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Apple is facing a lawsuit in California after three customers claimed to have lost a combined total of $1.8 million through a fake cryptocurrency wallet on the iOS App Store.
Between May and August 2025, the application ran on the App Store as a supposed Sparrow Wallet application. Unwitting users failed to notice the ruse, as Sparrow Wallet is a desktop-only software for Windows, macOS, and Linux.
Users who downloaded it were prompted to type in their seed phrases, which attackers then used to drain funds from their accounts. The three plaintiffs now suing lost $875,000, $840,000, and $120,000 in Bitcoin, respectively. They claim that while Apple markets the App Store as a “safe and trusted” marketplace, it is anything but.
Apple Sued for Fake iOS App Store Wallet
For one, the App Store placed the fake app into its curated cryptocurrency collections, adding validation to its credibility. The Store also neglected to block alternative storefronts, in this case a Sparrow Wallet not from the official developer.
Craig Raw, the official developer of the Sparrow Wallet, testified that he unsuccessfully spent years flagging copycats on the Store. Ironically, Apple threatened to suspend his developer account when he attempted to upload a text-only app to warn iOS users that no mobile version existed.
Apple now faces charges of false advertising and consumer law violations, with the complainants seeking Bitcoin reimbursement and punitive damages. The plaintiffs are also seeking a court order requiring Apple to issue explicit fake app warnings in the store.
Comments
Apple declined to comment on the active litigation. Its representatives, however, said the fraudulent app had been removed and its associated developer accounts terminated. They also reiterated the firm’s 2025 achievements: blocking over $2.2 billion in fake app transactions and shutting down 193,000 malicious developer accounts.
Just three months ago, a similar incident surfaced when a fake version of Ledger Live drained $9.5 million from Mac users.

The daily Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio of Ethereum (ETH) has decisively crossed above its 160-day Simple Moving Average. Known as a Golden Cross, the move signals the end of ETH’s capitulation phase, and the beginning of a bullish reversal.
Source: X
Ethereum Golden Cross and bullish supporters
In the past three years, a Golden Cross preceded major ETH recoveries as the accumulation regime overpowered distribution. This was seen in early 2023, late 2023-Q1 2024, Q2 2024 and Q3 2024 where the price of ETH surged by 50%, 166%, 74% and 113% respectively.
Data also reveals renewed institutional engagements, with the past week marking the third consecutive week of spot Ethereum ETFs inflows. That week brought in $103.9 million, bringing July’s total net inflows to $337.74 million.
In the same week, Bitmine, the largest public Ethereum treasury firm, purchased over 9,900 ETH. This contributed to the coin’s 27% hike in the past month.
Even more, whales have been aggressively accumulating the digital asset since June. Wallets of mid-tier whales (holding 1,000 – 10,000 ETH) increased from 4,750 in June to 4,850 by late July. Wallets of mega-whales (holding over 100,000 ETH) collectively hold 17.41 million ETH (over 22% of the total circulating supply).
Ethereum buy demand has also been outpacing that of Bitcoin in the past month as shown by the rising ETH/BTC ratio below.
Source: Trading View
Additionally, the amount of ETH staked has risen from 63 billion in July 1, to a present 77 billion, indicating positive sentiment in the network.
Key price support and resistance zones
ETH is up 0.85% in the past 24h, wiping out over $100 million in short liquidations and bringing its current price to $1,939.
To maintain the Golden Cross, bulls need to defend the $1,850 – $1,900 demand zone. Further reclamation of prices above the 200-day MA ($2,134) is necessary to confirm a true macro trend reversal. This would also open the way to the $2,300 resistance zone.
Key events that could impact the near-term price of Ethereum include upcoming Fed rates announcement. Others are the tentative Senate floor vote on the CLARITY Act on August 3 and the Middle East conflict.

À peine quelques semaines avant que le Sénat américain n’examine la loi CLARITY, l’industrie de la crypto mène un autre combat. Au lieu de faire du lobbying auprès des législateurs, le Crypto Council for Innovation (CCI) repousse désormais ce qu’il appelle de fausses allégations entourant le projet de loi.
Il a également averti que ces mythes pourraient induire les investisseurs en erreur et ralentir l’une des plus importantes réglementations sur la crypto de l’histoire des États-Unis.
Le Conseil de la Crypto contrecarre les plus grands mythes de la loi CLARITY
À l’approche du vote au Sénat, le CCI a publié une réponse détaillée traitant de ce qu’il estime être les plus grandes idées reçues au sujet de la loi CLARITY.

Le prix de LayerZero a affiché une force considérable ces derniers jours, progressant de plus de 25 % par rapport aux plus bas de juillet. Le prix a grimpé de plus de 10 % au cours des dernières 24 heures, prolongeant sa reprise malgré un regain de pression vendeuse. Dans une mise à jour récente, une adresse liée au Mint MultiSig du protocole a transféré des millions de ZRO vers Binance, réalisant le plus important transfert. D’un autre côté, les produits dérivés laissent penser que le marché a peut-être absorbé la pression vendeuse. Les traders surveillent désormais si l’élan pourra se maintenir et aider le token à valider la cassure.

Un détenteur de XRP a perdu 400 000 jetons en une nuit après avoir succombé à un e-mail d’hameçonnage déguisé en mise à jour « routine » de portefeuille matériel, selon un compte partagé par le conseiller en crypto George Kaltekis.
Un appel de fin de soirée à Pâques
Cet appel paniqué serait arrivé à 22 h le soir de Pâques, après le vol. Kaltekis a indiqué que l’heure à elle seule signalait qu’il y avait un problème, puisque les appels à cette heure-là n’apportent que rarement de bonnes nouvelles.
La victime détenait environ 400 000 XRP sur un portefeuille matériel. Pendant qu’il passait les fêtes en famille, il a reçu un e-mail semblant provenir de Ledger, l’incitant à mettre à jour son appareil. Un e-mail d’hameçonnage déguisé en mise à jour Ledger a poussé la victime à commettre une erreur, et, pensant qu’il s’agissait d’une mise à jour logicielle habituelle, il a cliqué et saisi les informations de son portefeuille.

Le fondateur de Cardano, Charles Hoskinson, a perdu patience lors d’une récente interview accordée à The Block, en repoussant une question après qu’un journaliste lui a demandé de revenir sur l’histoire à l’origine de la fondation d’Ethereum.
« Honte à vous de l’avoir demandé »
Le journaliste avait formulé la question avec soin, demandant à Hoskinson de retracer, avec ses propres mots, l’histoire des origines de la fondation d’Ethereum. Hoskinson n’a pas laissé la question s’installer. « Honte à vous de l’avoir demandé », a-t-il déclaré. « Faites des recherches de base. »
Hoskinson a désormais répondu à la même question sur Ethereum à peu près 400 fois déjà, a-t-il dit, en exprimant sa frustration d’être interrogé à nouveau pour revivre un chapitre vieux de six mois de sa carrière, datant de plus d’une décennie. « Vous avez travaillé dans un endroit il y a 12 ans pendant six mois, et des livres ont été écrits à ce sujet », a-t-il déclaré, décrivant la répétition des questions comme étant paresseuse compte tenu du fait que la période est déjà documentée de manière exhaustive.

Le Bitcoin se négocie à environ 50 % en dessous de son plus haut historique atteint en octobre, et plus de 40 semaines après le début de la baisse actuelle. Quatre indicateurs distincts à long terme convergent, dans une configuration qui a historiquement signalé les étapes ultérieures d’un marché baissier plutôt que ses débuts, selon un analyste.
Un modèle historiquement exact qui approche de son plancher
Le Bitcoin suit actuellement de près la limite inférieure de sa loi de puissance à long terme, un modèle de valorisation qui a maintenu environ 96 % de précision tout au long de l’histoire de l’actif. Le prix n’a pas franchi de façon décisive cette limite, mais il demeure à l’extrémité la plus basse de la fourchette.

La stratégie bitcoin du Salvador entre dans l’une de ses plus grandes épreuves politiques à ce jour. Alors que le Bureau national du Bitcoin continue discrètement d’empiler environ 1 BTC chaque jour, l’opposition du pays a officiellement désigné des candidats pour l’élection présidentielle de février 2027. Soudain, l’avenir de la politique cryptographique du gouvernement devient un sujet de débat politique.
Des chiffres officiels du Bureau du Bitcoin du Salvador indiquent que les avoirs nationaux ont atteint environ 7 725,37 BTC au 27 juillet, contre environ 7 700 BTC le mois précédent. C’est un rappel constant que le plan d’accumulation quotidienne du président Nayib Bukele reste intact, malgré l’évolution de la réglementation.

Le portefeuille de brevets de la blockchain Circle vient de prendre une ampleur considérable, et il ne s’agit pas d’une autre acquisition spectaculaire destinée aux gros titres. Circle Internet Group a annoncé avoir acquis des actifs essentiels du portefeuille de brevets blockchain d’IBM, donnant instantanément à l’entreprise les plus importants avoirs en brevets blockchain aux États-Unis.
L’accord comprend plus de 680 familles de brevets et près de 1 000 brevets délivrés dans le monde, couvrant la technologie blockchain, la banque, les services financiers, l’assurance, l’infrastructure d’entreprise, la vérification de la chaîne d’approvisionnement et des opérations cloud sécurisées.

Le prix d’Ethereum s’emballe au moment où une grande partie du marché des cryptomonnaies reste cantonnée dans une fourchette. Derrière la dernière reprise, les investisseurs institutionnels accumulent régulièrement via des ETF au comptant, tandis qu’une baleine mystérieuse a déployé près de 50 millions de dollars en ETH. Alors que la pression d’achat augmente autour d’un niveau technique clé, Ethereum s’approche d’une cassure qui pourrait redéfinir la structure de son marché à court terme.
Les baleines et les investisseurs des ETF accumulent discrètement de l’ETH
La dernière flambée d’Ethereum semble être soutenue par la conviction institutionnelle plutôt que par des échanges spéculatifs. D’après Lookonchain, trois portefeuilles nouvellement créés, supposés appartenir à la même entité, ont accumulé 25 425 ETH pour une valeur d’environ 50 millions de dollars à un prix moyen proche de 1 968 $. Des achats de cette ampleur indiquent souvent que des investisseurs avertis se positionnent en prévision d’un éventuel renversement de tendance, plutôt que de réagir à l’élan à court terme.

Ethereum, la deuxième plus grande crypto-monnaie, a connu une hausse de 27 % au cours du mois écoulé, après l’augmentation de la demande institutionnelle. BitMine, qui détient 4,8 % de l’ETH total, a ajouté 9 946 ETH à ses avoirs, portant son total à 5,79 millions d’ETH.
Désormais, alors que l’ETH s’approche de 1 980 $, les traders surveillent sa capacité à franchir le seuil clé des 2 156 $, record du mois de juin.
BitMine ajoute 9 946 Ethereum
BitMine, dirigée par le président Tom Lee, a acheté 9 946 ETH supplémentaires au cours de la semaine écoulée, portant ses avoirs totaux à 5 787 414 ETH.
La société détient désormais environ 4,8 % de l’offre en circulation d’Ethereum, ce qui en fait l’un des plus importants paris institutionnels sur l’ETH. BitMine a également mis en jeu (staké) 4 917 189 ETH, soit environ 85 % de l’ensemble de ses avoirs.

Le prix du token natif HYPE d’Hyperliquid tente de reprendre après plusieurs semaines d’action corrective, les haussiers visant une cassure au-dessus de la zone de résistance des 64 $. Le token évolue dans une figure en forme de triangle descendant, un motif souvent associé à des retournements haussiers, car les acheteurs reprennent progressivement le contrôle après le récent repli.
Au-delà du graphique, Hyperliquid présente un tableau contrasté. Si l’Open Interest a grimpé jusqu’à un record de 5,7 milliards de dollars, signe d’une participation croissante aux produits dérivés, les utilisateurs actifs hebdomadaires ont, eux, diminué depuis juin, ce qui suggère un ralentissement de l’activité du réseau. La question clé pour les traders est de savoir si ces signaux contradictoires débouchent sur une cassure durable ou sur un nouveau rejet.

Le XRP Ledger a dépassé 8 millions d’adresses de portefeuille, marquant une nouvelle étape pour le réseau. L’augmentation du nombre de portefeuilles a également modifié la quantité de XRP nécessaire pour se classer parmi les plus gros détenteurs. D’après les dernières données de répartition des portefeuilles XRP, détenir 2 151 XRP suffit désormais pour placer un portefeuille dans le top 10% de tous les détenteurs de XRP.
Liste de richesse XRP : De combien de XRP avez-vous besoin ?
La liste de richesse XRP mise à jour montre les avoirs approximatifs en XRP nécessaires pour atteindre différentes catégories de détenteurs :
Rang des détenteurs XRP XRP requis Pour le top 10% 2 151 XRP Pour le top 5% ~7 500 XRP Pour le top 4% ~10 000 XRP Pour le top 3% ~14 000 XRP Pour le top 1% ~44 000 XRP

Prediction markets have entered a period of accelerated growth, transitioning from niche event-based trading platforms into an increasingly recognized financial market. Between July 2025 and mid-2026, virtually every major industry metric expanded at an unprecedented pace. Monthly trading volumes increased several-fold, cumulative trading activity crossed hundreds of billions of dollars, open interest reached record highs, venture capital investment remained elevated, and market participation increasingly shifted toward sports-related contracts.
The industry is currently dominated by Kalshi and Polymarket, although their operating models differ substantially. Kalshi operates as a regulated exchange under the oversight of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), whereas International primarily operates outside U.S. regulatory jurisdiction through blockchain infrastructure. A newly launched Polymarket US, regulated under the CFTC framework, has begun serving American users but remains significantly smaller than its international counterpart.
The scale of market expansion has prompted several financial institutions to reassess the industry’s long-term potential. Bernstein projects annual prediction market volumes could reach $1 trillion by 2030, implying an approximate 80% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2025. Bank of America similarly describes Kalshi as one of the fastest-growing non-AI companies in the United States, highlighting growth rates that rival those observed within artificial intelligence.
However, rapid expansion has also intensified regulatory scrutiny. Federal regulators, state governments, lawmakers, casino operators, and prediction market platforms remain engaged in an evolving debate over market classification, jurisdiction, insider trading, sports contracts, and consumer protection. As adoption accelerates, the industry’s long-term trajectory will increasingly depend on how regulatory frameworks evolve alongside technological innovation.
1. Market Expansion
The prediction market industry experienced one of the fastest growth periods observed across digital financial markets between mid-2025 and mid-2026.
Monthly trading volumes illustrate the scale of expansion. In July 2025, Kalshi generated approximately $740 million in monthly trading volume, while Polymarket recorded around $1.28 billion. Less than one year later, market activity expanded dramatically.
By June 2026:
PlatformMonthly VolumeKalshi$33 billionPolymarket International$10.7 billionPolymarket US$3.25 billion
Although Polymarket initially dominated the sector, Kalshi experienced substantially faster expansion during 2026, becoming the industry’s largest platform by trading activity.
This growth reflects more than increasing user numbers. Higher trading volumes indicate greater market participation, improved liquidity, broader contract availability, and stronger engagement across multiple event categories.
The cumulative trading figures reinforce this structural trend.
By July 2025:
PlatformCumulative VolumePolymarket$24.5 billionKalshi$5.38 billion
By 2026, cumulative trading volumes had increased substantially:
PlatformCumulative VolumeKalshi$155.37 billionPolymarket$101.23 billionPolymarket US$11.72 billion
These figures indicate that Kalshi not only closed the historical gap with Polymarket but surpassed it by total cumulative trading activity.
Another notable trend is the emergence of Polymarket US. Although significantly smaller than the international platform, its launch demonstrates how regulatory approval can expand access to U.S. users while creating a separate liquidity pool operating under federal oversight.
2. Market Leadership Has Shifted
Trading volumes alone do not fully illustrate competitive positioning. Market share data demonstrates how rapidly leadership has shifted during the past year.
During July 2025, Kalshi accounted for approximately 36.73% of prediction market trading activity, while the remainder belonged almost entirely to Polymarket.
By 2026, the competitive landscape share among these top two had changed considerably.
PlatformMarket ShareKalshi74.30%Polymarket16.03%Polymarket US9.67%
Kalshi’s market share more than doubled within a year, reflecting significantly faster growth than competing platforms.
Several structural differences distinguish the two ecosystems.
Kalshi operates entirely within the United States under CFTC oversight. Account registration requires identity verification, and trading occurs through a regulated centralized infrastructure similar to traditional financial exchanges.
However, Polymarket follows a different model. Its international platform operates through crypto wallets, primarily on Polygon, allowing users worldwide to participate without conventional brokerage accounts. While Americans can technically access the international platform using VPN services, the company formally restricts U.S. participation.
The introduction of Polymarket US reflects a strategic move toward regulatory compliance while maintaining the international platform separately. These different operating structures continue shaping user adoption, liquidity distribution, and regulatory exposure.
3. Liquidity Continues Strengthening
Open interest provides another important measure of market maturity. Unlike trading volume, which measures executed transactions, open interest reflects capital that remains committed to unresolved contracts.
Higher open interest generally indicates stronger market confidence, deeper liquidity, and greater participant engagement.
During July 2025:
PlatformDaily Open InterestPolymarket$121 millionKalshi$71 million
By 2026, open interest expanded significantly.
Peak levels reached:
PlatformPeak Open InterestKalshi$1.41 billionPolymarketAround $600 millionPolymarket USAround $150 million
Kalshi’s open interest increased nearly twenty-fold compared with mid-2025, substantially outpacing growth across competing platforms.
This suggests that market expansion has not been driven solely by short-term speculative trading. Instead, larger amounts of capital are remaining active within unresolved prediction contracts, reflecting broader participation and improving market depth.
4. Sports Now Dominate Activity
One of the most significant behavioral changes across prediction markets has been the concentration of trading around sports contracts. Kalshi’s category distribution illustrates this trend clearly.
In July 2025, sports-related contracts represented approximately 63% of daily trading volume. By 2026, sports accounted for roughly 84%, while crypto remained the second-largest category.
Looking at Polymarket, it also followed a similar trajectory but numbers are just different.
During July 2025:
Sports represented 22% of trading activity.
Crypto accounted for approximately 20%.
By 2026:
Sports expanded to 81% of daily trading volume.
Crypto declined to approximately 9%, remaining the second-largest category.
The data suggests that prediction markets are becoming increasingly diversified beyond cryptocurrency-focused speculation.
Sports contracts now serve as the primary driver of trading activity across both leading platforms, broadening user participation beyond traditional crypto-native audiences.
5. Capital Is Scaling
The rapid expansion in trading activity has been accompanied by significant increases in capital committed to the prediction market ecosystem. Weekly notional trading volume and venture funding demonstrate that market growth extends beyond user participation and reflects broader investor confidence in the sector’s long-term potential.
Weekly prediction market notional volume has increased sharply within a year.
PeriodWeekly Notional VolumeJuly 2025$531 million2026$15.89 billion
The increase represents one of the strongest year-over-year expansions across digital financial platforms. Rising notional volume indicates larger transaction sizes, improved market liquidity, and higher levels of capital flowing through prediction markets.
The growth is also reflected in venture capital investment.
YearVenture Funding2024$146.75 million2025$3.70 billionJuly 2026$1.97 billion
Funding activity accelerated dramatically between 2024 and 2025 as institutional investors increased exposure to prediction market infrastructure. Although funding through July 2026 remains below the full-year 2025 figure, investment levels remain substantially above historical norms, suggesting continued confidence in the industry’s long-term expansion.
The combination of record trading volumes, growing open interest, and sustained venture investment indicates that growth is occurring simultaneously across both market participation and infrastructure development.
6. Why Analysts See a $1 Trillion Market
The industry’s rapid expansion has led several research firms to reassess the long-term size of prediction markets.
Bernstein projects that annual prediction market trading volume could reach $240 billion during 2026, representing approximately 370% growth compared with the previous year.
Looking further ahead, Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani estimates that maintaining an approximate 80% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2025 and 2030 could increase annual prediction market trading volume to nearly $1 trillion by the beginning of the next decade.
Bernstein attributes this outlook to several structural drivers rather than a single catalyst.
Key factors include:
Greater regulatory clarity at the federal level.
Increasing blockchain tokenization.
Deeper cryptocurrency integration.
Expanding market liquidity.
Diversification of event contracts beyond politics and crypto.
Bank of America also highlights the industry’s pace of expansion. Analyst Julie Hoover described Kalshi as one of the fastest-growing non-AI companies in the United States, noting that its growth rates rival those seen within the artificial intelligence sector.
The competitive landscape is also expected to broaden. While Kalshi and Polymarket currently dominate market activity, additional participants are entering the sector.
According to Bernstein and Bank of America, companies have either launched or are developing dedicated prediction market offerings.
This suggests the industry is entering a new phase where growth is no longer limited to two primary operators but is attracting established financial and gaming platforms.
7. Retail Users Are Driving Adoption
A notable characteristic of current prediction market growth is that it is primarily being driven by retail participants rather than institutional traders.
According to WalletConnect, approximately 82% of Polymarket users traded less than $10,000 during the first quarter of 2026. Where, average transaction sizes were approximately $35 per trade.
These figures suggest that market expansion is being supported by a broad base of individual participants rather than a relatively small number of high-value institutional accounts.
Users are increasingly participating across several categories, including:
Sports.
Politics.
Crypto prices.
Macroeconomic events.
However, the trading experience extends beyond placing a prediction.
WalletConnect identifies four operational stages that directly affect user retention and platform efficiency:
Wallet connection.
Account funding.
Settlement and payouts.
Compliance and identity verification.
Failure at any stage introduces friction that may discourage continued participation.
As transaction volumes continue expanding, infrastructure quality increasingly becomes a competitive differentiator alongside contract availability.
8. Blockchain Infrastructure Matters
The rapid growth of on-chain prediction markets has fundamentally changed how contracts are created, traded, settled, and verified.
Unlike traditional betting systems that rely on centralized operators, blockchain-based prediction markets automate much of the contract lifecycle through smart contracts.
According to Arkham Intelligence, several core technologies underpin modern prediction market infrastructure.
Peer-to-peer settlement
Funds transfer directly between market participants without requiring a central custodian to hold customer balances throughout the contract lifecycle.
Smart contracts
Contract creation, execution, settlement, and payouts are governed automatically through blockchain code rather than manual intervention.
This reduces operational discretion while improving settlement transparency.
Oracles
Prediction markets must connect blockchain contracts with real-world outcomes.
Polymarket relies on UMA’s Optimistic Oracle.
Market outcomes can be challenged before final settlement, with UMA token holders ultimately determining disputed resolutions.
Although decentralized, this mechanism introduces governance risk because large token holders may influence disputed outcomes.
Central Limit Order Books (CLOBs)
Rather than maintaining a fully on-chain order book, Polymarket uses an off-chain matching engine with on-chain settlement.
This hybrid structure lowers transaction costs while maintaining blockchain settlement.
Kalshi follows a similar order-matching model using conventional centralized financial infrastructure.
Fully Collateralized Contracts
Polymarket requires contracts to be fully collateralized using USDC.
Every YES and NO position is backed by deposited collateral, eliminating counterparty credit risk and avoiding leverage-based liquidation scenarios.
Kalshi achieves similar economic protection through CFTC-regulated margin and clearing requirements.
Arkham also highlights that prediction markets generate transparent on-chain data, enabling advanced trader analytics including:
Profit and Loss (PnL).
Return on Investment (ROI).
Win rates.
Trading volume.
Largest profitable trades.
Active positions.
Trader Elo ratings based on prediction accuracy.
Because blockchain transactions remain publicly verifiable, market participants can evaluate trading behavior in considerably greater detail than traditional betting platforms.
9. Regulation Becomes the Defining Variable
While prediction markets have experienced exceptional growth throughout 2026, regulation has emerged as the industry’s most significant variable. The debate is no longer centered on whether prediction markets can attract users or liquidity, but on how they should be classified, who should regulate them, and which contracts should remain permissible.
A key distinction exists between the industry’s two largest platforms.
Kalshi operates as a federally regulated Designated Contract Market (DCM) under the supervision of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Polymarket International primarily operates through blockchain infrastructure outside CFTC jurisdiction and formally restricts U.S. participation.
Polymarket US, launched under a regulated framework, serves American users but remains substantially smaller than the international platform.
This regulatory divide has become one of the primary competitive differences between the two ecosystems.
Federal regulators maintain that prediction market contracts are financial derivatives regulated under the CFTC rather than conventional gambling products. Several state governments, however, argue that contracts involving elections and sports function similarly to betting markets and therefore fall within state gambling laws.
This disagreement has resulted in an ongoing legal dispute between federal regulators and individual states over regulatory authority.
10. States Push Back
The rapid expansion of prediction markets has prompted legislative and regulatory responses across the United States.
According to Pew Research Center’s analysis of National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL) data:
23 states prohibit election betting entirely.
9 additional states impose partial restrictions depending on circumstances.
Only 18 states and the District of Columbia have no laws specifically addressing election betting.
Several states have also initiated direct legal action or introduced legislation specifically targeting prediction markets.
Notable developments include:
Minnesota became the first state to prohibit Kalshi, Polymarket, and similar platforms statewide, while allowing limited exemptions for weather-related and insurance-style contracts.
Kentucky enacted legislation banning election betting while also imposing taxes on prediction market operators.
Tennessee introduced legislation making it a felony to influence an event after placing a related prediction market trade.
At least:
16 states introduced prediction market legislation during 2026.
12 states still have bills pending.
4 states have seen proposed legislation fail.
Meanwhile, the CFTC has challenged several state actions in court, arguing that prediction markets fall under exclusive federal jurisdiction.
The result is an increasingly fragmented regulatory environment where market expansion continues alongside ongoing legal uncertainty.
11. Insider Trading Remains a Major Concern
As trading volumes have expanded into hundreds of billions of dollars, concerns surrounding insider trading have received increasing attention from lawmakers and regulators. Several high-profile incidents during 2026 intensified scrutiny.
According to , investigations were launched following trades reportedly placed before U.S. military actions involving Venezuela and Iran.
Additional scrutiny followed:
Trading reportedly linked to inside political information.
Investigation involving a former presidential teleprompter operator accused of using material non-public information while trading on Kalshi.
House Oversight Committee inquiries into prediction market compliance procedures.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket state that they have implemented measures designed to detect and prevent insider trading.
However, lawmakers continue evaluating whether existing safeguards remain adequate as user participation expands. These concerns extend beyond financial integrity.
That said, Prediction markets increasingly cover elections, geopolitical developments, sporting events, and government decisions turning these areas where privileged information can materially influence contract outcomes before becoming publicly available.
As market participation grows, surveillance and compliance are likely to become increasingly important alongside trading infrastructure.
12. Lobbying Intensifies
Regulatory uncertainty has triggered an equally significant lobbying effort.
Prediction market operators and the traditional casino industry are both increasing political engagement in an effort to influence future regulation.
According to CNBC post:
Kalshi
$990,000 in direct lobbying during the first half of 2026.
Nearly $1.8 million including external lobbying firms.
Already exceeds its total lobbying expenditure for all of 2025.
American Gaming Association
$1.39 million in direct lobbying during the first half of 2026.
Nearly $1.8 million including outside firms.
Polymarket
Approximately $180,000 spent through its lobbying firm during the first half of 2026.
The debate extends beyond market competition. As Casino operators argue that sports-related event contracts closely resemble traditional sports betting and should therefore remain regulated by individual states.
Prediction market platforms counter that event contracts are financial derivatives comparable to commodity swaps and should remain under CFTC supervision.
This distinction is likely to shape future market expansion more than any technological development.
13. Policy Challenges
Policy researchers argue that the industry’s growth has outpaced existing regulatory frameworks.
According to the American Institute for Boys and Men (AIBM), lawmakers must address several structural issues as prediction markets continue expanding.
These include:
Clarifying CFTC authority.
Defining which contracts are susceptible to manipulation.
Improving responses to suspicious market activity.
Regulating marketing practices.
Developing responsible trading tools.
Determining how prediction markets coexist alongside traditional gambling industries.
The report argues that future regulation should move beyond restricting individual contracts and instead establish broader market protections capable of adapting as crypto infrastructure becomes increasingly integrated with prediction markets.
Final Assessment
The data presented across market activity, liquidity, funding, user adoption, infrastructure, and industry forecasts indicates that prediction markets have entered a period of structural expansion rather than temporary speculative growth.
Between July 2025 and mid-2026:
Monthly trading volumes expanded from billions to tens of billions of dollars.
Weekly notional volume increased from $531 million to $15.89 billion.
Cumulative platform volume surpassed $268 billion across Kalshi and both Polymarket platforms.
Peak open interest exceeded $1.4 billion.
Venture investment remained elevated after a record-setting 2025.
Retail participation became the primary growth engine, with most users trading relatively small amounts while collectively driving substantial market activity.
Sports emerged as the dominant contract category across both leading platforms.
The industry’s technological foundation has also matured. Blockchain settlement, smart contracts, oracle-based resolution, fully collateralized trading, and transparent on-chain analytics have created infrastructure capable of supporting significantly larger trading volumes than earlier prediction market models.
At the same time, regulation remains the principal uncertainty.
Federal regulators continue asserting authority over prediction markets, while numerous states seek greater oversight of election and sports-related contracts. Investigations into insider trading, proposed legislation, and expanding lobbying efforts demonstrate that policy development is progressing alongside market growth.
Despite these uncertainties, the available evidence explains why Bernstein projects annual prediction market volume could approach $1 trillion by 2030. The forecast is not based on a single catalyst but on the convergence of sustained trading growth, increasing liquidity, expanding retail participation, continued venture investment, improving blockchain infrastructure, broader product offerings, and expectations of greater regulatory clarity.
Whether that projection is ultimately achieved will depend less on demand (which current data shows is already expanding rapidly) and more on the industry’s ability to navigate the evolving legal and regulatory landscape while maintaining market integrity, operational transparency, and investor confidence.

Flare Networks se prépare à sa plus grande expansion XRPFi, les premières mises à niveau étant attendues dans les semaines à venir. Le PDG Hugo Philion affirme que les six prochains mois pourraient changer la façon dont le XRP est utilisé dans la DeFi, en faisant potentiellement entrer jusqu’à 5 milliards de XRP dans l’écosystème.
Ce mouvement intervient alors que le prix du XRP peine à retrouver une dynamique de cours solide après avoir chuté de 72 % par rapport à son pic.
Flare prévoit une grande expansion de l’XRPFi
Le PDG de Flare, Hugo Philion, a annoncé que le réseau entamait une phase d’intégration de six mois axée sur l’introduction de davantage de XRP dans la finance programmable. Il a déclaré,

Le prix de l’ONDO a surperformé une grande partie du marché crypto lundi, grimpant d’environ 7% alors que le bitcoin et d’autres grandes cryptomonnaies évoluaient dans une fourchette relativement étroite. La hausse reflète bien plus que l’amélioration du sentiment de marché. Les investisseurs se positionnent de plus en plus autour du récit des actifs du monde réel (RWA), dans lequel Ondo Finance continue de s’imposer comme l’un des principaux fournisseurs d’infrastructures institutionnelles du secteur.
L’adoption institutionnelle donne un nouvel élan à l’ONDO
Le principal catalyseur derrière la hausse d’aujourd’hui semble être la dernière mise à jour d’Ondo Finance, qui met en avant l’adoption accélérée de la finance tokenisée. D’après le protocole, le nombre de détenteurs d’actifs tokenisés a dépassé le million, tandis que la valeur totale des actifs du monde réel tokenisés on-chain a atteint environ 36,6 milliards de dollars, soulignant l’expansion rapide des produits financiers basés sur la blockchain.

Bitcoin, la pionnière des cryptomonnaies, est repassée au-dessus de 65 000 $ après deux jours sans frappes militaires entre les États-Unis et l’Iran. Cette pause a fait baisser les prix du pétrole de 6 % et a atténué les craintes d’inflation.
Ce mouvement intervient juste avant la réunion du FOMC du 29 juillet, alors que les traders s’attendent à ce que la Réserve fédérale maintienne les taux d’intérêt inchangés.
La pause États-Unis-Iran redonne un coup de pouce à Bitcoin
Bitcoin a progressé de 1,26 % à 65 169 $ au cours des dernières 24 heures, suivant de près une hausse de 1,41 % de la capitalisation totale du marché des cryptomonnaies.
Le dernier mouvement est intervenu après que les États-Unis ont temporairement suspendu leur campagne de bombardements afin de permettre des pourparlers diplomatiques avec l’Iran. L’Iran a également indiqué qu’il ferait une pause dans ses attaques de représailles tant que les États-Unis feraient de même.

Le prix de XRP a largement évolué de manière stable autour du niveau de 1,10 $ pendant que des capitaux affluaient vers les memecoins, surpassant le marché crypto au sens large. Malgré une action des prix plutôt discrète, XRP a discrètement construit une structure de plus bas relevé au cours du dernier mois. La hausse de l’open interest et des taux de financement positifs indiquent que les traders continuent de se positionner en vue d’un éventuel franchissement.
Le token s’échange désormais juste sous une zone de résistance clé près de 1,16 $, ce qui rend les prochaines séances cruciales. Un mouvement décisif au-dessus de ce niveau pourrait ouvrir la voie à une nouvelle tentative visant 1,25 $. Un nouveau rejet pourrait toutefois maintenir XRP cantonné dans sa fourchette de consolidation actuelle.