RICARDO _PAUL

My weekly Bitcoin update is coming a little later than usual this time, unfortunately because I’ve been ill. At the moment, I still do not see a clean entry signal. Because of that, I am only trading BTC short-term with much smaller position sizes. My long-term Bitcoin holdings remain unchanged.

1. WHAT I SEE ON THE CHART

For the first time since October 2025, Bitcoin closed last week above an important level: the March 2024 high at around $73,835. This level had been lost earlier this year. Now, the price is pulling back and testing that area from above.

This is the point where the market has to prove whether the comeback is real.

There are three reasons why I remain cautious.

First, the recent green weekly candles came with noticeably low trading volume. Strong upside moves are usually supported by strong volume. That is not what we are seeing here.

Second, sellers in the futures market have now been continuously paying buyers for around 47 days. This is one of the longest phases of its kind ever. When price rises after a setup like that, the move can be driven by short sellers being forced to close losing positions, rather than by strong new demand entering the market.

Third, the medium-term weekly average, the EMA150 shown in blue on the chart, is running directly through the same zone Bitcoin is currently testing. If that area holds, it supports the case for another move higher. If it fails, an important layer of support is missing, and Bitcoin could continue moving sideways inside the broader range.

2. WHAT SUPPORTS BITCOIN

There are still strong supportive factors in the background.

Over the past four weeks, US Bitcoin funds recorded around $2.4 billion in inflows. That is significantly more than miners were able to produce during the same period.

BlackRock’s Bitcoin fund now holds more than 800,000 BTC, which is almost 4 percent of all coins ever mined.

According to VanEck, long-term holders have started buying again after an extended selling phase.

Strategy also bought another 34,000+ Bitcoin on April 20.

3. WHAT WEIGHS ON BITCOIN

The macro picture remains difficult.

The Iran war is still ongoing, and the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked. OPEC is going through one of its most difficult phases in years, with the UAE just announcing its withdrawal.

Brent crude is now 44 percent above pre-war levels.

US inflation is at 3.3 percent, the highest level since May 2024.

The IMF and ECB are both openly warning about stagflation: high inflation combined with weak economic growth.

Today, the third US Federal Reserve meeting of the year begins. I am watching that closely.

In this kind of environment, I still mainly view Bitcoin as a risky asset. I remain skeptical of the common “Bitcoin protects against inflation” narrative. In real crises over the past few years, Bitcoin usually fell first together with stocks. It did not behave like gold.

That was different in 2026, but in my view, for other reasons. Bitcoin has been more resilient in this cycle than in previous crisis periods, probably because of ETF structures and institutional buyers. At the same time, gold was sold off more aggressively in March instead of rising.

Right now, too many things seem to be changing at once. On the surface, markets show a lot of confidence. But when you look closer, there is also a lot of uncertainty.

That combination makes me more cautious and more skeptical.

4. THREE POSSIBLE PATHS

A) Sideways phase

This is currently the most likely scenario for me.

Bitcoin continues to move between roughly $67,000 and $80,000 until a clear trigger forces direction.

There is also a variation of this scenario: BTC slowly moves up into the resistance zone between $94,000 and $100,000, then corrects sharply once again.

B) Upside move

The current support area holds, and fund inflows continue to dominate.

However, for me, a real trend change only begins much higher, around $90,000 to $100,000. That is where the major downtrend line is located.

C) Further downside

If Bitcoin breaks lower, I see three staged zones.

The first catch zone is around $67,000 to $68,000. That is where the long-term weekly average, the EMA200 shown in orange on the chart, meets the lower edge of the range.

If that level also breaks, the next zone would be $53,000 to $57,000, which would be a typical correction area.

A real bear-market scenario only becomes relevant for me if that zone breaks as well. In that case, I would see the $40,000 area as a possible target.

That round number often acts like a magnet. Many people are likely waiting there with buy orders because they do not want to miss the bottom. That is exactly why the market may test it, and possibly even briefly move below it.

Which path plays out will probably depend less on the chart and on traders, and more on the macro environment: the Fed, Iran, and inflation.

Large institutional players now influence the market much more than they used to.

5. WHAT I AM DOING

My long-term Bitcoin holdings and my DCA savings plan remain unchanged. That part is for wealth building, not trading.

For short-term trades, I am currently using significantly smaller position sizes and staying very careful.

My rule set is not giving me a clean entry signal. In sideways phases, especially with an unclear macro backdrop, the risk-reward ratio for my timeframes is simply not attractive enough.

I am waiting for one of three things:

A stable defense of the current zone with stronger volume, a clear break to the downside, or more clarity from the macro picture.

Right now, patience costs little.

Haste, on the other hand, can cost a lot.

DISCLOSURE

Private individual / private trader
Own positions: Bitcoin as long-term holding + DCA unchanged, and currently sharply reduced short-term trading positions.

This is my personal market update. No investment advice. No call to action.

Sources: TradingView, SoSoValue, Farside Investors, CoinGlass, VanEck, Reuters

#BTC #bitcoin #MarketAnalysis #ckswing #RiskManagement