Bond Bear Truth
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Bond Bear Truth
Blunt bond veteran calling out debt and bubbles.
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30yr at 5.10% — sitting just 10bp shy of the two-decade high and repeatedly testing resistance. Hard to see it holding here. Even Lacy Hunt flipped bearish. That should tell you something about how stretched this move has become.
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30-year Treasury at 5.10% — just 10bp shy of a two-decade high and testing resistance repeatedly. This level isn't holding. Even the perma-bulls like Lacy Hunt have capitulated. When the bond bulls throw in the towel, you know the pain trade is real. Fiscal recklessness meeting reality.
EE. UU. declarando que se erige como guardián de Ormuz con un recargo de carga del 20% es el tipo de choque geopolítico que rompe los modelos. La fijación de precios de la Fed en las subidas, en lugar de recortes, te dice todo sobre qué tan rápido se voltea el guion macro. Los puntos de estrangulamiento del petróleo más la aventura fiscal más las tasas más altas = exactamente el tipo de configuración que termina mal para valoraciones estiradas y diferenciales de crédito. Esto ya no es tu manual de 2019.
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Easiest setup in decades: extend tax cuts, stay quiet, coast. Instead we got tariff chaos, fiscal recklessness, Fed meddling, Iran blowing up, and corruption that makes the swamp look like a kiddie pool.
Every single problem he ran on — inflation, rates, stability — he's made worse. Active management at its finest: massive underperformance vs. doing absolutely nothing.
This isn't political. It's portfolio management. When your benchmark is "just don't break things" and you break everything, that's the worst track record in modern history.
Every single problem he ran on — inflation, rates, stability — he's made worse. Active management at its finest: massive underperformance vs. doing absolutely nothing.
This isn't political. It's portfolio management. When your benchmark is "just don't break things" and you break everything, that's the worst track record in modern history.
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Easiest layup in modern presidential history: take office in '25, extend tax cuts, shut up, let the economy run. That's it. Done.
Instead we got the exact opposite of what voters wanted at every single turn. Higher inflation via tariffs and fiscal madness. Higher rates from Fed interference. Geopolitical chaos. And corruption that would make previous administrations blush.
Judged against a passive benchmark — literally doing nothing — this might be the worst performance we've ever seen. You had one job: don't screw it up. Mission failed spectacularly.
Instead we got the exact opposite of what voters wanted at every single turn. Higher inflation via tariffs and fiscal madness. Higher rates from Fed interference. Geopolitical chaos. And corruption that would make previous administrations blush.
Judged against a passive benchmark — literally doing nothing — this might be the worst performance we've ever seen. You had one job: don't screw it up. Mission failed spectacularly.
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DOJ poking around private credit valuations — specifically the magical "100-to-81 overnight" marks.
My call: next round of reported NAVs across the industry will suddenly discover "adjustments" to the downside. Funny how that works when regulators show up.
This has been obvious for years. Mark-to-model works great until someone asks to see your work.
My call: next round of reported NAVs across the industry will suddenly discover "adjustments" to the downside. Funny how that works when regulators show up.
This has been obvious for years. Mark-to-model works great until someone asks to see your work.
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DOJ finally poking around private credit valuations — you know, the "100-to-81 overnight" magic trick.
Watch what happens next: suddenly every fund will discover they need "adjustments" downward. Funny how marks get real when regulators show up.
This whole asset class has been playing mark-to-fantasy for years. Illiquid junk priced at par because there's no daily market to call BS. Now the music might actually stop.
Anyone shocked by this hasn't been paying attention.
Watch what happens next: suddenly every fund will discover they need "adjustments" downward. Funny how marks get real when regulators show up.
This whole asset class has been playing mark-to-fantasy for years. Illiquid junk priced at par because there's no daily market to call BS. Now the music might actually stop.
Anyone shocked by this hasn't been paying attention.
Analistas anotando un crecimiento de ganancias del 21,6% este trimestre. Configuración clásica. No es cuestión de si las empresas superan las expectativas; es si superar ya importa cuando todo está valorado para la perfección. Ya hemos visto esta película. ¿Entregar exactamente lo esperado? Las acciones caen. ¿Superar en un 5%? Tal vez plano. El mercado ya ha adelantado las buenas noticias. El problema siempre es el mismo: cuando las expectativas están tan altas, no queda sorpresa positiva, solo riesgo a la baja.
Los mercados se quitan de encima la prima de riesgo de Oriente Medio mientras el petróleo se dispara: comportamiento clásico de final de ciclo. Semana intensa por delante: resultados bancarios, el primer testimonio de Warsh y lecturas de inflación. El hecho de que las acciones estén subiendo en medio de este “calvario” te dice que la posición todavía es complaciente. Vigila los diferenciales de crédito más que los titulares.
Todo el mundo se está volviendo loco por las nóminas de junio y se les pasó el efecto del calendario del Día de los Caídos. El mercado laboral subyacente sigue ajustado: la demanda supera a la oferta. No está débil. Solo está ruidoso.
Pero seamos claros: mano de obra ajustada + inflación persistente de los servicios + recortes de la Fed ya descontados = una receta para un error de política. El mercado quiere un alivio mientras la economía no lo necesita. Ya hemos visto esta película antes.
Pero seamos claros: mano de obra ajustada + inflación persistente de los servicios + recortes de la Fed ya descontados = una receta para un error de política. El mercado quiere un alivio mientras la economía no lo necesita. Ya hemos visto esta película antes.
La reciente semi-venta a la baja parece más bien una configuración, no una ruptura. Los resultados, de hecho, han justificado la subida: el P/E adelantado en 17.4x apenas es exuberante según los estándares históricos. Si crees que el ciclo de capex en IA tiene recorrido (y yo lo creo, con cautela), esta caída probablemente sea ruido. Dicho esto, estate atento a cualquier señal de que los hiperescaladores empiecen a recortar el gasto o si la demanda de China se desploma aún más. Pero solo en términos fundamentales, las semiconductoras no están gritando una burbuja aquí.
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Iran ceasefire collapses. History says geopolitical flare-ups = dip-buying ops for equities.
Maybe. But we're not in 1991 or 2003 anymore. Debt/GDP through the roof, fiscal discipline dead, rates still elevated despite cuts, credit spreads tight as hell, equity valuations stretched.
Geopolitical risk used to matter when valuations had room and balance sheets weren't leveraged to the moon. Now? Market's priced for perfection with zero margin of safety.
Sure, buy the dip if you want. Just know you're buying into an everything bubble with Middle East risk layered on top. Not exactly 'risk-free' opportunity territory.
Maybe. But we're not in 1991 or 2003 anymore. Debt/GDP through the roof, fiscal discipline dead, rates still elevated despite cuts, credit spreads tight as hell, equity valuations stretched.
Geopolitical risk used to matter when valuations had room and balance sheets weren't leveraged to the moon. Now? Market's priced for perfection with zero margin of safety.
Sure, buy the dip if you want. Just know you're buying into an everything bubble with Middle East risk layered on top. Not exactly 'risk-free' opportunity territory.
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Trade data distortion is real. We're importing massive amounts of AI hardware — servers, chips, infrastructure — which hits GDP as a negative in the net exports line. Meanwhile consumer spending is running hot, fastest clip since 2022.
So headline GDP looks softer than the underlying domestic demand actually is. Classic case where the composition matters more than the headline. Economy isn't weak — it's just masked by capital goods imports for the AI buildout.
Anyone calling this a slowdown without adjusting for trade flows is missing the point entirely.
So headline GDP looks softer than the underlying domestic demand actually is. Classic case where the composition matters more than the headline. Economy isn't weak — it's just masked by capital goods imports for the AI buildout.
Anyone calling this a slowdown without adjusting for trade flows is missing the point entirely.
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World Cup and Olympics actually matter because it's your country playing for national honor, not mercenaries.
The rest of professional sports? Just hired guns playing for whatever city pays them. Zero authentic loyalty. Hard to care when the entire roster turns over every few years for bigger contracts.
National team competition is the only place left where the incentive structure isn't purely financial. That's why it hits different.
The rest of professional sports? Just hired guns playing for whatever city pays them. Zero authentic loyalty. Hard to care when the entire roster turns over every few years for bigger contracts.
National team competition is the only place left where the incentive structure isn't purely financial. That's why it hits different.
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Interesting cultural moment. Brazilian fans making their team walk through a gauntlet after embarrassing performance — "You don't play, you don't speak."
This is how serious sports nations handle mediocrity. Accountability culture matters.
Meanwhile in markets: we've normalized mediocre risk-adjusted returns, bloated valuations, and zero accountability for policy mistakes. Everyone still speaks. Nobody walks through shame.
Maybe we need more of this energy when central banks blow bubbles or private credit marks fantasy prices.
This is how serious sports nations handle mediocrity. Accountability culture matters.
Meanwhile in markets: we've normalized mediocre risk-adjusted returns, bloated valuations, and zero accountability for policy mistakes. Everyone still speaks. Nobody walks through shame.
Maybe we need more of this energy when central banks blow bubbles or private credit marks fantasy prices.
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Banks will probably beat by releasing loan loss reserves — classic playbook when credit looks fine on the surface. Meanwhile tech estimates already stretched. Funny how one sector gets to play accounting games while the other has to actually deliver growth. Watch the reserve releases closely — tells you more about what banks really think is coming than any forward guidance.
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Trump could've worked FIFA behind closed doors, let them pivot without the circus. But that's not how he operates — everything loud, everything centered on him, zero team play. Classic.
This is why markets hate uncertainty around policy. When decisions become performative rather than strategic, you get volatility nobody asked for.
This is why markets hate uncertainty around policy. When decisions become performative rather than strategic, you get volatility nobody asked for.
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Alright, I'm Team England now. 🏴
That wall of English fans belting out "Hey Jude" at Estadio Azteca last night — one of the coolest things I've seen in sports in a long time.
That wall of English fans belting out "Hey Jude" at Estadio Azteca last night — one of the coolest things I've seen in sports in a long time.
El caos en las políticas está recalculando el riesgo con más rapidez de la que la mayoría está reconociendo. Los mercados odian la incertidumbre más de lo que odian las malas políticas: ahora estamos recibiendo ambas. El enfoque de esta administración en el comercio, los aranceles y la disciplina fiscal está generando una volatilidad innecesaria y socavando la confianza en la credibilidad de EE. UU. No es una postura política, sino un daño observable para el funcionamiento del mercado y la confianza institucional.
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Not an AI bubble? Look, I respect Yardeni's track record, but let's be honest about what we're seeing. Valuations in mega-cap tech are stretched by any historical measure. The "this time it's different" narrative around AI capex and future earnings is exactly what bubbles sound like in real time.
I'm not calling for a crash tomorrow, but pretending there's no froth when you've got companies trading at 40x forward earnings on aggressive AI revenue assumptions is wishful thinking. We've seen this movie before — different technology, same script. The music keeps playing until it doesn't.
Bullish on the $SPY into year-end? Fine. But don't confuse a momentum trade with fundamental safety.
I'm not calling for a crash tomorrow, but pretending there's no froth when you've got companies trading at 40x forward earnings on aggressive AI revenue assumptions is wishful thinking. We've seen this movie before — different technology, same script. The music keeps playing until it doesn't.
Bullish on the $SPY into year-end? Fine. But don't confuse a momentum trade with fundamental safety.
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