ryan.gem

7.97M $BTC (39.7% of supply) hasn't moved since 2022 or earlier.

That's nearly 40% of all Bitcoin sitting untouched through the entire bear market, ETF launches, and current cycle.

Meanwhile, 12.12M $BTC (60.3%) has changed hands in the last 4 years.

The diamond hands are real. Supply shock mechanics still in play.

$BTC sitting at $85,516 right now.

4 years ago? $19,532. Scale that growth trajectory and we'd be at $96,636 today.

8 years ago? $6,578. Same math? $588,955.

We're not even close to the 8-year pace. Still early or losing steam? That's the question.

Price action lagging historical cycles. Either accumulation phase or the supercycle narrative is cooked. Watch liquidity and macro closely.

Paramount should move to Miami, not Austin.

Miami is becoming the next Hollywood. The city has the infrastructure, the talent pool, and the cultural momentum that Austin lacks.

Austin had its moment, but Miami's got the real energy now—crypto hubs, global capital, and a scene that actually matters for entertainment and tech convergence.

If you're building for the next decade, you go where the action is. That's Miami.

Cairo getting wiped off the map and people still pretending this isn't cultural genocide. The evidence is right there. Wake up.

$BTC sitting at $85,480 — 5% below the 100-week MA ($89,805). Price/100W MA ratio: 0.95

Historically, dips below this level = macro accumulation zone. Not financial advice, but this is where the smart money loads up.

Watch for reclaim above $89.8k for confirmation of next leg up.

Mean $BTC transaction fees dropped to $0.30 (355 sats) on 10/06/2026

Network activity cooling off or just a temporary lull? Either way, cheap fees = good time to consolidate UTXOs if you've been sitting on dust

AI has a $4.2 trillion problem.

Next 5 years will decide if this boom is real or the biggest bubble in history.

Massive bets on AI infrastructure, data centers, chips. But here's the catch: AI needs to generate actual revenue and productivity gains to justify these insane capex numbers.

If AI doesn't deliver? Expect brutal repricing across equities, bonds, and yields. The ripple effects will hit everything.

We're either building the future or funding the mother of all bubbles. Time will tell.

Market psychology just flipped.

Went from "down 50% from ATH, should I panic sell?" to "down 50% from ATH, time to load bags?"

This shift = classic bull market signal. When fear turns to greed at the dip, you know we're early in the next leg up.

Same pattern every cycle. Most will still hesitate. Smart money is already positioning.

0% crypto tax isn't a myth – it's real if you know where to look 👀

UAE, Singapore, Germany, Portugal... some jurisdictions let you keep 100% of your gains depending on:
• Residency status
• Holding period
• How your gains are classified (trading vs holding)

11 countries exist where you can legally pay ZERO on crypto profits under the right conditions.

If you're sitting on life-changing gains, understanding tax optimization isn't optional – it's survival.

Do your own research or get wrecked by your local tax authority later.

Price history on log scale hitting different rn

The macro curve stays undefeated. Every time $BTC dips below the long-term log trend, it's been a generational buy.

Zoom out or stay poor 📊

Market Pulse #35 just dropped.

$BTC broke a 13-year pattern: first time ever a green August → green September → entire Q3 green across all three months. Closed the week at highest level since January but got rejected twice below YTD open.

Derivatives shifted hard: leverage piling into $BTC longs while $ETH shorts are stacking up. Are we heading to $90k or getting a correction first?

Macro's messy: US added only 29k jobs in September. Fed rate hike odds for October collapsed.

Equities hit ATH but bonds are screaming danger — 10Y yield above 5.30%. I break down who's right and why I'm not buying the recession narrative.

Positions update: closed 75% of my oil short on profit, rest still green. Entered long $NKE post-earnings, sitting in profit with stop at breakeven.

FREE edition includes:
• Full $NKE earnings breakdown + why I entered
• Historical data: how markets performed every US midterm election year
• $BTC & $ETH funding + open interest explained simply
• Oil, G7 reserves, and Trump's Iran play
• Anthropic IPO calendar and why it matters for the entire market
• My Q4 calendar + the month I see as a bull trap

Full playbook, $NKE entry levels, and new portfolio hold on Patreon.

Also running a solid deal with Breakout: funded accounts from $5k to $200k. Pass eval, follow rules, trade without risking your own capital. 60+ crypto pairs, indices, commodities. Single-phase eval, static drawdown, up to 10x leverage.

Discount link in comments or at end of post.

Much love

$BTC at $86,080 on Oct 6, 2026.

Log-linear chart holding structure. Price action still respecting macro uptrend channels.

If you're not watching these levels, you're flying blind. Simple as that.

Net capital inflows into $BTC by year:

2026: -$40B outflow projected

This is realized cap data showing actual capital movement, not just price action. If we're looking at negative flows for 2026, either:

• Macro liquidity tightening hard
• Profit-taking cycle peaks
• Risk-off rotation into other assets

RealizedCap tracks what investors actually paid, so negative inflows = more capital leaving than entering. Watch this metric closely as it often leads price moves by weeks.

$BTC sitting at $85,577 right now

7-day range: $82,869 → $87,219

That's a ~$4.3k range. Choppy but holding structure above $82k support. If we reclaim $87k with volume, next leg could be clean. Below $82.8k? Watch for liquidity sweep into $80k zone.

Not financial advice but the range is tightening 👀

Et les gens se demandent encore pourquoi les dégénérés de la crypto se ruent sur les contrats perpétuels TradFi.

La réponse est évidente : une meilleure liquidité, des spreads plus serrés et beaucoup moins de slippage que sur la plupart des contrats perpétuels des CEX. Sans compter l’absence de risques de rug pull imprévisibles liés aux exchanges douteux.

Les plateformes natives de la crypto ne peuvent toujours pas rivaliser en matière de qualité d’exécution pour les gros volumes. Tant que les contrats perpétuels on-chain n’égaleront pas l’infrastructure TradFi, cette tendance ne s’inversera pas.

US just embedded 2 senior officials directly into Taiwan's military HQ.

Not advisors. Not observers. Embedded.

They're running war games + procurement policy from the inside now.

This is a massive escalation in US-Taiwan military integration. Markets sleeping on geopolitical tail risk but this is not normal peacetime protocol.

Watch $BTC and risk-off assets if tensions spike. Defense stocks already pricing this in quietly.

$BTC 4-year ROI check:

Oct 2022: $20,162
Oct 2026: $85,991

That's 327% return 📈

Anyone who bought the FTX collapse bottom and held through the cycle is up 4.3x. This is why you stack during bear market blood and ignore the noise.

Time in > timing.

Sats per dollar hitting 1,165 on Oct 5, 2026

$BTC at $85,772

For context: Lower sats/USD = stronger $BTC. We're watching this metric as a long-term accumulation gauge. If you're stacking, every dollar buys fewer sats as price climbs.

Track your cost basis in sats, not just fiat. #SatsPerDollar

MVRV sitting at 1.59 🟡

Not overheated, not bottomed. Mid-range vibes.

$BTC holders still slightly profitable on average but we're nowhere near euphoria territory (2.5+) or capitulation (<1.0).

This is the zone where smart money accumulates and retail waits for "confirmation."

Most retail traders think crypto TDS kicks in at ₹10,000 and relax once they're under that.

Wrong.

For most of you, the real threshold is ₹50,000 — and it's cumulative across the entire year.

Every trade. Every swap. Every withdrawal.

Lose track of that running total and the tax notice won't care what number you thought applied.

Track your volume or get rekt by paperwork later. 📊