小提琴手-蝉噪 Cicada Noise
High-Frequency Trader
6.9 Years
超短线选手，热点小币现货/合约保姆级策略分享
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In September 2022, she was 32 years old.
When I had just recovered from the drunkenness of graduating from college,
she was already taking her child to complete the enrollment procedures for first grade.
These two people,
six months later,
a fresh graduate and a mature professional woman became a couple.
I will also do a live stream for the #100U Turnaround Plan because of her.
If everyone wants to see the story later, I will slowly write it for you all.
When I had just recovered from the drunkenness of graduating from college,
she was already taking her child to complete the enrollment procedures for first grade.
These two people,
six months later,
a fresh graduate and a mature professional woman became a couple.
I will also do a live stream for the #100U Turnaround Plan because of her.
If everyone wants to see the story later, I will slowly write it for you all.
test
End
30 m 01 s
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测试
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16 m 16 s
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Trust him, it's better to trust me, I am Qin Shi Huang
If a stranger sends you 130,000 u
What would you do?
What would you do?
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Is the cow still there? The next focus is to bet on this direction______
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Text logic is zero, expression ability is negative
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Tonight may first drop and then rise, with a downward target of 102777, and if it rises, the target is 109733.
Since the US stock market closed (around 6 AM Beijing time) until the US Senate voted to pass the (stablecoin bill), the policy benefits that have supported this rise have largely run out. The only event that can really affect market sentiment now is the interest rate decision at 2 AM on the 19th (i.e., whether to announce a rate cut).
There is a 99.9% chance that there will be no rate cut this month. Meanwhile, the M2 data for the dollar published last month showed a significant decline from the annual peak on April 14 (indicating a reduction in money in the market). If there is no rate cut this month (indicating that money in the market will not increase this month), and with the declining trend of money in the market, the ongoing risks of the Middle East war, and the uncertainties brought by US debt and tariffs not being resolved, the rational choice for major funds is likely to be to stay on the sidelines. The continuous decline in BTC contract holdings supports this view, and last night, funds have already begun to exit the US stock market.
There is a 99.9% chance that there will be no rate cut this month. Meanwhile, the M2 data for the dollar published last month showed a significant decline from the annual peak on April 14 (indicating a reduction in money in the market). If there is no rate cut this month (indicating that money in the market will not increase this month), and with the declining trend of money in the market, the ongoing risks of the Middle East war, and the uncertainties brought by US debt and tariffs not being resolved, the rational choice for major funds is likely to be to stay on the sidelines. The continuous decline in BTC contract holdings supports this view, and last night, funds have already begun to exit the US stock market.
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A brief introduction: The BSC token with the last four digits 4444 has a lot of them.
Big Brother Coin, just happens to have 4 fours at the end. Tribute to CZ
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Musk and Trump are not really going to reconcile; BTC may still face a sharp decline.
Musk and Trump had a heated exchange last night, causing the risk market to accelerate its decline. Stocks and tokens related to Musk plummeted. As rumors of a 'possible reconciliation' emerged during Asia trading hours, the risk market immediately rebounded in line with retail investors' bottom-fishing behavior, with long positions continuing to accumulate.
Tonight's employment data temporarily alleviated recession risks, coupled with signals of easing relations between Trump and Musk, resulting in a rapid rise in the risk market. Market sentiment has returned to the buying range, but the actual risks of recession and war have not dissipated.
But why are Musk and Trump exchanging insults after Musk left the Trump administration and after dialogue between China and the U.S. on tariff issues? To indirectly prove that neither side has used their power for personal gain, indicating that both may be on the verge of a complete break with their behind-the-scenes financiers. This suggests that there are already many people unhappy with Trump and Musk behind the Trump administration. Those whom Musk offended during his time at DOGE will need to be dealt with financially, so there is a high likelihood of a new round of plummeting, targeting below 0.13.
Tonight's employment data temporarily alleviated recession risks, coupled with signals of easing relations between Trump and Musk, resulting in a rapid rise in the risk market. Market sentiment has returned to the buying range, but the actual risks of recession and war have not dissipated.
But why are Musk and Trump exchanging insults after Musk left the Trump administration and after dialogue between China and the U.S. on tariff issues? To indirectly prove that neither side has used their power for personal gain, indicating that both may be on the verge of a complete break with their behind-the-scenes financiers. This suggests that there are already many people unhappy with Trump and Musk behind the Trump administration. Those whom Musk offended during his time at DOGE will need to be dealt with financially, so there is a high likelihood of a new round of plummeting, targeting below 0.13.
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BTC may welcome a long-awaited turning point tonight.
U.S. Treasury yields fell (risk-off), gold rose (risk-off), but the dollar fluctuated at low levels (dollar demand has not increased due to war risks), while risk markets maintained a slow upward trend (but tariff risks remain, and actual prices have not changed since May; the wait-and-see sentiment has surged with the slow rise), indicating that both war and economic risks are currently on the rise.
Meanwhile, $BTC continues to release information about institutional and listed companies buying in, but actual prices have not seen significant increases and remain in a weak range. Although there are still large withdrawals of $BTC from exchanges to match the news-driven strong demand, it actually indicates that there is not much real purchasing power in the market, and it requires both news and chips to stabilize sentiment.
Meanwhile, $BTC continues to release information about institutional and listed companies buying in, but actual prices have not seen significant increases and remain in a weak range. Although there are still large withdrawals of $BTC from exchanges to match the news-driven strong demand, it actually indicates that there is not much real purchasing power in the market, and it requires both news and chips to stabilize sentiment.
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Will BTC continue to surge or start to correct next?
⛴️ On May 22, BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of $934 million, a rare scale since the launch of the BTC spot ETF, with trend predictions at the end of the article.
Previously, dates with similar scale net inflows and market performance are as follows:
a. March 12, 2024 (Trump locks in Republican nomination early): reached a historical high of 73650 on March 13, reached a historical high of 73777 on March 14, then entered a five-month downtrend.
b. November 7, 2024 (Trump confirms election): slight fluctuations, full turnover, BTC continuously sets new historical highs.
c. November 11, 2024: a single-day increase of 11.6%.
Previously, dates with similar scale net inflows and market performance are as follows:
a. March 12, 2024 (Trump locks in Republican nomination early): reached a historical high of 73650 on March 13, reached a historical high of 73777 on March 14, then entered a five-month downtrend.
b. November 7, 2024 (Trump confirms election): slight fluctuations, full turnover, BTC continuously sets new historical highs.
c. November 11, 2024: a single-day increase of 11.6%.
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I also hope that the eternal bull market will begin, but is it possible?
$BTC
He Baorong ultimately lost Li Yaohui.
It's like you eventually have to understand what it means to have the heavens above.
Obsession, useless.
If you think I am scolding you, congratulations, you have a passing judgment.
BTC has fallen from 105800 to this point, and the crypto market is still thriving due to ETF inflows and MicroStrategy's increased holdings, firmly believing that the rain will come and boldly claiming that there is no possibility of a decline.
Thus, several historically significant events have been naturally overlooked.
1. Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating to Aa1 for the first time in history, and Moody's is considered a more 'conservative' rating agency compared to S&P and Fitch, with significantly greater influence than Fitch, both being in the top tier.
He Baorong ultimately lost Li Yaohui.
It's like you eventually have to understand what it means to have the heavens above.
Obsession, useless.
If you think I am scolding you, congratulations, you have a passing judgment.
BTC has fallen from 105800 to this point, and the crypto market is still thriving due to ETF inflows and MicroStrategy's increased holdings, firmly believing that the rain will come and boldly claiming that there is no possibility of a decline.
Thus, several historically significant events have been naturally overlooked.
1. Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating to Aa1 for the first time in history, and Moody's is considered a more 'conservative' rating agency compared to S&P and Fitch, with significantly greater influence than Fitch, both being in the top tier.
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91.7% probability of not lowering interest rates in June, the current issue is that it may not be until September that rates are lowered
Why is Tuesday (May 13) a reasonable pullback point?
1. Since the Federal Reserve's monetary policy press conference last week, it has continuously emphasized economic uncertainty and the guiding significance of hard economic data for the Fed's interest rate cuts. The probability of not cutting interest rates in June has been pushed up to 91.9% in such statements.
Tonight (May 13), there happens to be a piece of hard economic data to be released: U.S. CPI month-on-month/year-on-year for the end of April.
In any case, the probability of not cutting interest rates has already soared to 91.9%; what difference does it make if it goes a little higher?
2. The trade negotiations between Japan and the U.S. have long been priced in by the market, and now the good news has all been released.
Looking back further, in 2018, during Trump's first term, a similar trade war had already occurred, and the market had long anticipated both sides sitting at the negotiation table. What might be the next action to be anticipated by the market?
Tonight (May 13), there happens to be a piece of hard economic data to be released: U.S. CPI month-on-month/year-on-year for the end of April.
In any case, the probability of not cutting interest rates has already soared to 91.9%; what difference does it make if it goes a little higher?
2. The trade negotiations between Japan and the U.S. have long been priced in by the market, and now the good news has all been released.
Looking back further, in 2018, during Trump's first term, a similar trade war had already occurred, and the market had long anticipated both sides sitting at the negotiation table. What might be the next action to be anticipated by the market?
See original
Why is Tuesday (May 13) a reasonable pullback point?
1. Since the Federal Reserve's monetary policy press conference last week, it has continuously emphasized economic uncertainty and the guiding significance of hard economic data for the Fed's interest rate cuts. The probability of not cutting interest rates in June has been pushed up to 91.9% in such statements.
Tonight (May 13), there happens to be a piece of hard economic data to be released: U.S. CPI month-on-month/year-on-year for the end of April.
In any case, the probability of not cutting interest rates has already soared to 91.9%; what difference does it make if it goes a little higher?
2. The trade negotiations between Japan and the U.S. have long been priced in by the market, and now the good news has all been released.
Looking back further, in 2018, during Trump's first term, a similar trade war had already occurred, and the market had long anticipated both sides sitting at the negotiation table. What might be the next action to be anticipated by the market?
Tonight (May 13), there happens to be a piece of hard economic data to be released: U.S. CPI month-on-month/year-on-year for the end of April.
In any case, the probability of not cutting interest rates has already soared to 91.9%; what difference does it make if it goes a little higher?
2. The trade negotiations between Japan and the U.S. have long been priced in by the market, and now the good news has all been released.
Looking back further, in 2018, during Trump's first term, a similar trade war had already occurred, and the market had long anticipated both sides sitting at the negotiation table. What might be the next action to be anticipated by the market?
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Since everyone is unhappy about BTC's surge, let me say something to make you happy.
The mountain wind speaks slowly, only indicating warmth and cold.
BTC took 18 days to rise from 85k back above 100k, but I haven't seen much laughter around us.
Surprised?
Since no one dared to get on board,
I'll say something to make everyone happy:
This rise is not sustainable.
This rise is just to lock in more cheap liquidity before the flood truly inundates.
Can the upward trend continue?
Has the tariff panic eased?
Has economic certainty increased?
I don't think so.
The 10-year US treasury bond, as the anchor for global asset pricing, is still declining in price, with funds continuing to flow out and its yield rising.
BTC took 18 days to rise from 85k back above 100k, but I haven't seen much laughter around us.
Surprised?
Since no one dared to get on board,
I'll say something to make everyone happy:
This rise is not sustainable.
This rise is just to lock in more cheap liquidity before the flood truly inundates.
Can the upward trend continue?
Has the tariff panic eased?
Has economic certainty increased?
I don't think so.
The 10-year US treasury bond, as the anchor for global asset pricing, is still declining in price, with funds continuing to flow out and its yield rising.
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#BTC突破100K
But this wave has been a bit too anxious.
The trade agreement between the US and UK has no real significant meaning; Trump's verbal attacks often end in drawing doors, and the 10-year US Treasury yield remains above 4.3.
The Russo-Ukrainian war is entering its final stages, and Israel is only fiercely targeting Iran and Russia's pawns. The US's core revenue source, arms consumption, urgently needs new contractors, and right now, South Asia's India and Pakistan are the best choices.
In other words, the real demand for safe-haven assets has not disappeared because of a few verbal attacks; Buffett's cash reserves remain at a historical high.
So, should we chase high prices this time?
$BTC
But this wave has been a bit too anxious.
The trade agreement between the US and UK has no real significant meaning; Trump's verbal attacks often end in drawing doors, and the 10-year US Treasury yield remains above 4.3.
The Russo-Ukrainian war is entering its final stages, and Israel is only fiercely targeting Iran and Russia's pawns. The US's core revenue source, arms consumption, urgently needs new contractors, and right now, South Asia's India and Pakistan are the best choices.
In other words, the real demand for safe-haven assets has not disappeared because of a few verbal attacks; Buffett's cash reserves remain at a historical high.
So, should we chase high prices this time?
$BTC
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Power Determines Price; At present, does power favor BTC?
Gold has slightly retreated but remains strong, the dollar index saw a brief rebound but has not broken above 100, US bond yields briefly retreated before returning to high levels, and Nasdaq futures rose slightly before quickly retreating.
Safe-haven demand has not rapidly diminished due to the morning's US-China trade negotiation news, and even formed new potential support due to the escalation of the India-Pakistan conflict, but BTC indeed received solid emotional support from New Hampshire passing the strategic Bitcoin reserve bill.
$BTC
The conclusion is that capital remains in a wait-and-see attitude regarding the risks in the dollar market, and BTC has a probability of once again exhibiting an independent trend as an alternative safe-haven asset.
Safe-haven demand has not rapidly diminished due to the morning's US-China trade negotiation news, and even formed new potential support due to the escalation of the India-Pakistan conflict, but BTC indeed received solid emotional support from New Hampshire passing the strategic Bitcoin reserve bill.
$BTC
The conclusion is that capital remains in a wait-and-see attitude regarding the risks in the dollar market, and BTC has a probability of once again exhibiting an independent trend as an alternative safe-haven asset.
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More than 90% of international events are staged; understanding this, you can turn 100,000 into 1 million this year.
$BTC
Today (May 6), gold continues to be strong, the dollar is oscillating at low levels, U.S. bond yields continue to rise, NASDAQ futures are down, and although BTC is still in a downward trend, it has not fallen significantly.
Overall, the real demand for hedging is trending towards a rebound, but BTC shows sustained buying demand. Currently, Iran is facing U.S. oil sanctions, and before OPEC's successful production increase, the oil supply channels from Iran have been removed, which indirectly drives crude oil tightening in the short term, and the correlation between BTC and crude oil prices is rising.
There is a possibility that behind this phenomenon, the mysterious Iran is viewing BTC as a channel to bypass sanctions. Because of this, Iran has likely become an important partner in the U.S. manipulation of the BTC market. The so-called oil sanctions only prevent 'non-U.S.' countries from purchasing Iranian oil.
Today (May 6), gold continues to be strong, the dollar is oscillating at low levels, U.S. bond yields continue to rise, NASDAQ futures are down, and although BTC is still in a downward trend, it has not fallen significantly.
Overall, the real demand for hedging is trending towards a rebound, but BTC shows sustained buying demand. Currently, Iran is facing U.S. oil sanctions, and before OPEC's successful production increase, the oil supply channels from Iran have been removed, which indirectly drives crude oil tightening in the short term, and the correlation between BTC and crude oil prices is rising.
There is a possibility that behind this phenomenon, the mysterious Iran is viewing BTC as a channel to bypass sanctions. Because of this, Iran has likely become an important partner in the U.S. manipulation of the BTC market. The so-called oil sanctions only prevent 'non-U.S.' countries from purchasing Iranian oil.
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It seems that to be an internet celebrity, one must learn to confidently talk nonsense.
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DeepSeek Beginner User
**Trump urges interest rate cuts, Federal Reserve: playing deaf, rates unchanged!**🧊
Despite Trump shouting on social media that 'inflation is gone, lower rates quickly!', Powell is completely ignoring him—interest rates? Holding steady!
📍Key point:
On May 7, the Federal Reserve is almost certain to maintain interest rates at 4.3%, unmoved.
The PCE inflation indicator is still above the target, but has started to cool down since March, and a rate cut could have been considered... but!
Last week, Trump threw a big surprise—tariffs across the board, which complicated the inflation outlook again!
👊 Powell and the Federal Reserve officials now just want to observe the situation first; no one dares to act rashly.
Economists frankly say: if it weren't for Trump pushing too hard, the Federal Reserve might have already started cutting rates!
🧠 The logic is quite simple:
No tariffs = can lower rates to stimulate the economy
With tariffs = inflation may come back, must hold high rates
💣 What will be the outcome?
Wall Street speculates: either a rate cut in July or a delay until September, unless tariffs lead to layoffs and a surge in unemployment, then the Federal Reserve might give in early!
Despite Trump shouting on social media that 'inflation is gone, lower rates quickly!', Powell is completely ignoring him—interest rates? Holding steady!
📍Key point:
On May 7, the Federal Reserve is almost certain to maintain interest rates at 4.3%, unmoved.
The PCE inflation indicator is still above the target, but has started to cool down since March, and a rate cut could have been considered... but!
Last week, Trump threw a big surprise—tariffs across the board, which complicated the inflation outlook again!
👊 Powell and the Federal Reserve officials now just want to observe the situation first; no one dares to act rashly.
Economists frankly say: if it weren't for Trump pushing too hard, the Federal Reserve might have already started cutting rates!
🧠 The logic is quite simple:
No tariffs = can lower rates to stimulate the economy
With tariffs = inflation may come back, must hold high rates
💣 What will be the outcome?
Wall Street speculates: either a rate cut in July or a delay until September, unless tariffs lead to layoffs and a surge in unemployment, then the Federal Reserve might give in early!
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