The mountain wind speaks slowly, only indicating warmth and cold.
BTC took 18 days to rise from 85k back above 100k, but I haven't seen much laughter around us.
Surprised?
Since no one dared to get on board,
I'll say something to make everyone happy:
This rise is not sustainable.
This rise is just to lock in more cheap liquidity before the flood truly inundates.
Can the upward trend continue?
Has the tariff panic eased?
Has economic certainty increased?
I don't think so.
The 10-year US treasury bond, as the anchor for global asset pricing, is still declining in price, with funds continuing to flow out and its yield rising.
In fact, the bottoming of the 10-year US treasury yield is the signal for the main force to see market certainty and officially decide to accelerate accumulation, pushing the bull market to truly arrive.
- Green: US treasury yield; Blue: BTC price
Why?
There is a basic concept:
The 10-year US treasury yield is widely regarded as the risk-free rate, supported by the absolute credit of the dollar (from economy + military), with central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and large financial institutions (pension funds, insurance companies, etc.) holding large amounts of US debt as reserve assets.
In other words, the fluctuations in the 10-year US treasury yield largely represent the preference of large institutions towards the dollar market, which inevitably influences global asset prices.
Currently, the sustained high yield of US debt has actually confirmed the large capital's hesitance but genuine indifference towards the dollar market.
But at the same time, the US stock market remains strong.
The reason turned out to be a statement from Trump saying, 'Now is the best time to buy stocks,' along with a vague trade agreement from both the UK and the US.
Actually,
A bit funny.
The trade agreement reached by the UK and the US, which have been top allies since 1941, has little practical significance.
Moreover, the UK is the only country among the top ten trading partners of the US where it maintains a trade surplus, with a surplus of $11.9 billion in 2024 (the US exported $79.9 billion to the UK and imported $68.1 billion).
The great US stock market actually needs to rely on the president's emotional calls and the cordial camaraderie to maintain the bullish sentiment.
Haha.
No wonder Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway cash reserves have reached a historical high (the total cash and short-term treasury bonds increased to $347.7 billion); in such a dollar market, it is far from reaching the true inflection point of trend reversal.
The rise here is merely to create new evidence for the 'insider trading' narrative, so that when Trump is impeached for this reason in the future, it will also bring about a deeper pullback in the risk market.
'Are you saying he deliberately created evidence for his impeachment?'
Yes.
Trump has always been the Fed's designated actor; the eternal bull market in US stocks has long reached the stage of correction, and the economic soft landing is merely a fairy tale forcibly prolonged on the basis of false data.
The bubble in the US stock market is better to break free from than to be punctured by others, causing a sudden stampede.
The decline of the economy, rather than allowing it to be exposed by others, is better to hire a professional scapegoat to create new, more attention-grabbing reasons for recession.
'Then what was the purpose of the rally in between?'
To let capital know that Americans are always capable of warming up the market, remaining hesitant about the decision to sell off a large amount of dollars.
After all, a qualified falcon, even when deciding to enter the painful process of self-bursting the bubble, will not let competitors gain too much benefit.
Currently, Trump's words have effectively become an important indicator for the global economic market, instilling uncertainty deep in people's hearts worldwide.
From this perspective, Trump's analysis of the situation, resource allocation, and understanding of people's hearts is indeed great for the United States.
Why has trading been difficult recently?
Because you and I are always a part of the play.
The counterpart is an all-resources-consuming beast.
And you and I are merely struggling mortals like wild grass.
In the eyes of the main players, you and I are just
It's just temporary irrigation from a well for rice fields.
Looking up at the sky the size of a well all day, lamenting the heavens above, envying the endless roads.
Is there a way to break the deadlock?
Of course there is.
Although seeking and not obtaining is the norm in the world,
But there will always be those who seek and gain.
Why can't this person be you?
Follow me,
Let's explore the survival path of cattle and horses together.
Solemn statement: All of the above is just personal judgment, for learning and discussion purposes only, not investment advice, and assumes no responsibility for any similar consequences. Investment carries risks, and operations should be cautious.