa. Meningkatnya ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga Federal Reserve (Fed) dan ketegangan baru di Timur Tengah tetap menjadi pendorong utama di balik penurunan terbaru. Namun, data ekonomi AS yang lebih lemah dari perkiraan membantu menahan penurunan lebih lanjut.

The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 54.6 in August from 55.6 in July, missing the market forecast of 55.2. The ISM Prices Paid Index held steady at 71.1, below expectations of 72.0, while JOLTS Job Openings rose to 7.271 million in July from 7.182 million but fell short of the 7.3 million forecast.
Despite the data misses, expectations that the Fed could raise interest rates as soon as this month keep the US Dollar and Treasury yields supported. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading around 99.64, up 0.23% on the day. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield hovers around 4.76% after touching 4.80%, its highest level since January 2025.
A firmer US Dollar makes Dollar-denominated Gold more expensive for overseas buyers, while higher Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal.
Chair Kevin Warsh’s tough rhetoric on inflation at the Jackson Hole Symposium revived rate hike bets, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing around a 65% probability of a hike at the September 15-16 meeting, up from roughly 40% a week ago.
Fed Governor Michael Barr added to the hawkish tone on Tuesday, saying that “the persistence of inflation above target creates risks.” Barr said he favours steady rates if confident inflation is moderating but warned that “if inflation doesn’t moderate soon, it will be time for an interest rate hike.”
At the same time, rising Oil prices are adding to inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations that major central banks may need to keep monetary policy tight. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil advances for a second consecutive day following the latest flare-up around the Strait of Hormuz.
Typically, inflation and geopolitical concerns support Gold. However, the market is currently reacting through the interest rate channel, and the metal tends to perform poorly when interest rates and Treasury yields rise.
Sellers are therefore likely to retain the upper hand in the near term, although upcoming US economic data and developments in the Middle East could trigger fresh volatility. Attention now shift to the ADP Employment Change report on Wednesday and the closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.

Iran and Oman agreed terms on administering the Strait of Hormuz, sending Brent below $90 for the first time since the conflict escalated — removing the energy-driven inflation shock from the table precisely as Warsh prepares to speak. Bitcoin held just under $80,000 after an overnight run to $81,280, with eight consecutive days of ETF inflows totaling $2.8B — August already the strongest inflow month of 2026. The $6.4B options expiry cleared with max pain at $68,000, roughly $12,000 below where Bitcoin settled. California passed AB 2409 barring officials from issuing meme coins. Dollar edged higher as the yen weakened.
$6.4 Billion in Bitcoin Options Expire With Price Near $80,000 and Max Pain at $68,000
About 81,700 Bitcoin options worth $6.4B settled on Deribit at 08:00 UTC Friday. Max pain sat at $68,000-$70,000 — roughly $12,000 below where Bitcoin actually traded — a gap that measures how unanticipated the rally was. Options built during the six-week range between $61,500 and $66,900 at BVIV lows of 35.59% priced a narrow outcome distribution; calls at $75,000 and $80,000 that were far out-of-the-money when written finished near or in the money. BVIV climbed to 47% through the rally. Post-expiry, Deribit's Pequignot pointed to call spreads as the preferred structure for September upside exposure, with puts remaining expensive relative to calls. The supply wall at $80,000-$82,000 — where nearly 8% of Bitcoin's circulating supply sits — is the next test.
Solana Jumps 20% on the Week as Bitcoin Tests $80,000 Ahead of Jackson Hole
Bitcoin ran to $81,280 overnight before pulling back just below $80,000 ahead of Warsh's keynote. Solana surged 4% to $101 — 20% on the week. Ether +1% to $2,492, XRP +2% to $1.43, BNB +1% to $714. The Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement sent Brent below $90 — down 5%+ on the week — removing the primary inflation shock heading into the Fed's September 16 decision. Futures still price 35% odds of a September hike and fully price a move by December. Bitcoin has rallied through rising hike expectations all month — a hawkish Warsh confirms what's already priced, but removes the ambiguity that has let the rally run. LMAX's Joel Kruger: "setbacks should now be limited, with the May high just below $83,000."
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Closes Marginally Higher as Precious Metals Rally and AI Names Fall
The Hang Seng closed up 0.07% as China Silver Group and Summit Resources both gained 7%+, while AI names Zhipu and MINIMAX-W fell 6% and 4% respectively — the same precious-metals-up, AI-down divergence visible across global markets for weeks. Chinese AI names not participating in the Nvidia-driven regional lift points to something separate from the demand story: the DUV lithography breakthrough and Nvidia pausing its AI cloud financing initiative are the specific overhangs. Gold slipped to $4,587 even as Hong Kong metals equities rallied — a common divergence between commodity and miners when equity flows lag the underlying.
California AB 2409 Passes Legislature, Would Bar Officials From Issuing Meme Coins
AB 2409 has passed both chambers and awaits the governor's signature. The bill would prohibit California public officials from issuing meme coins and — from January 1, 2027 — bar digital asset service providers from offering California residents trading in meme coins issued by any federal, state or local official anywhere. The compliance obligation falls on exchanges, which would need to screen listings by issuer's public official status. The bill directly parallels the ethics provision that has stalled the federal CLARITY Act — California is legislating at the state level the question Congress cannot resolve. The CLARITY Act missed its August voting window and still needs 10 Senate Democrats to clear 60 votes. State laws and SEC rulemaking are filling the gap.
Dollar Index Rises To 99.213 As Yen Weakens
The DXY edged up to 99.213 from 99.159 as the yen weakened to 159.67 per dollar. The dollar holding just above 99 — below its 200-day average of 99.1 — keeps the weaker-dollar backdrop that has supported both Bitcoin and gold broadly intact. A sustained break above 99.5 would begin to tighten that support. The yen at 159.67 keeps the carry trade unwind risk in the background — the same mechanism that crashed Bitcoin from $65,000 to $50,000 in a week in July 2024 becomes more live as the yen weakens further. Warsh's Jackson Hole tone will be the primary determinant of where the dollar goes from here.
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#SOLJumps20%OnTheWeek #CaliforniaBillWouldBarOfficialMemeCoins #$6.4BBitcoinOptionsExpire #TRONMainnetActivatesTVMPragueOsaka #QatarExtendsLNGForceMajeureByOneMonth

HYPE melonjak lebih dari 6% dalam beberapa jam setelah Presiden Donald Trump menyatakan bahwa regulator sedang bekerja untuk membawa Hyperliquid ke AS dengan cara yang sepenuhnya legal dan patuh. Menurut BeInCrypto, Trump mengaitkan upaya tersebut kepada Ketua Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Michael Selig, yang memimpin upaya itu dalam pertemuan Gedung Putih bersama para eksekutif kripto dan teknologi pada Rabu, 19 Agustus.
Trump mengklaim bahwa Selig sedang bekerja untuk mencegah Hyperliquid masuk ke Amerika Serikat, dan Selig berjanji untuk memberikan informasi tambahan pada Kamis. HYPE diperdagangkan mendekati $68,19 pada saat artikel ini diterbitkan, dengan kapitalisasi pasar sekitar $15,1 miliar.

Menteri Keuangan AS Scott Bessent mengatakan bahwa peningkatan pembelian kembali (buyback) sekuritas Treasury yang diumumkan pekan ini dapat melebihi $4 miliar per masing-masing seri, menurut Bloomberg. Berbicara pada Kamis di CNBC, Bessent mengatakan "kami punya perangkat yang besar, jadi kita akan lihat," sambil menambahkan bahwa sebagian dari langkah tersebut adalah sinyal dan dimaksudkan untuk menunjukkan adanya keyakinan bahwa imbal hasil tidak mencerminkan fundamental yang mendasarinya.
Komentar tersebut muncul setelah pernyataan Departemen Keuangan AS pada Rabu bahwa pihaknya akan meningkatkan ukuran buyback untuk sekuritas berjangka lebih panjang "setidaknya dua kali lipat." Dampak di pasar bersifat sementara; obligasi tenor 30 tahun AS menghapus kenaikan yang terjadi setelah pengumuman mengejutkan tersebut pada Kamis. Imbal hasil untuk sekuritas 10 tahun dan 30 tahun tetap lebih tinggi setelah komentarnya.