FedRateDecisions

Traders are exiting their bets on a July Fed rate cut following the release of the June US job data. The US unemployment rate dropped below expectations, while the country also added more jobs than analysts expected.
This further strengthens the Fed’s case to wait and see the effects of the tariffs rather than rushing to cut rates.
Traders Increase Bets Against A Fed Rate Cut In July
Polymarket data shows that there is a 94% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged following the July 30 FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, CME FedWatch data shows that traders have also exited their bets for a rate cut this July.

As we reported earlier, the odds for a 25-basis-point (bps) Fed rate cut rose to around 25% amid hopes that Jerome Powell and the FOMC would bow to pressure from Donald Trump. However, the odds have sharply dropped to 4.7% following the release of the US Job data.

US Bureau of Labor data shows that the total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 147,000 in June, way above the expected 110,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, below expectations of 4,3%.
The market had been pricing in hopes of a July Fed rate cut based on these expectations since a declining labor market could motivate Powell and the FOMC to cut rates at the July 30 meeting.
Powell himself had left the door open to a July interest rate cut when he spoke at the ECB forum on Central Banking in Europe earlier this week. The Fed Chair remarked that he couldn’t say yet whether a July Fed rate cut would happen or not, and that it would depend on incoming data.
This US job data suggests that there is no need for the Fed to rush into cutting rates, as the labor market remains solid. Powell has hammered on this for a while, declaring that they are in a good position just to wait and assess the impact of the Trump tariffs.

#Fed #BTCReclaims110K #OneBigBeautifulBill #TexasBTCReserveBill #FedRateDecisions

The Last Month of the Year, Last Half of the Last Month

This week has been relatively stagnant with the price generally moving up and down. We've entered the most critical week of the month for the market. With the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank interest rate decisions, this week is particularly crucial. While a 25 basis point reduction is expected with 99% probability, inflationary statements might cause market pullbacks.

Bitcoin
Crypto and BTC started the week with a decline, then moved towards its weekly opening, and we saw a pump before closing. It could be a classic move for the price to rise until the FED announcement and then fall afterward with the statements. Generally, the market tends to move in one direction until the news and then reverse afterward. Therefore, it's important to be cautious. It seems more logical to make purchases with gradual pullbacks until Trump becomes president and then let it run its course.

As I mentioned last week, opening the year too high might bring a sharp decline at the beginning of the new year. Or we might expect contrary movements like a sharp upward movement in the new year if it falls too much. This week's implied volatility range is 88.5k - 120.5k.

Ethereum

ETH, which opened November at 2500 and December at 3700, is testing the 4000 resistance. After a sharp sell-off at the beginning of the week, it's slowly climbing up but still hasn't met expectations due to its weakness against BTC. I think the price will move more sharply with sustainability above 4100, but I believe it should proceed with confirmation. One shouldn't move too confidently before 4-hour and daily closings.

This week's Put/Call Ratio is 0.51, and the max pain price appears to be 3700. Implied volatility can be expected similar to last week at 3200-4700.

ETHBTC

Although weakness continues, as I mentioned last week, it looks positive as long as it stays above 0.0348. I think the main movement will progress when it stays above the purple box of 0.042.

#December2024 #BTCNewATH #ETHHits4KAgain #BitcoinKeyZone #FedRateDecisions

Федеральная резервная система США по итогам заседания 29 января 2025 года сохранила ключевую процентную ставку без изменений.
✔️ Как я и ожидал, ФРС приняла решение сохранить ключевую процентную ставку в диапазоне 4,25–4,5%.
🔈 Ключевые тезисы ФРС:
Экономика: ВВП США в 2024 году, вероятно, превысит 2%, экономика остается сильной.
💸 Рынок труда: Безработица стабильно низкая, рынок труда охладился, но остается устойчивым.
💸 Инфляция: Подходит к целевому уровню, но все еще немного повышена.
💸 Риски: Баланс между инфляцией и рынком труда считается удовлетворительным.
Джером Пауэлл подчеркнул, что денежно-кредитная политика ФРС постепенно становится менее жесткой, однако текущий уровень ставки остается выше нейтрального. Также он отметил, что ФРС намерена «терпеливо ждать и наблюдать», оценивая влияние экономических и политических факторов.
🌐 Политика и внешние риски:
❗️ Пауэлл отказался комментировать слова Дональда Трампа и заявил, что не контактировал с президентом.
❗️ Новая администрация вносит неопределенность в экономические прогнозы, но ФРС пока не видит причин для резких изменений своей политики.
❗️ Возможный диапазон новых торговых пошлин очень широкий, но их влияние на потребителей пока неясно.
💵 ФРС и криптовалюты:
Пауэлл прокомментировал ситуацию в криптоиндустрии:
✔️ Банки могут работать с криптоинвесторами, если соблюдают управление рисками.
✔️ Было бы полезно иметь более строгий регулирующий аппарат для криптовалютного сектора.
⭐ Реакция рынков:
На фоне заседания ФРС фондовый рынок отреагировал снижением:
🔻 S&P 500: -0,2%
🔻 Nasdaq: -0,3%
🔻 Dow Jones: -0,2%
Криптовалютный рынок продемонстрировал умеренную волатильность:
💵 Биткоин (BTC): $100,190 → $104,040 (+2,07%)
💵 Эфириум (ETH): $3,042 → $3,137 (+0,28%)
$BTC $ETH $XRP #BTC #PowellSpeech #FedRateDecisions

#FederalReserve #TrendingTopic