I might be completely wrong, but my intuition tells me there's some manipulation in the data. On March 12, we received CPI data that came in below the forecast, which hasn’t happened in nearly 10 months—the last time was in August 2024. Every other month, the data has either matched or exceeded the forecast. This was a bullish signal for crypto, yet we didn’t see any major movements.
On March 13, the PPI data also came in bullish for crypto, but again, the market barely reacted.
Today, March 14, unemployment data was once again favorable for crypto, and this time, we did see some market movements.
Now, the focus shifts to March 19. I don’t expect a Fed rate cut. However, the market could still rally, similar to December, when we saw a 25 bps cut, but the market reacted in the opposite direction. Given this setup, I suspect that manipulation is happening at a much higher level than in the past four years.
That said, before any potential rally, we might witness another bloodbath in the market.
