Macro trader plur daddy (@plur_daddy) says bitcoin’s 2026 setup is less about a crypto-specific catalyst and more about whether US liquidity conditions return to normal after an unusually tight stretch for risk assets. His thesis: recent market stress wasn’t primarily a crypto story but a plumbing one. As leverage in the economy grew faster than the Fed’s balance sheet, bank reserves became scarce and repo “plumbing” got strained. That shortage showed up as choppy, rotational equity action and “a quite adverse environment for crypto.” Heading into the new year he expects incremental shifts that could move conditions from tight back toward neutral — enough to help risk assets, including BTC, even if it won’t create a new “loose” monetary regime. Four macro themes to watch (and why they matter for bitcoin) 1) Fed reserve management purchases (RMPs) - The Fed announced $40bn/month in RMPs for three months (with a smaller, undefined pace thereafter). Plur daddy notes the Fed already bought about $38bn of the first month’s allocation. - Purpose: relieve funding pressure and “unblock a clogged pipe” in financial plumbing — not quantitative easing designed to spark a risk-on melt-up. - Impact sizing is imprecise but meaningful: he estimates the liquidity shortfall is roughly $100–200bn, so one month of RMPs won’t fix everything but should materially ease strain. 2) Fiscal incrementality - He expects a modest re-widening of the deficit — roughly $12–15bn/month starting Jan. 1 from OBBBA-related effects — and calls the environment one of “fiscal dominance.” - Plur daddy argues recent market softness partly reflected deficit contraction (he attributes some of that to tariff-driven effects), so even a small incremental increase in fiscal impulse matters vs. November/December levels. - He also flags an eSLR change effective Jan. 1 for early adopters as a smaller tailwind, with broader banking deregulation “on deck for 2026.” 3) Disinflation and the policy path - Market-based inflation expectations have fallen (he cites the one-year inflation swap), producing what he calls a “goldilocks setup”: the economy is weak but not collapsing, and softer inflation gives the Fed cover to cut rates. - Market pricing is conservative — only a 13% chance of a January cut and about two cuts priced in for the year — but his baseline is closer to four cuts if policy follows orthodox channels, with the potential for more cuts under a Trump presidency. 4) Politics and the Fed chair - The Fed chair nomination could be a market-moving political variable. Plur daddy expects Trump to prioritize loyalty and believes Kevin Hassett is “very likely” as Fed Chair in that scenario. - Market sensitivities: gold would likely benefit from such a nomination; equities might wobble at first but could ultimately recover. What it means for bitcoin - Directionally constructive but cautious. If liquidity normalizes, crypto should benefit in theory — but plur daddy prefers gold over crypto and notes that trading crypto is “a tough bet” when accounting for the mental capital required. - His practical advice: this is a window where one could reasonably be bullish, but don’t be a hero — wait for observable “shifts in character” and positive market responses as liquidity improves before increasing risk exposure. At the time of his remarks BTC was trading around $87,053. The takeaway for crypto traders: monitor Fed RMP flows, fiscal impulse changes, market-implied rate cuts and any Fed chair news — these macro levers will likely set the tone for bitcoin in 2026. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

#BTC #ETF