The Bitcoin bull market narrative is being put to the test as traders weigh a potential $100K retest against the backdrop of the asset’s strongest monthly close in history.
Bitcoin (BTC) kicked off June with a record-high monthly close, yet market sentiment remains mixed. Traders are now watching five key trends as the leading cryptocurrency navigates between sustained institutional selling, weakening macro indicators, and potential new highs.
1. $100K Retest Looms Despite Monthly Milestone
Bitcoin closed May with an 11% gain, marking its highest monthly close ever near $105,700. However, bearish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and persistent volatility have sparked concerns over a possible correction toward the $100,000 support zone.
“Weekly bearish divergence locked in — and a potential bearish retest forming,” trader Jelle noted. Others, including CrypNuevo, forecast a rebound from $100K to $113K, eyeing concentrated order book liquidity above current levels.
2. Fed in Focus as Inflation Dips and Jobs Data Weakens
Markets are turning their attention to the U.S. Federal Reserve and labor market data. While inflation, as measured by the PCE index, has cooled, interest rates remain elevated, creating pressure on risk assets like BTC.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s June 2 speech and political pressure from President Trump to lower rates have become focal points. According to Mosaic, declining DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) levels may act as a tailwind for Bitcoin, gold, and other non-fiat assets.
3. Hodler Behavior Signals a Transition Phase
Recent on-chain data suggests that the market is in flux. CryptoQuant reports:
Over $1 billion in stablecoins exited Binance in late May.
Long-term holders are slowing accumulation.
Different wallet cohorts show diverging strategies.
The result? A market pause that may precede either a consolidation phase or renewed upside — depending on how retail and institutional flows evolve.
4. Whales Are Selling as Retail Buys the Top
Wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have been quietly reducing their exposure since Bitcoin hit $81K, distributing steadily up to the $110K peak. In contrast, retail wallets are piling in at current levels.
Santiment warned that recent whale spikes often coincide with local tops. The analytics firm cited heavy whale activity around May 22 as a signal of “profit-taking,” suggesting that the market may be closer to a reversal than a breakout.
5. $120K Could Be the Next Top — MVRV Band Shows
Glassnode's MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio analysis shows BTC is trading between the +0.5σ and +1σ bands, historically a zone where local tops form.
+0.5σ = $100,200
+1σ = $119,400
Crossing above +1σ would signal “too-good-to-ignore” profits, potentially triggering mass selling. Until then, the bull run may have fuel, but momentum remains fragile.
Bitcoin sits at a critical juncture, balancing technical weakness, profit-taking, and macro uncertainty against the strength of its monthly close and broader bullish narratives. Whether $100K serves as a launchpad or a pitstop for further downside will depend on this week’s macro data, Fed rhetoric, and market sentiment evolution, according to Cointelegraph.
