tehameeyunX

The part that caught my attention today isn’t just Bitcoin reclaiming $77K
It’s the fact that traditional markets and crypto are suddenly moving toward the same idea: putting more financial assets onchain.
U.S. stocks opened sharply higher on Thursday as oil prices cooled and Treasury yields pulled back. The S&P 500 rose about 1%, while the Nasdaq gained more than 1.5% early in the session.
But the bigger story for me is what happened underneath that move.
THE SEC JUST OPENED A NEW DOOR
The SEC introduced a five-year Innovation Exemption that allows eligible venues to facilitate trading of tokenized U.S. stocks onchain.
This is not synthetic stock exposure. Under the framework, eligible tokenized stocks must provide holders the same rights and privileges as the underlying securities, including dividends and voting rights. Issuers also get the opportunity to object to their stocks being listed.
That distinction matters.
For years, crypto has been trying to convince traditional finance that blockchain is more than a place to trade tokens.
Now the SEC is effectively giving the market room to test whether stocks themselves can move through blockchain infrastructure.
And suddenly the pitch becomes very different.
24/7 markets. Onchain settlement. Fractional ownership. Self-custody. Programmable liquidity.
That is a much bigger story than another crypto bill.
BITCOIN IS RESPONDING
Bitcoin had just been rejected below $77K, then reclaimed the level as risk sentiment improved. Ethereum also pushed back above $2,450.
I’m not reading that as a confirmed breakout yet.
The Fed just raised rates by 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00%, its first hike in more than three years, and 16 of 18 policymakers now see at least one more hike by the end of 2026.
That is still a serious macro headwind.
But Bitcoin holding the $75K-$77K zone through the CLARITY setback, the Fed hike and a very uncomfortable macro backdrop tells me something.
The market is absorbing bad news better than I expected.
And now we have the SEC pushing tokenization forward even after Congress failed to advance the CLARITY Act.
That is the part I don’t want to overlook.
Maybe the next phase of crypto adoption doesn’t start with another memecoin.
Maybe it starts when the biggest financial market in the world slowly starts moving onto the same rails crypto has been building for years.
#BitcoinSurpasses$77000

Reflecting on Past Calls
I’ve spent years studying Bitcoin cycles, and one thing I’ve learned is that markets move in patterns far more often than people think.
Back in late 2022, when fear was everywhere after the FTX collapse, I was looking for a cycle bottom while most people were calling for even lower prices. Bitcoin eventually bottomed around $15,500, almost exactly where I expected the panic to end. Three years later, the same cycle pushed Bitcoin all the way to roughly $126,000.
That move from $15K to $126K reinforced something I’ve believed for a long time: Bitcoin doesn’t move in a straight line. It moves through cycles of greed, fear, euphoria, and capitulation. Most investors focus on the daily noise. I focus on where we are in the bigger picture.
I’m not claiming to predict every candle. Nobody can. But understanding liquidity, sentiment, market structure, and investor psychology has helped me identify major turning points before they became obvious to everyone else.
And right now, I believe we’re approaching another one.
Where We Are in the Cycle
Despite what many people are saying, I don’t think the four-year cycle is dead.
Bitcoin lost its one-year moving average after peaking around $126,000, which has historically been one of the clearest signs that a bear market is underway. Similar breaks have happened in previous cycles, and they usually mark the beginning of a long reset rather than the end of one.
What’s interesting is that several cycle models still suggest the final bottom has not formed yet. Some analysts expect the next major bull phase to begin in late 2026, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the lowest price is already in.
On-chain data tells a similar story
Metrics like the MVRV Z-Score, which helps identify when Bitcoin becomes deeply undervalued, have not yet reached the levels seen at previous cycle bottoms. Momentum indicators such as the monthly RSI are also approaching oversold territory but haven’t fully entered the zone that typically marks maximum pain.
To me, that suggests one thing:
The market may be close to a bottom, but it probably hasn’t experienced true capitulation yet.
Relief Rally Before Capitulation?
My roadmap remains relatively simple:
$59K → $61K → $65K → $55K → $47K → $200K
So far, the first part of that roadmap has played out as expected.
Bitcoin bounced from the low-$59K region and is now pushing into the mid-$60Ks. That’s exactly what I would expect during the later stages of a bear market. Relief rallies are normal. In fact, they’re designed to convince people the worst is over.
Technically, the $64K-$65K area is an important zone. Multiple analysts have highlighted it as a major support and reaction level. As long as buyers defend that area, Bitcoin can continue grinding higher in the short term.
But I don’t think a relief rally automatically means a new bull market has started.
The bigger question is what happens after the bounce.
If Bitcoin loses the $60K region again, the next meaningful support sits much lower. That’s where the $55K and eventually $47K levels come into play.
A move into that area would likely be accompanied by liquidations, forced selling, extreme fear, and the kind of headlines that make people swear they’re done with crypto forever.
Ironically, that’s usually where the best opportunities appear.
#BitcoinEndsSevenDayLossStreakAbove$63K